Aussies: Tony Abbott redux?

I have noticed a few stories regarding former PM Abbott’s desire to make his way back to The Lodge. What would this mean for Australia?

It means that Tony has not learned from his immediate predecessor’s fate (i.e., Kevin Rudd’s). The consequence for Australia would be that the Liberal Party would be wiped out in the next general election. At this point in history, Malcolm can win elections (though even he is showing signs of weakness) – Tony cannot.

If polls count for anything, the first poll for 2016:
The LIBs are maintaining a 55:45 lead in two party preferred even though Malcolm is essentially running Abbot’s policies with a more human face
On preferred prime minister Malcolm now leads Shorten 81:19.

So yes, had he been able to adequately and consistently articulate his platform, and had eliminated 80% of the self inflicted gaffes Abbot would have had Shorten on toast. But Tony is an intractable and brutally effective opposition leader. He created his own opportunity and then shot himself in the foot.

Once Turnbull has his own mandate and when that is delivered he can put the reptiles back in their cages. In the aftermath Turnbull vs Albanese might be a battle that would be both entertaining and beneficial to the nation.

What this would mean for Australia is not much. It is an ancient and haunted landscape, at mercy of the relentless grind of dust and heat for millions of years. Tony would not register to her, mean old girl that she is.

What it would mean for Australians? Well, I guess we get to see Tony want the lodge again and then not get within a ducks willy of the front gate. The party knows it wouldn’t sell, I should think.

Does Malcolm Turnbull have the power and the backing to kick Abbott out of the Liberal Party so he’d have to run for Warringah as an independent ?

If so then I think he’d be justified in doing so.

No he doesn’t, and if he did he wouldn’t.

If you’d paid due attention to the rise of Abbott it should be self evident that it’s preferable to have him inside the tent than outside.

Abbott’s more likely to get a seat in Cabinet than be turfed out.

Please be more mindful of history rather than expediency. He was PM and there have only been 29 of them, and 8 have been members of the Liberal Party. He won a election from Opposition and that’s been done only 5 times since WWII.
He’ll have an open invitation to any Liberal Party function whilst there is breath in his body.

Right, but a ship can’t have two captains and its pretty obvious from Abbott’s personality that he won’t quietly take a back seat. Never mind the fact he’s already pretty much straight out said he will try to challenge for the leadership again. He’s a liability to the Liberal party in that while he’s still around voting for Malcolm could very well see Abbott back as PM 6-12 months after the election.

If the PM steps down or is ousted, does that not necessitate a fresh national election in short order?

Not if it’s his own party doing the ousting. They’re still perfectly capable of governing, so there’s no need for an election.

If he had Rudd’s personal following and Turnbull had Gillard’s then there’d be some substance to go with the sizzle.

If he gets the numbers, he’s entitled to do that. Do you think he has the numbers now? If not, on what issue could he attract greater numbers in caucus?

You think that if Malcolm wins an election in say in October-16 and 6 months later Abbott would have the numbers to win a spill?

I don’t know, but I do think it will have a real effect that undecided swing voters who might otherwise support Malcolm will be put off for fear that Abbot will end up back in charge. And I also think Abbot will continue to make foolish public statements as if he was in charge and be constantly back seat driving. If Abbot actually cared about Australia rather than himself he’d accept a cushy Ambassador position or a UN delegate position and get out of the way.

Make him Ambassador to the UK so he can go and drink tea with the Royals he so much likes to grovel towards.

So your view is that the more undecideds who vote Turnbull (strengthening his mandate) the more likely it is Abbott could mount a challenge in the 12 months post election win.
Whereas if they vote against Turnbull (weakening his mandate) it’s less likely Abbott would challenge?

I think you better think that out again.

No, make him ambassador to the Holy See, so he can have afternoon tea with Cardinal Pell.

Thats not what I mean. I think if Abott sticks around and stays in the public eye the Libs will probably lose the next election due to his meddling. He is a deeply unpopular and polarizing figure and he will turn off moderate swing voters and push them to vote labour.