Australia votes 2010

In My Humble Opinion
1

It’s on.

Polls in East closed 45 minutes ago.
First returns due in next 15 minutes.

14 million voters, 150 electorates, area the size of the lower 48, three time zones, all marked on paper with pencils and manually counted.

The aim is 76 seats for government,requiring the Lib/Nat coalition to pick up 17 seats following the last redistribution. Minor parties considered good chances to win 3-4 seats.
Four possibilities are feasible.
Slim Labor win
Labour minority/coalition government
Lib/Nat minority/coalition government
Slim Lib/Nat win.

Game on!

2

With WA about to begin reporting in:

Difficult to see the Lib/Nat winning 76.
Lab could win 76 if everything went right.

Most likely result, perils of estimating pre-poll and absentee votes ignored, is a hung parliament with 4, maybe 5 independents. Three of these are conservative, and one, maybe and maybe a second are Greens.

3

Where is the 2nd Greens seat your seeing?

4

Andrew Wilkie, in Dennison Tasmania. He’s notionally independent but has stood as a Greens candidate previously.

5

Current prediction of seats won
ALP 69
LNP 69
Oth 5
in doubt 7.

The in doubt are obviously too close to call but it’s looking like it could finish 73/72. This is critical because if ALP have 73 they will have a claim to lead a minority/coalition government.
If LNP have 73, and they are clearly winning the national primary vote, then it will be a Lib minority government.

Politics is going to get a lot more fun for a while … unless clear leadership on a contentious matter is required.

6

One of the cute results.

Wyatt Roy has been called to win Longman in Queensland.
He hasn’t claimed victory.
At 20 he’s the youngest ever elected Federal member.
This is the first election where he has been eligible to vote. :slight_smile:

7

Thanks for that. This is certainly going to be interesting.

8

When I went to vote my local Labor member came up to shake my hand and offer me a how to vote sheet.

I smiled and said, “So you want my vote today, do you?”

He said, “Yes I do.”

So, still smiling I said, “Maybe you should have replied to some of the emails I sent you in the last 3 years while you where my representative.” He just stood there looking like I had slapped him in the face with a dead fish.

The people behind me saw the whole thing and it led to an animated discussion while we queued to vote. Basically it boiled down to what useless pieces of crap politicians are and how little they stand for.

9

This is why I assume the Greens have improved their position so much this election.

10

May well be true, but you can promise anything if you know you don’t have to deliver.

Peter Garrat’s previously unbesmirched green credentials copped it in the neck when he, as the responsible Minister, approved the dredging of Port Phillip Bay, the Welsey Vale paper mill, logging concessions and other development proposals.

It’s isn’t all jam and Jerusalem.

11

There’s also the first Aboriginal MHR (Ken Wyatt) and the first Muslim member of the Parliament (Ed Husic).

12

That is a thing of beauty.

My husband and I live in the seat of Melbourne and in the months before the election we were bombarded by mail from Labor and The Greens. The Greens appealed to traditional Labor voters who were dissatisfied with how the party was shifting right (but who couldn’t bear themselves to vote Liberal as a protest), and Labor focused on the lefty credentials of its candidate. It was a very interesting electorate to be in this election. It got my husband interested for the first time, because this year his vote actually counted.

13

I know Ken Wyatt’s seat (Hasluck) has been called, but i’m not convinced that 369 votes (Progressive Count after Preferences) is enough for this to be a sure thing.

14

You’re right – I just looked at the latest figures for Hasluck, and it could go either way. I was going on Tony Abbot claiming the seat on election night.

15

With neither side having prospect of have control of 76 seats and forming a majority, the question now becomes who get the right for first dibs at forming the minority government. This goes to the party with the most seats.
Who won the most votes in either first preference or two-party preferred terms is irrelevent.

The likely maximum both LAB & LNP could get to is 73, which both can do.

It might end up with of who finishes second in Dennison (LAB leading comfortably). If it’s the LIB then Green/independent preferences win it for LAB. If the independent finishes second then LIB preferences will hand the seat to Andrew Wilkie. That may determine whether it’s 72 LAB v 73 LNP, or 73 all.

Procedure from here, unless negotiations produce a clear coalition with control of a majority:

The Governor General, Quentin Bryce, at some point before the return of the electoral writs, due befor Oct 27th, will invite Julia Guillard, as caretaker prime minister, to form a government. Guillard’s coalition would need to win a vote of confidence on the floor of parliament. If she wins, we are away at the races.

If she loses that vote then the G-G would invite Tony Abbott to form a government, again subject to being able to command a majority.

If both were to fail, then the G-G would dissolve parliament and order a new election.

A human interest snippet is that one of the key factional bossses and prime movers for the replacement of Kevin Rudd with Julia Guillard was the Victorian MP Bill Shorten. His mother-in-law is Quentin Bryce, the G-G!

The Greens have now won 9 Senate seats and will control the balance of power there. But they will not take their seats sworn July next year. The composition of the Senate (currently LAB 32, LNP 37, 5 Greens and two independents) does not change for the next 11 months.

16

There’s something to be said for benign dictatorships.

17

They are certainly simpler and if you get a good one they work!

18

Just received the following link via email, which I think is an excellently observed piece of commentary (funny video at the end too).

Election 2010: Extra Time (or Think, Know, Prove)

19

This is my favourite election-related video.

Australia goes to the polls