As the Morrison government is a minority, both sides need to win seats to get their bums on the Treasury benches.
The economy is chugging along OK, the outlook is for a weakening and there is a bit of spare cash in the public til to splash around a bit of electoral pork masquerading as stimulus infrastructure spending. The youth vote going to the second federal election in their lives have never experienced a recession.
Border security, but less than previously and the pendulum is more towards ending mandatory detention. But is a boat of undocumented refugees gets to the mainland then it’s on again. Imigration
The influence of China is an interesting question.
Climate change might be a significant issue but those for who it’s a vote turner have already turned. It’s not going to win LAB any metropolitan seats. Might even cost LABs seats as the Greens pick off the more radical inner city seats.
Trust us, I’m a politician.
Wouldn’t say it’s a vote winner for LAB, but the opportunity to take a wire brush to the LIBs nether regions over the prurile, preschool level pettiness they have shown for two terms is something to savour. It’ll take LABs about six months to sink back to that same asinine level but que sera, sera.
I thought is was going to be a train wreck but the LIBs winning the NSW state election recently gives them a bit of oxygen.
Expect that VIC will be a ballot box slaughterhouse against the LIBS.
QLD the (junior coalition partner) NATs will cop it big time, because they are too much like mini LIB and their constituents. But in QLD, Australia’s Florida, their votes will go to the right wing populists. Our closet Nazis (One Nation) and conspiracy theorists were looking at a possible significant resurgence but they got seriously rumbled for a dalliance seeking NRA funding in exchange for weakening our gun laws (in the aftermath of Christchurch massacre by an Australian). Might just lock the local gun lobby out in the wilderness for a generation.
WA may prove a positive for the LIBS.
There aren’t sufficient marginal seats in SA, NT, TAS and ACT to sway the election.
Let’s have a clear cut result folks.
Bugger off this minority government shit.
A LIB minority with “support” from the populist right will be will be just an ugly continuation of the past decade.
A LAB minority with “support” from the populist left will be no better.
Nope. Although there is ranked choice voting, each electoral district returns just 1 member, so at that level 100% of the representation must always go to 1 party, and 0% to all others. This tends to give the two major parties a signficant boost over all other parties, and nearly always one or other of the major parties will win more than 50% of the seats in the lower house, usually with signficantly less than 50% of the popular vote.
The general election in August 2010 did not deliver a majority to any party, with Labor and the Coalition each securing 72 seats (out of 150). Prior to that, the last time it happened was in September 1940, when the Coalition won 36 seats (out of 74), and Labor 32. And I don’t think it had ever happened before that.
What happens much more often is that a government has a majority in the lower house, but not in the Senate, which is elected in multi-seat districts.
Interesting that the election was called today (Thursday) when traditionally it has always been on a SUNDAY.
Word on social media is that Scott Morrison and the Liberal party did that intentionally to avoid probing questions that were scheduled for tomorrow at the Senate Estimates hearings re the Adani coal-mining approvals given last week. Now the election has been called, the hearings are cancelled.
The Labor Party have introduced party rules to eliminate the ‘revolving door’ leadership issues, but to date, the Libs are still wracked with internal strife and power plays. It has done their credibility no favours at all.
John Howard was PM on 3rd December 2007.
If Shorten gets the keys to the Lodge on 18th May that will be 7 changes of PM in less than 12 years, about 20 months in office.
There were more changes in about the same period this time last century.
The average PM term is a lot shorter than you’d think.
There have been 30 PMs in 120 years and just the big four (Menzies, Howard, Hawke and Fraser) were in office for well over half the time since Federation.
It’s a feature. Concentrates the political mind wonderfully.
The problem comes from minority, hung or small majority government where (say for the LIBs) to increase their electoral popularity they need to move towards the centre, but to increase their popularity within the parliamentary caucus they need to move to the right. Mirror image for the LABs.
Give the PM as sound majority for two terms to implement their manifesto with the rough bits rubbed off by the Senate. Then if we aren’t happy with them we turf them out.
My View From The Left is that having a decent climate policy might help Labor more than you might think against the Greens, because there are plenty of climate-first voters who are actually not all that politically left and are finding the Greens getting too radical for them… and then, there’s been the Recent Unpleasantness within the party to contend with as well. I’m in the electorate of Na Na Na Na Coooper myself and I voted Green in the last four elections - but not this time.
For sheer soap opera politics, I’m going to be breaking out the popcorn for Warringah and Dickson (Abbott and Dutton)
Agree with the rest of your analysis, by and large, except that I happen to think that the Gillard minority government was pretty functional, relentless carping from the media notwithstanding.
There’s quite a long line of rednecks with the potential to successfully garrote.
Abbott, Dutton, Leyonhjelm, Anning, Bernardi, MacDonald, One Nation.
What are the odds on a job lot?
The problem for the LIBS is that if they retain office it will be because these creatures of the dark side of humanity retain their seats. So their moderate colleagues are going to need to be turfed out so as to pry the levers of power from their godbothering hands.
I happen to think the history books will be rather kind to the Gillard government, and the least significant thing was that she is female and has red hair.
I know the reason this thread is pretty short is probably mostly because there aren’t that many Australians at SDMB (compared with the number of Americans), but I think it’s also partly because this is a particularly boring election. I’m not anticipating any exciting ideas or great oratory.
Although I did enjoy Tanya Plibersek saying “I hear from some people that Peter Dutton is a horrible human being”. Hard to argue with that.
You’ll note Plibersek used the cheap “some people say” line. She doesn’t have the bottle to say “I think he’s a horrible human being”. She unloads on members of her own Labor Left faction worse than that. You should here her any topic regarding the ALP NSW Right faction.
Some people say Dutton is salt of the earth too. (probably a very select few but no matter). About 45,000 people will vote for him.
Plibersek needs to consult the Keating lexicon if she wants “exciting ideas or great oratory”