Automate the Census & Stat. Error

Is the Census the epitome of “don’t ask any question to which you do not already know the answer”???

a) Why do we still need the Census when the Government issues social security numbers to all in the US? Are they hoping to catch illegal aliens who wish to be counted?

b) Why do they bother about household income when the Government has such info attheir fingertips, too? (Are we just the compilers of such data for them?)

c) How does the Census Bureau account for error such as people counted who then die, babies born a little late and not counted, or people who move from one area to another?
And, if they really seek accuracy, why wait every ten years???

They claim this info helps Federal funds become dispersed to the appropriate causes (like over crowded schools), but waiting every ten years is really a case of too little, too late!

And, why not just automate the system by now?


“They’re coming to take me away ha-ha, ho-ho, hee-hee, to the funny farm where life is beautiful all the time… :)” - Napoleon IV

The census is performed because the Constitution requires it. It would be clearly unconstitutional to not perform one every ten years, sort of like saying the president could stay in office indefinitely.

The Census is just a count of the population; in theory, it is an accurate count of who lives where on April 1 of the Census year. Obviously, it’s not perfect, so people are missed. However, the constitution makes it clear the representation is determined by the Census and by nothing else, so it needs to be done as best it can be done.

Other questions are part of a confirmation (in the early days, the Census was the only way to get any income information, but things have changed). The census numbers, because they’re an actual count, are considered more accurate than the various estimates, which is why it is used by other programs as a basis for calculating how funds are paid.

The Census Bureau isn’t hoping to “catch” anyone. Illegal aliens are counted, but are not turned over to authorities or reported in any way. However, knowing the number of illegal aliens is important in planning; they aren’t going to vanish, and some may end up becoming legal some day. Further, Census data is kept sealed for a very long time; by the time anyone could look at it, most of the people involved are dead (I think they’ve released up to the 1920 Census).

There’s no doubt that the Census undercounts, especially in inner cities. But as far as determining representitives is concerned, it is the only legal way. There’s been some talk about sampling to mathematically reduce the error, but it seems quite likely that using sampling to determine representation would be unconstitutional. (Using it to determine funding probably isn’t; the Census has always been used because it was accurate enough and relatively nonpartisan, but there’s no requirement the actual census numbers be used – though it would be a major fight to get sampling accepted even here.)

Finally, the system *is[/is] automated. The computer card was developed around 1880, in part to perform the census (I think it was the 1870 Census that took over ten years to compile). Up until at least 1950 (and probably later) all census takers went door to door on April 1. The mail census was a major automation improvement.


“What we have here is failure to communicate.” – Strother Martin, anticipating the Internet.

www.sff.net/people/rothman

Social Security numbers don’t say anything about where you live. The main purpose of the census is to determine apportionment of Congressional representatives, for which this bit of information is vital.


Chaim Mattis Keller
ckeller@kozmo.com

“Sherlock Holmes once said that once you have eliminated the
impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be
the answer. I, however, do not like to eliminate the impossible.
The impossible often has a kind of integrity to it that the merely improbable lacks.”
– Douglas Adams’s Dirk Gently, Holistic Detective

::This is a test post. Please ignore it. If you see multiposts above, please ignore them, too. I’ll clean them up.::

Actually, Social Security numbers are based on the birthplace of the cardholder, but still, they couldn’t be used to accurately accumulate the information necessary for the census.

I personally have no problem with using random sampling to perform the damn thing. IIRC, the Constitution simply says that one is required once every ten years, I don’t think it specifically says what method would be used. Arguing over whether sampling is unconstitutional would be one mother of an “original intent” debate.

From the Constitution, Article I, Section 2:

The sentence in italics is mine, a historical note.

Since they must enumerate the people, they can’t simply sample the population and then make guesses, er, that is, draw statistical conclusions. :slight_smile:

A key reason to oppose statistical sampling is because it is much easier to distort computer estimations for political purposes. Anyone who’s taken a statistics class knows how easy it is to lie with statistics. Plus, assuming that people who don’t return their census form are just like the people who do isn’t logical. The Founding Fathers knew all of this, so they made sure the word “enumeration” was used in describing the census. An enumeration is an actual, physical counting of something.


Synonym: the word you use in place of a word you can’t spell.

I agree that the constitution forbids sampling for the census, but there’s no reason it can’t be used to determine funding and other things that aren’t mentioned in the constitution. Represenation would have to be determined by an enumeration, but aid need not be.

But you’re right that it would be hard to come up with a formula that all policians could accept. Any numbers that favor their party would be accurate; any that favor the other would be disgracfully wrong. :slight_smile:


“What we have here is failure to communicate.” – Strother Martin, anticipating the Internet.

www.sff.net/people/rothman