There is typically some bend in the kick, but nothing that would trouble a pro goalkeeper. A knuckle ball effect would be more effective.
Corollary to the OP: What if the pro goalkeeper didn’t know that the kicker was an amateur? Then wouldn’t he have to guess like he does with most PK’s? If so, wouldn’t that greatly increase the odds?
There is a vast difference between an average American, and someone with some soccer experience. I have played a decent amount of soccer, in high school, and with friends as an adult.
I think I could score 50% of the time on the best goalie in the world. My shots would not have pro speed, they might have 80% pro speed, but it would still be fast enough that the goalie has to guess beforehand.
Average American is so hard to guess. What % of people play some soccer? 95% of women probably are going to have zero chance. (not to sound sexist, but they just don’t work on the skills needed nearly as commonly as men)
What’s the chance this “average” American has soccer experience?
For those without, I’d say almost no chance. The shot has a lot less speed, and it would likely be incredibly obvious which way the shot is going from the shooter’s footwork. There’s also going to be a lot less accuracy from the shooter, as well - if they try to shoot just inside the edge of the goal there’s a good chance they’ll miss horribly.
Now, someone who has played a lot of soccer will not have the same accuracy trouble, have much better speed, and probably won’t be as obvious in their direction, so they’d have a better shot.
There was a video recently of a bottom-rung NBA player (someone who has spent some time on practice squads, never really played in a game) playing pick-up basketball against the local street all-stars and absolutely dominating them. The gaps in skill and ability widen considerably as you get closer and closer to the top.
This video* is interesting… it shows the difference between the positioning of amateur and professional goalkeepers as the ball is struck on a penalty kick.
It is not precisely what we’re talking about here because it shows the difference between pro and amateur keepers–not shooters. Still it illustrates how a professional goalkeeper is able to place himself in a position that is advantageous for stopping a penalty kick–even against a professional taking the kick. So imagine how much of a jump they’d get on someone with no experience playing soccer.
*YouTube, 2:19 length. The amateur and pro keepers are shown reacting to shots at the same time, side-by-side in a split-screen which IMO, makes it a bit harder to make a comparison, but it’s still instructional.
ETA: Also, it appears to only show penalties that the goalkeeper guessed correctly on, so that’s a little unfair perhaps.
Yep there is a vast difference between having played and not having played.
However I think you’re not being realistic about your own ability to score penalties against pro-players as high school soccer is about a million miles from the top rung of professionals
Manuel Neuer (probably most people’s pick for the best GK in the World right now) has an approximately 40% save rate for in-game penalties (I can’t find any data for shoot-outs) (and that is mostly against players who play in the Bundesliga or for Champions League teams. I would say a good high school striker would probably score something like 20% against Neuer from the spot
That rate of success is based almost entirely on the pro player being able to kick the ball faster than any human being can react. The keeper has to guess where the ball is going. This would not happen AT ALL against a random schlub, the keeper would be able to see exactly where the ball was going and react accordingly.
No, you are overestimating your ability and way, way underestimating the athleticism of the worlds best keepers.
I’ve played to a decent standard and been involved at a level where I’ve come into contact with semi-pro keepers. You have to be very, very accurate and powerful to beat them consistently under* any* circumstances, let alone one-on-one or penalties.
That 20% drop in speed that may appear insignificant to you is a massive difference to a pro keeper. Imagine baseball pitching or cricket bowling and having your average delivery 15 mph slower and less accurate than the pro standard. You are going to get smashed.
Sure, the one you hit sweetly at a good speed into the top corner is going to beat anyone, the one you dink down the middle or when sending them the wrong way? again, you’ll score with some of them as well. But half the time against a Neuer or De Gea? nope. Dream on Bullwinkle.
No, it isn’t. To draw an analogy where I also have recent personal experience, the world long jump record is currently about 9m, or 30ft. I confidently stated I could clear 3m (10ft), a third of the distance. I am a reasonably athletic 30 year-old male. Now, granted my attempt was on a beach and not in athletic gear, but I barely cleared 2m. A friend of mine (considerably more athletic) just about managed 3m. Even with the proper equipment and a little training I doubt either of us could approach 4.5m, half the world record. The gulf between the bottom and top rungs in any sport is extraordinarily wide.
It is fairly easy (with practice and technique) to “curve” (more commonly called “bend” or “curl”) a modern football. This can help to keep it away from the goalkeeper (though you also need to be very accurate). But the keeper will see which way it is going to curve from the moment the ball is kicked, there is no real way to deceive them. Unless you’re playing with a plastic beach ball, in which case you can get it to curl in quite amusing and unpredictable ways, albeit (almost by definition) without much control. The average Joe would likely stand a better chance of scoring using one of these balls.
The pro goalkeeper will notice they’re up against an amateur just from the way the place the ball and take a run-up. But ignoring this, yes that would increase the average Joe’s chances because the keeper would then not be employing optimal strategy, like a grandmaster at chess handicapping themselves by deliberately losing their queen (and even then they’d stand a decent chance of beating a rookie player).
Are you sure about that, because I think I could fake that part pretty well?
My guess would be: less than 1%.
I play soccer at a fairly basic level. In season we have one practice and one match per week.
I’d give myself about 2%.
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As has been said, they wouldn’t need to guess, the pace of the kick of a non-player would easily give them time to react, as I said 12 yards is furtehr than it looks on TV!
Just to give you an example I’ve played a lot with and against a keeper (RIP Andy -unfortunately he killed himself earlier this year), who was never a pro, who had played youth with an English Championship team and had played and coached at semi-pro level. One-v-one against a park player in a pick-up game I would expect to score most of the time and I had a few clever finishes up my sleeve. Against this player I knew unless I got off a shot with very good placement and power I just wasn’t going to score even from a few yards as the reaction and technique were so good.
The point I’d make is the best goalkeeper in world is very, very good and not prone to mistakes, for a non-player to score from 12 yards against such a player from a dead ball requires an incredible fluke of pace and placement.
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I am not disagreeing that a top keeper would save most of them. I just don’t think the ratio is 99:1. 12 yards is not that far away. The reduction is ball speed is not necessarily an advantage, slower shots are far too common in professional play, and often foo the keeper, just ask Joe Hart.
If a kicker can get it on target, I still think that s/he would have a chance of getting a few past in a set of 10. This is one of the few (perhaps only) situation in soccer where a layman has a chance, no matter how small.
The answer is probably somewhere in the region of 5%. 1% does sound a bit low. At least 1-2% will unintentionally hit the inside of the post/crossbar and probably go in.
Is this true, though? This sitesays pro penalty kicks reach speeds up to 125mph, which sounds absurd to me, but ok I’ll take their word. That means the ball travels to the goal in under 0.2 seconds. Is it reasonable to say a non-soccer athlete could kick the ball half as hard? So it still gets to the goal in under half a second. Is that enough time for the goalie to wait and react?
Personally, I have played zero organized soccer but I do have a little experience as a football placekicker. If given 10 shots against a pro keeper, I feel good about my chances of slipping at least one past him.
I’m going to guess 1-2% if only to factor in beginner’s luck.
Let’s not forget that the Robokeeper, a device that foiled everyone up to and including Lionel Messi, was beaten on the first kick by a fat comedian.
From the way the fat comedian kicks, it’s clear he has experience with soccer. He kicks the ball with proper form using his whole body. I doubt someone with no soccer experience would kick the ball like that.
If you don’t play soccer, likely you have virtually no experience at kicking a ball. I suspect a novice would not have proper form like you see in that video. Likely, they would try to kick the ball with just their leg or lower leg only and would not have much force at all. Probably the only thing working in their favor is that the direction of the ball would be totally random and the keeper wouldn’t necessarily be able to predict the direction from the kicker’s stance. However, I’m not sure that would make a difference because the ball would be moving so slowly relative to the pro players that the keeper could just react to the ball in motion.
No, you may be right. I was basing this on someone who has barely even watched any soccer and so isn’t aware of how to make it look professional.
This isn’t really a super relevant comparison, though. The issue here is more than just the difference in skill between a pro and a rank amateur, which, obviously, is huge. It’s the structure of the task we’re creating.
Soccer penalty shots are, by design, incredibly hard to stop. Stopping a shot from twelve metres out is something pro keepers simply can’t be expected to do most of the time. Saying a rank amateur could score 5-10% of the time is no insult to the keeper or to the pros who score 75% of the time. It’s just that the net is huge and the guy making the kick is ridiculously close. I’m 43 years old and I’d bet a lot of money if you offered me 20 shots that I’d score at least once.
How often do strikers score when they get a clean shot from, say, 20 metres away? Let’s say it’s 30%. At THAT distance I wouldn’t be a nickel I could score once in a hundred shots; the keeper always has a fair chance.
To make a comparison to another sport, if you put a reasonably athletic young man who knew how to throw but wasn’t a pro baseball player on the mound and asked him to strike out major league hitters, he would have no chance at all of doing it, and could probably throw 50, 60 pitches without a batter actually swinging and missing. But baseball is structure in this regard to be fair. Suppose we made it UNFAIR, the way a penalty kick is, and placed our young nobody just 25 feet from home plate, instead of 60 feet 6 inches. He’d throw a lot of strikes and would have an excellent chance of striking out a real major leaguer. If it was someone who played a little baseball or softball he could pitch a shutout.
I think many people are underestimating how natural a motion kicking is. Are there really that many Americans who never played soccer, kickball, or screwed around kicking a football? Plus little boys kick rocks and trash naturally, just because it’s there.
Of course they’re not going to have near the power or accuracy of a practiced pro, but it’s not some secret and mystical art to kick a ball somewhere in a roughly 30 degree arc.