Here is a diagram of a position that occurred in a game I just lost. (I am white, playing vs an AI.)
Brief description: I have a pip count advantage of 50 vs 100 or so. I have two of his checkers still in my home board while I am beginning to bear off my own checkers. As well as the two checkers he has in my home board, he also has two additional checkers not yet in his own home board. This, I thought, was a sure win for me.
I rolled 5 and 3 (see diagram) and I bore off* one of my checkers on 20, and moved the other from 20 to 23.
He rolled 4 and 2, and moved 13/9 and 3/1
I now rolled 5 and 1. Only one move was possible: 19/20 and then bear off the 20.
This left a blot on 19, and of course he hits it on his next move. I didn’t think this was cause for panic, though–he now had three blots out on the board, and I still had a massive pip advantage.
But for the next I don’t know how many turns, I only rolled 1s, 2s, 3s and 4s, meaning I could never get my guy off the bar, and giving him all the time in the world to completely turn the game around. I lost.
My question is, did I make a mistake? WasI wrong in my evaluation of the diagrammed position as a nearly sure win for me? Or was I right about that, but did the wrong thing with the roll of 5 and 3? Any other move would have left a blot behind, so it seemed best to do what I did. But is this wrong?
Did I just get hit by some really bad luck, or did I make a bad move?
*Is that how you conjugate “bear off” in the past tense?