What you say is true. But I’d like to think that there’s been some progress in the last thirty years. The sort of racism that used to be mainstream is now out on the fringe. The mainstream racism that now exists is hidden and defensive - nobody wants to be perceived as being racist.
Quite true. But the ballot is secret.
I think for every white person who votes against Obama or Keyes or Rice because they’re black, there’ll be several white voters who vote for them in order to prove to themselves that they aren’t racist. A slick campaign would even push the idea that the only reason to vote against this candidate is racism.
Maybe, maybe not. At least it is encouraging that we have reached the point where there are enough serious high-profile black politicians for this discussion to be relevant. It never was, before, WRT presidential politics. (Jesse Jackson, I’m sure, knew he was never going to get on the ticket.)
And if they did so, I would probably be tempted to vote against them out of spite. The fact that I don’t watch “Gumble 2 Gumble” does not, in fact, make me a racist!
-Joe
I don’t see how that helps all that much, really, as long as the candidate looks like he can be trusted to pick people who can fill his shortages of experience - and keep them under control, and be the one actually making the decisions.
Right, the former mayor would need to have someone with him who knew about the world outside NYC. Yes, I know that’s not your point.
What gives you the impression it’s a lack? Her experience didn’t start with her election to the Senate.
Lieberman.
For Guiliani? Wrong party, and even if Lieberman would agree to run as a Republican, Guiliani is already seen as strong on terrorism/Iraq, Lieberman, being more liberal than Guliani, doesn’t help him with social or economic conservatives, and even without Lieberman, Guliani is the only Republican who’s got a shot at winning Connecticut anyway.
I don’t know. I guess I’ve never seen any data on it, but I feel like in an election where foreign policy issues are among the top concerns it could sway a few hundred thousand votes.
Well, it’s sort of my point. I was suggesting that neither candidate has significant experience, therefore a strong FP VP could be useful.
Meh. I’ll give her first lady experience at a discounted rate. But it’s still less foreign policy experience than McCain, Richardson, Clark, etc.
Doubt it. Gore didn’t carry Tennessee when he ran for president.
Liddy Dole? I’d much rather have had her nominated than W Bush in 2000.
There might be a governor somewhere who’s not notoriously corrupt. Or someone could tap Brownback as the smarter, savvier pro-lifer (compared to the provincial Huckabee).
Oops, I should have said a Mr./Mrs./Ms. Clean that can draw the support of big money without looking like she/he has been bought. I don’t think Brownback or Huckabee can draw the monetary support Rudy’s going to need to overcome the coming shitstorm about his colorful past.
You’re probably right about SC, but I wouldn’t be too sure on NC. They have a popular Democratic governor. Both of their GOP Senators only got in after beating the painfully mediocre Erksine Bowles, and not by huge margins. It was briefly considered a Presidential swing state in 2004. Given the declining fortunes of the GOP since 2004, I think it will be in play next year.
That’s not to say it’s of any strategic importance. I’m also not sure if putting John Edwards on the ticket would really draw them in.
It’s academic anyway, since there’s no way Edwards would do the VP thing again.
Hillary’s obvious choice for a vice presidential candidate is Jim Webb. He’s male, has great credibility on national security issues, could help to carry Virginia, and has already proved that he’s a tough campaigner who can win in a tight race.
Lieberman is to the right of many Republicans in the Senate, if not most of them, on foreign policy, but I’ll grant you that he is somewhat liberal in other areas. Besides, it wouldn’t be much of a switch: from DINO to RINO.
What, wrt to her academic credentials, makes her brilliant? What are you using to assess her general intelligence? She seems to have done well at Stanford, but that doesn’t necessarily make her brilliant, especially considering her actions as part of the Bush administration.
I doubt it. Otherwise the whole “McCain has a black kid” thing wouldn’t have worked as well as it did.
That was an awfully hard-won Senate seat to give up after two years, though. It shouldn’t affect the balance, since the Dems will almost certainly expand their lead in 2008, but I can see why he might feel obligated to hang on for a while.
I specified a slick campaign. In all fairness to John McCain, he probably hadn’t anticipated that race would be a factor in his campaign and was caught unprepared. Obama or some other black candidate obviously is not going to make that mistake. A slick manager would get ahead on the racial issue and spin it in his favor.
Any reason why you think that would be the case? The old race trick, in one form or another, has worked for decades now. It has ruined the campaigns of well-liked, prominent White people using only the implied link to certain Black people. What chance does a guy like Obama, who is already walking a fine line, have to avoid such attacks? Why do you think Obama’s people are slicker than all the others? How exactly do they spin the fact that he is Black without alienating someone in the process, or lowering himself by responding to such ads? It’s not as if anyone is stupid enough to put out a straightforward, outright racist attack. They don’t say, " don’t vote for the negro". They just say imply that he’s a little too close to Louis Farrakan or Al Sharpton, that he likes rap music, or that he’s 8th cousins with Angela Davis. They darken his photos, and show him talking to large, excited Black crowds. They ask him to take a firm stand on racial wedge issues like affirmative action, reparations, drug laws, etc. They show pictures of him with young, attractive White women. They do something like that in certain places that are receptive to that sort of message, and they do it over and over again before Obama has time to respond. They just keep throwing shit on the wall until some of it sticks. All the while his opponent denies any knowledge of the attacks, reluctantly condemns the ads, all the while allowing his underground smear campaign to continue unabated on right-wing radio, and news entertainment shows. Obama has to repeatedly caution people to not fall for their tricks, and that his race has nothing to do with the race, which ironically, only makes people focus on his race even more, and makes him look like a victim. Sure, the tricks don’t work on everyone, but if they didn’t work, people would not continue to utilize them for their own benefit.
Maybe I have too high an opinion of mankind but I believe most people are not racist. Or at least are more non-racist than racist. I’m sure all the tricks you’ve mentioned would be used but as you noted they would have to be used subtly. If racism outweighed non-racism there would be no need for subtleness - they could just say “Don’t vote for Obama because he’s black” and not worry about any backlash. But the fact that that backlash is possible shows that non-racism is there. And non-racism can be harnessed as much as racism can and with the same subtleness that racism can. And if, as I believe, non-racism is more prevalent than racism than the non-racist whispering campaign will be more effective than the racist whispering campaign.
If Hillary gets the Dems’ nod, which looks increasingly likely, she’ll probably pick Obama. No way would Edwards agree to be someone else’s running mate just four years later; I just don’t see it.
If Rudy gets the GOP nod, which also seems very likely, I’m guessing he’ll pick either Huckabee or Brownback. He’s going to need to get a true believer on board to fire up the Hard Right next fall.