So this storysays that the Astros fail to come to an agreement with their #1 draft pick. Apparently there was some dispute about his money based on the results of a physical.
The only league I know enough about to compare the situation would be the NBA, which I think has never not drafted a #1 pick. And as far as I know, the rookie contracts are pretty much set in stone, you can’t really negotiate to get a better one, at least I’ve never heard of that happening. I know MLB’s union is a lot stronger and their contracts can be for much longer and they have no cap. Does that apply to drafted rookies too? Could a guy fresh off college be drafted to a 10 year, $100 million deal?
MLB draft rules are complicated. Really complicated. Someone will surely be able to fill in the gaps here, and correct anything major, but the general gist of it is that teams are given specific amounts of money they can use to sign their draft picks (not given actual money, but a budget they have to abide by with their own money). Each pick they have adds a specific amount to that budget - called “slot amount”. For instance, the Astros were allowed $7.9 million for the first pick. Picks in later rounds are much much lower on the slot amount.
So let’s say the Astros think that unless they offer their top prospect a $15 million signing bonus, he’s going to walk - maybe he’ll go play in an independent league for a year and re-enter the draft. They can use $15 million from their slot pool on that one guy - and have to budget their money later.
This complicates the draft a little, because the Astros now have to draft guys that will sign for “less than slot” later in the draft. Maybe their second round pick is someone who was actually projected to be picked in the 10th round. They call him up, say “hey - we really want you to be an Astro, and are excited to have you onboard. But we can’t pay you 2nd round slot money - you’re a 10th rounder. But we’d like you to give us an oral commitment to sign for 8th round slot money if we pick you in the 2nd round.”
It actually used to be a lot worse, because without the slot pools, players would refuse to sign with a number of specific teams, who would then avoid them in the draft. So the #1 prospect wouldn’t actually be picked until like 6th or 7th, because the first 5-6 teams were scared they’d waste a pick on a guy that would never sign with them.
Also note that there’s very little consequence to the Astros for failing to sign their pick. Though they lose the opportunity to acquire the 1st overall pick this year, they’re compensated with a pick next year one spot below that of the player who failed to sign, so next year they’ll have the 2nd overall pick (in addition to their regular 1st Round selection). This really weakens Aiken’s bargaining position.
I’m surprised you don’t see teams gaming this system. If a team at the top of the draft thinks it’s an unusually weak crop of prospects, they could likely do better by lowballing their 1st Round draftee and just pushing back their pick by a year. And if the guy signs the lowball offer, well, hey, free discount. (To qualify for the compensatory pick next year a team has to offer the player, IIRC, at least 40% of the slot value. This is why the Astros initially lowered their offer to the oddly specific amount of $3.16M.)