So now that we’re officially at the All Star Break, who does everyone now pick to make the 8 playoff spots? Who will we see in the Series? And if your opinion has changed from the beginning of the season, why?
Oh, and Sir T-Cups: I do nothing in these threads but prattle on about the Dodgers and ask (unintentionally) inane questions, and no one has threatened to kick me out yet. So I’d say you’re on pretty solid ground. 
Just out of interest, where did you find that stat? Am i missing something on BP’s website, or did it come from elsewhere?
Yes. Basically, Ricciardi was asked by a radio talk show caller whether he had interest in Adam Dunn, who was being shopped last season, and he responded that no, he wasn’t interested, because Adam Dunn doesn’t like baseball.
I’m not touching the clutch argument. I’ve decided that from now on I’m going to read these threads telling myself that Elvis is actually Ken Tremendous doing experimental comedy.
Fangraphs is the place to go for WPA and Clutch Ratings. Good stuff.
If the Sonya Sotomayor hearings were being held by the 1977 Kansas City Royals:
http://www.mcsweeneys.net/2009/7/13wexler.html
Yay, a relevant(ish) Royals story!
Excellent. Thanks Jimmy.
And I’m here till I get kicked out for uninformed Cards homerism, so I’ll predict that the Cards make it to the post season. At the beginning of the season, I think I predicted that they’d toy with me for awhile before fading and missing the post season. Now I think they have a chance to stick to the NL Central lead. The improved bullpen, a healthy Chris Carpenter, Ludwick returning to 2008 form, the (eventual) contributions of DeRosa, and…uh… someting I’m forgetting…oh yeah, the freakish production of Pujols all add up to the Cards appearing in the playoffs. The Cubs, widely predicted to take the Central, look adrift. I don’t have a cite, but I’ve read that the Cards’ second half is an easier schedule than their first half. And, after saying he wasn’t really looking to add anybody, Mozeliak now looks like he’s interested in adding even more help after the DeRosa signing. So, I like their chances of hanging on to the lead.
I understand that batting average is a historically over-rated statistic, and there are much better ways to measure value today, but “doesn’t mean squat”?
As sneaky as that stat can be, if you have a guy batting .360 and another guy batting .240 I’d be willing to wager the .360 guy is having a better year, no matter what his slugging % is (I’m purposefully leaving out OBP because I can’t see how the .240 guy could be better there.)
BA can’t always be useful by itself, but I don’t buy that it doesn’t mean squat.
Yankees (WC)
Red Sox
White Sox
Rangers
Phillies
Cardinals
Dodgers
Giants (WC)
WS: Red Sox - Dodgers
My opinion has changed a lot. I didn’t see the Dodgers at all; nor the Giants. I thought the Rays would be better (and they may still be.) I didn’t see all the Angels’ injuries.
So how much is Pedro going to help the Phillies for the remainder of the season, do you think?
So we have someone batting .360 and one batting .240. You don’t think there are any other stats that might be useful, or able to demonstrate one player’s superiority over another? If all his other counting stats are the same, then AVG is useless in this situation over OBP.
What I’m saying is that looking at those two players by BA only, you could almost certainly surmise that the guy hitting .360 is having the better year. When you do get to see the rest of the stats, I’d bet the .360 guy is *still *having the better year.
All I mean is that when it comes to large discrepancies, BA still has value. If your deciding between a .280 guy and a .310 guy, I wouldn’t trust it by itself to gauge who’s having the better year.
Well, it means very little if dramatic differences don’t reflect a dramatic difference in value. Now, your example is so extreme that it does hold - no truly poor hitter can hit .360. But, to give an example from this season, which player would you rather have: the 1B hitting .250 or the OF hitting .328? What if you knew the 1B had a OBP of .387 and SLG of .523 (Adrian Gonzalez) while the OF was a .387/.417 (Juan Pierre - in a season that is surprisingly useful from him)? These are two dramatically different players, and not in the direction you would assume from the BA.
This also almost matches your “impossible” situation of a .360 hitter having a worse OBP than a .240 one - here a .330 and .250 hitter have exactly the same OBP.
I guess the point is that at some point a metric is so poor in addressing player value that it might as well be called “useless” and BA is pretty close to that point, IMO.
I understand your point and Munch’s basic point, but I think it’s too fashionable these days to discount BA completely. You give me 9 guys hitting .360 and you take 9 guys hitting .240 and let’s play a 7-game series. I’d be pretty confident. (Yeah, I know, the pitchers matter, but you get what I’m saying.)
Agreed. What seems odd to me, and rubs me the wrong way, is how OBP is so much more intuitive and reports basically the same (incomplete) information as BA. I see no reason to prefer BA to OBP, to be honest - all it does is discard things that shouldn’t be discarded (walks in particular). OBP is also much easier to calculate.
If you offered me my choice of two of the three “primary” hitting stats (BA/OBP/SLG) to use to pick a player I would chose OBP and SLG every time. And if I can only have one then I’ll take OBP.
As for the post season, I’ll go with:
Red Sox
Yankees
Tigers
Angels
Phillies
Cards
Dodgers
Rockies
WS: Red Sox/Dodgers
If Halladay moves this could change dramatically…
Of course, I never claimed otherwise. But take those 18 players, and OBP will give you a better picture of how good they are, rendering batting average obsolete.
You also come in here to tease D-backs fans! 
I would say the NL Central is truly up for grabs between the Brewers and Cards. I don’t have much faith in the Cubs to make a storm, but anything can happen. A good thing about my 'Crew is that we have a fairly easy second half (LOOOOVE facing the Natinals for the second series) so hopefully that helps.
If the Brewers’s starting pitching holds we win. If not…Have fun St. Louis.
And once again the superior league wins the All-Star game.
Red Sox
Yankees (WC)
Tigers
Angels
Phillies
Cubs
Dodgers
Giants (WC)
Red Sox/Yankees and Dodgers/Giants
Red Sox/Giants (yes, I am a Giants fan)
The only changes I have made are the wild cards. I had the Rays and Cards early on, and both could still easily make it.