I predict…
The Air Force will be considering retiring the B-52 again.
AK-47s and RPG-7s will still be everywhere.
The Pentagon will have spent billions on a weapon system that turns out to be pretty mediocre in practice. Later versions will be much improved, but they’ll still have the spectre of failure hanging over them.
Lemur: Well, that depends on how you define “human”. If you could modify them enough, you could simply label them as sub-humans and thus mass-produce them as slaves. And the fact that we’re a democracy means nothing. A democracy can just as easily enslave anybody (or any “thing”, in this case) they see fit.
As for somebody who couldn’t think for themselves… I mean, they lack sufficient intelligence to be truly dangerous. They’d be more like “sub-humans of burden”. Really strong, really good dexterity, shit for brains. Bit smarter than say, a cockroach, but not by much.
As for binding, I doubt it can be perfect… but breed for loyalty, heightened senses (smell, vision, etc. that would allow them to be good at identifying the Dictator) and submissiveness towards their detected master. Hell, dogs already do that. Maybe we just need Super Werehounds. Is that at all likely? I haven’t a clue.
As for volunteers: Right. They’d just be Really Cool Soldiers.
So what happens when the Dictator dies or is assassinated? How do you get them to recognize the authority of the new dictator? Will they go into revolt? Will they all have to be exterminated? What do you use to kill super-soldiers?
I read a scientific american article, something close to a year ago, about how gene therapy will be the next controversial subject in professional sports. Steroids will have gone the way of the dodo as new biologically altering drugs become available. This immediately made me think of the military.
By 2020 I think we will see the militaries around the world giving their soldiers gene therapies in basic training. I would say by 2060 these super soldiers will be much more resiliant, physically and psychologically. They will be stronger on the order of the top athletes or beyond and will have incredible endurance. They will have reflexes only dreamed about and the best intellect money can buy, as well as the top implants and upgrades cybernetics of that era can offer. GPS tracking systems, internal clocks, memory caches, optical upgrades, internal com links, and even a few other extra goodies.
By 2080 the general population will have joined them, or will have destroyed them.
Disposable remote drones the size of sparrows will allow soldiers on the ground to “see around corners” and will drastically improve the U.S. military’s already considerable ability to scout hostile environments in real time. 3-4 of these drones will follow/precede a convoy, flying for hours with remote sensors that can detect humans, explosives etc. Perhaps every soldier, or every squad, will have his own.
Slightly bigger drones, maybe with a 3 foot wingspan will have the same capability and will carry weapons — maybe grenade-level explosives or a few rounds of actual ammo. These fast moving weapon systems will not be autonomous, but will require a human to make go/no go decisions on firing
Some trends that I feel comfortable saying (tho I have no real basis) sensors will be able to detect many explosives from a distance, armor will be lighter and much better than today, the U.S. will have an orbital bomber that can take off from, say Wright-Patterson in Ohio deliver ordinance in Asia or the ME and be home for a late dinner 13 hours after takeoff. These bombers will be expensive and valuable – like the B-2 Stealth bomber today it will be used judiciously in certain situations.
archmichael: If the Dictator dies, naturally he’ll take the rest of the world with him. You don’t actually assume he’ll be nice enough to let himself be killed without consequence?
That’s one ruthless dictator, but do they come any other way? 
Thank you all for the interesting discussion.
What form of energy do you think these weapons will project? Microwave? Visible light? Infrared? Particle beams? What advantages would they have over, say, missile launchers? What kind of power source is needed?
Under certain circumstances, a soldier or unit could be bombarded with dozens of contradictory orders and false information and, if they became aware of the subversion, would have to figure out what to believe. Order could turn into chaos very, very quickly.
The problem with powered armor as I understand it is finding a power source with enough oomph to power all of those devices over a long period of time and yet small enough to be transportable. It would suck to have the Mobile Infantry dragging big extension cords everywhere they went!
Point taken. Just look at what “futurists” were predicting in 1905 and what actually came about in 1960.
Unfortunately, your scenario may be the most plausable one.
Almost certainly. In fact, I think designer war-drugs will be more common than genentically enhanced supermen.
Interesting concept. I am not familiar with gene therapies of this sort. I was under the impression that once one’s body was pretty much developed one was stuck with the genes one has, and that the primary promise of gene therapy was either for in utero modification or the design of drugs tailored for each individual. Does anyone have any links on how the sort of techniques Epimetheus describes works?
We’re getting pretty close to this now, are we not?
Devices that disable economies, electronics equiptment or military machines w/o hurting soldiers and civilians will probably play a huge role in future warfare. Historically the purpose of war has always been to eliminate the enemies ability to resist and harm you back, but in the technological age the enemy is impotent without technology or machines.
I do not think the days of carpet bombing/slash/burn, then occupy military tactics are really workable anymore. Bombing the hell out of a country, destroying its infrastructure, then moving in is not a good idea since the invading country has to help rebuild the country, plus pissing off the locals leads to a long grudge. Plus civilian casualties are a concern for people in the developed world and for large parts of the developing world, and I assume will become a bigger concern for the developing world as time passes.
So it won’t be devices that destroy people, it’ll be devices that destroy military infrastructure without hurting people or infrastructure (too excessively at least) that will pick up. I do not know for sure what kinds though, its too early to predict 2060.
I believe the only gene therapy we currently have for adults is localized stuff like mentioned here: http://www.news-medical.net/?id=5502. It is probably not quite safe to say it is only a small step to more developed gene therapies, but perhaps a medium step. Retro-viruses can be used to insert genes in adult cells, along with another method I cannot remember off the top of my head. I have seen quite a few articles about gene therapy used, and they are becoming more and more frequent.
It will be only a relatively short time before a humans genetic structure can be altered even as an adult. Unless of course political pressures suppress it, but I seriously doubt that will happen. I think it is likely the military will use this technology before it becomes private, but with capitalism, it is probably even more likely that it will be used way before the military gets its hands on that technology. From the articles I have read, it seems to me that it is already being used.
http://www.amrc.org.uk/index.asp?id=2878
Currently I wouldn’t say there is a whole lot to the practical uses. The technology is less than a decade old after all. There have been bumps, and science fiction writers have probably made it a bigger deal than it is. I don’t see us turning ourselves into plants or anything extreme like that, but I certainly think it isn’t unreasonable to assume that in 50 years it will be possible to alter a grown mans DNA to allow their full potential to become possible. That isn’t to say that one shot will turn a person into a superhero, the training will still be necessary, I think the gene therapy will only increase the upper limit of human potential.
Hell, I could be wrong and genetic altercation will be much more advanced by then, but I like to be practical.
The most likely candidate for a DEW on naval vessels is a railgun. There is ongoing research and interest in fielding an operational railgun weapon system by DARPA right now. In fact, the next generation DDX destroyer is mandated to be an all electric boat… one of the benefits is a surplus of electrical power to use for weaponry. In related research the next aircraft carriers will have electro-magnetic catapults to replace the bulky, dangerous and expensive to maintain steam cats we have now. The benefits to using a railgun include a greatly expanded magazine capacity, increased safety by using a non explosive pure kinetic energy round, low per use costs and higher survivability than conventional missile weapons. Now, in the air the JSF STOVL variant might be fitted with a 100 kilowatt solid state laser weapon if the research pans out. This could be done in 10 or 15 years provided things progress steadily. And I agree with you about the potential downsides of battlefield ‘situational awareness’, if the system gets hacked it could be a deadly weapon in the hands of the enemy.
Certainly. On all my post it really is a matter of degree. We already have small unmanned drones in the field that can loiter (read circle) over an area for hours. The U.S. is currently field testing a drone about the size of a piece of paper that has a single video camera that streams back to a field laptop.
By 2060, besides sensors and being smaller, faster, better: I think these will be able to fly and hover like a hummingbird. The armed drone will also be much smaller and more maneuverable than todays unmanned Predator armed with a Hellfire missile – perhaps hovering outside a window, streaming back in real time to a remote operator who makes the decision to fire.
I think what alot of us agree on is this: Military Technology 54 years from now will seee a bigger jump than 1951-2005 did.
IMO I think that miniaturization, advances in electronics, aviation, communications, and computing make it very hard to guess what the state of the art pushing the envelope weapons will be …
Sorry for the delay in response, the real world really cuts into my SDMB time. grin
The interesting thing about the power source problem is that, once you start talking about muscle augmentation, the definition of “transportable” becomes much more fluid. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some sort of micro-reactor or high yield battery in use, but my best guess at this point would be a fuel cell of some sort. After all, if the person inside the armor already needs water (or even better some sort of water/carb mix like an energy drink or even beer), making a power source that can make use of it as well is a good idea, one less thing to carry around and all. I may be overstating the case for powered armor, but I always did like the idea of it. Too much Heinlein and Warhammer 40K, I guess.