I’ve found the opposite to be true. The few times someone tried to attack me they got slammed to the ground better than I could have done in a tournament. It was all reflex and no thought. I would say adrenaline had a great deal to do with it.
It’s like the reflex to duck if something is thrown at you. It’s almost impossible NOT to do it.
Similarly, I was told, “with luck and concentration, you will be able to die gracefully”
I think you’ve mentioned two options and assumed all lead to the same results. So let us break them down.
1. Being armed increased the chance you’ll be harmed.
My read? Possible, even probable especially if you include suicide (which IMHO, should be legal and with little to no stigma attached to it, but that’s a whole other thread), the possibilities of accidental discharge and unauthorized users.
2. Learning self-defense increases the chance you’ll be harmed.
This one is tricky, because we’ve already had to try to define several different sorts of Self-Defense in a 20 post thread. Four general categories SO FAR, including Defensive Awareness, Self Defense Short Form (1-2 lessons or lectures), Martial Arts (presumably a few months to a few years), and Firearm/CCW training classes.
So now we’ve ballooned out to at least 6 different possible scenarios, all with potentially different answers. That’s why I tried to at least define the categories we have so we can discuss this in more detail. @Aspidistra did a very good job upthread of indicating, for women at least, that the first category, and possibly the second are beneficial to women at a minimum. I know people who seem to think not resisting an being raped is less ‘harm’ than fighting back, but I doubt anyone here is in that faction.
Martial Arts meanwhile, we’ve had a couple of perspectives - you know enough that you don’t know and trained reflexes that kick in without thought. I personally did Karate for about 4 months, enough to realize I didn’t have good muscle memory and stopped. I would say it didn’t embolden me in anyway, so lacking any statistics, we’re down to personal anecdotes.
Lastly, the Firearms/CCW training. @Gray_Ghost and I have already done this one to death in a prior thread, so I’ll just add my support that most professional trainers are dead set on talking you OUT of using your concealed firearm unless you are at personal risk of life. They know the legal, financial, and heck, even moral risks of using a firearm, and there is zero talk of shooting to ‘wound’ or ‘warn’. If you need to do either, you’re not a risk. So, no, the training probably doesn’t contribute to additional risk.
The group I would personally be most afraid of, is the armed group who has NOT had training, and are going to overreact in a threat situation. Right now, I see two main groups for this: Right leaning arsenal owners, who are looking for a TEOTWAWKI (the end of the world as we know it) as an excuse to be a hero by their own personal definition, and left learning first time gun owners who bought firearms ‘just in case’ due to COVID/Panic/Riots/Etc. Both groups have the weapons, but most likely do not have the training or the mindset to make an informed judgement in the heat of the moment.
Which brings me to my last point - I bet the answer varies HEAVILY depending on demographics. Education, location, economic group, sex, and of course, age probably figure largely into this. I mean, if you’re a teen/20 something male, you are already biologically primed for poor decision making, especially in a fight or flight situation. While if you are in the same group as a female, you’re a prime TARGET of violence, and your attitudes are likely less confrontational.
So TLDR - it’s too broad a generalization, and the answers are going to vary depending on a huge number of factors. 
Some food for thought -
That’s a good one!
Granted this is certainly the case in some situations (see: Kyle Rittenhouse). However, one of the things they drilled into us when I took a CCW class was that you should never do something because you have a gun, that you wouldn’t do without one. IOW, don’t go looking for trouble. For example, if it’s 10pm and you want some snacks, go to the Walgreens across the street, not the one a half hour away in the ‘bad part of town’, because you have a gun. Or if you’re at the gas station and you see the cashier getting held up, call the police, don’t go running in there, guns drawn. You wouldn’t have done either of those things last week when you didn’t have a gun, don’t do them now.
Slightly different situation, but a great example from my CCW class was when the instructors picked two people and gave them each a gun safe. One with a very easy combination (ie 1,2,3,4) and they other with a key. They were told to open their safe as fast as they could on the count of three. As soon as they counted to three, the instructors started banging on the desks, flashing the lights on and off, yelling and screaming and doing anything else they could to make create an overwhelming sense of panic and confusion. I think it took both of them well over 30 seconds to get them open. It was interesting to see them completely fall apart just because of some noise and flashing lights even though we were just sitting in a classroom. The point they were making was that you can’t just keep a gun in your nightstand or on your hip. You need to practice drawing it from your holster or grabbing it from your nightstand, getting the key, unlocking it, make sure it’s ready and aiming it. You need to practice, not until you can do it right, but until you can’t do it wrong. So even in these situations, it’s all muscle memory.
Freshman year of college I took a self-defense class taught by the guy who taught it through the local police department. He was worried because unlike everyone else in class I didn’t shout when they told us to during some move and told me that I needed to forget the “be nice/womanly” mentality women tend to be taught and shout. Yeah, turns out I scream like a fishwife when I have to; I just felt silly doing it in class.
It was a good class and made me aware that of how many women aren’t ever taught to defend themselves or to think that it’s okay to. When I worked fast food one day before open we were talking about what we should do if we were attacked and I parroted what I’d learned, ending in “when all else fails, kick them where it counts”. “Oh, no!” said one co-worker, “don’t do that! What if you permanently hurt him?” The rest of us stared. " He could be drunk and not really mean it!" She continued. We all said “he’s attacking, I don’t care”. She would not change her mind.
When they say ‘you shouldn’t own a gun (for self defense) if you wouldn’t be able to shoot someone’, that’s who they’re talking about.
I always wondered if I’d be able to shoot someone if I had to. A while back my store got held up. I was in the back on the phone with 911, and without even hesitating, grabbed a gun (there’s a few in the office for various reasons) and had it ready to go. I wasn’t going to go running out to the store with it, but had the guy made his way towards me, he would have been shot. I knew that wasn’t going to be an issue.
OTOH, one of my other employees, I found in a different part of the backroom (he was within earshot of what was going on in the store), looked like his feet were glued to the floor. He completely locked up. The police tell me that’s pretty normal.
And with that, an interesting takeaway is that it doesn’t matter who you are, how you train, how tough of a persona you have/project, you really don’t know how you’re going to react until you find yourself in that situation.
I also studied and taught MA for several years - all focussed on streetfighting/ practical self defense. Couple thoughts.
I think it is quite common for many people who study MA to go through a period where they feel “tough.” While they may not actually go out looking for fights, they wouldn’t mind if one occurred. And they might be more willing to get into pissing contests, just because they know that if push came to shove, they’d prevail. I’ve known some guys who actually WOULD go out and start fights.
Part of self defense is being aware of potential threats. When you go about your daily life mentally sizing up every passerby in terms of what you’d do if they attacked you - that can put an unpleasant cloud on your personality. It did for me. You also might tend to convey an attitude of confidence/invulnerability - encouraging predators to prey on someone else - which attitude might be unpleasant.
Another thing is, self defense is like insurance. You have to keep paying the premiums. The silliest thing is for someone to attend a seminar, and think they are bulletproof because the carry their keys in a certain way. But you hear that all the time.
You have to practice your skills over and over, in various scenarios, for them to be instinctual when needed. Part of self defense involves taking some punishment, to ensure that you will be able to respond after being hit.
And the BEST self defense is what we used to call Nike-do. Running away. So you might be better off training your windsprints! 
I chose not to carry a knife for various reasons - including not wanting to potentially be responsible for someone’s death. Personally, I feared that if I had a weapon on me, it might make me more ready to use it.
Long story short - I was over 40, and had incurred a couple of injuries from training which required surgery. I realized that in my life as a 6’+ male suburban husband and father, I could bring my risk down to damn near close to zero if I just didn’t hang out in bars and sketchy neighborhoods late at night. Moreover, if I REALLY wanted to give myself an advantage, buying and carrying a gun would be FAR more effective. But I chose not to go that route for various reasons.
Flash forward 15 years or so - I have not had a single situation in which there was any remote possibility of needing to physically confront someone. I’m pretty confident that nearing 60 not having trained in 15+ years, I could still acquit myself pretty well against most unarmed opponents. But I’d sure go to incredible lengths to avoid having to find out.
A comment or two on this. I am never saying to never go out and do the things you like to do. All I am saying is to consider the potential risks ahead of time, and have some idea how to mitigate them. Again, ahead of time. It is infinitely easier to think of these things in the clear light of day, sober, in a safe environment, than it is to think of these things while you’re stressed, maybe drunk/intoxicated, with people yelling at you, when it’s dark and noisy.
“Your actions under stress will default to the level of your training.” If you don’t think about these things, practice what you’ll do, your default is likely to be sitting there stunned, as Joey’s story related, while your brain tries to play catch up.
Mainly though, I wanted to comment on the quote,
convey an attitude of confidence/invulnerability - encouraging predators to prey on someone else - which attitude might be unpleasant.
Criminals are predators, and predators pick on the unaware. The mere act of paying attention likely will cause a hypothetical criminal to pick on someone else. Picking on someone else is what we, as non law enforcement officers, want to have happen. The best self-defense technique is to never get into a fight. You and I aren’t responsible for the next victim this criminal may choose to victimize. All we can do is ensure he shouldn’t pick you.
If you see something though, go right ahead and say something. Cell phones are wonderful things. Be specific in relating your concerns to the LEO professional at the other end of the conversation: “There’s a strange man, loitering in the parking lot. He’s not walking to a car or the door, but he is watching each customer enter and exit. He’s wearing a hoodie, in 90 degree temperature. Etc…” Then the cops can deal with it, or not, but you’ve done reasonably, IMHO, all you can do.
Conversely, if you’re walking around, head buried in a mobile device, earbuds in, you’re advertising to a predator that you’re not likely to detect the predator or defend yourself, before he can put his (it’s usually men) plan into effect. I’m quoting from someone else here, but:
“He came from out of nowhere!”
‘No he didn’t. You just weren’t paying attention.’
One great thing about a good self-defense class—as distinct from most martial arts classes, which are mainly for exercise and meditation, and good at both of those—is that it will teach you what you should be paying attention to.
I suspect you and I agree about far more than we disagree.
The second part of my post which you quote was inartfully intended to suggest that - at least for some men I’ve known, the line between confidence and cockiness can blur. We’ve all known the kind of guy who probably IS better at something that us, and never fails to seek out opportunities to remind you of that! Those are the - uh - BAD martial artists. Probably a minority, but I’ve known many. Go looking for trouble, and you’'ll likely find it.
I never really studied any one martial art, but I took the opportunity to study ANY fighting/defense style I could to see what it had to offer. Our main “school” was JKD, which also included BJJ, FMA, boxing … Sure we improved our fitness to improve our abilities, but never did any meditation. But I guess I always considered what I studied to be martial arts instead of self defense. I dunno, actually, I guess I mainly considered it to be streetfighting. Minor thoughts as to word choices.
I agree - anyone should be able to wear what they wish and go where they want, and they do not deserve to be attacked as a result. But if you go places that bad things are known to occur, and wear clothes and shoes you cannot run or fight in, or - as you said - are oblivious to your surroundings, well, you are tilting the odds against you.
I agree. I don’t think we disagree on much here at all. I know we’ve both seen, ‘Likes to Fight Guy’, and contrary to what many may think, he’s usually pretty good at it. Though a bad example of what this kind of training, I think, is supposed to be teaching people. I think I see now what you were trying to say.
Perfecting the movements of a kata has a lot of similarities with the rituals surrounding formal meditation. Clearing the mind of distractions, focusing on getting each piece of the kata correct, then trusting your body to execute the moves unconsciously at full speed: I see common points between that and sitting quietly in a room, focusing on your heartbeat and breathing. Maybe it’s me?
I’d argue where martial arts departs meditation is when an opponent appears. Though getting hit certainly focuses the mind away from whatever worry you used to have… I lack the experience to fall into satori when dealing with someone else to consider. That probably comes with practice; I just never sparred enough.
Yeah, I never really did any individual kata or other “rituals”. A couple of my kids did Shotokan for a while, so I’m familiar w/ them - tho I always thought them somewhat silly - at least for anyone other than kids. I COULD go into a different place working a heavy/speed/dble-end bag! 
Even most of my mirror work was “live” shadow boxing.
One buddy I used to work with A LOT was into some woo-type shit, like Reiki. I recall he used to try to get me into doing some tai chi/wing chun types of movements - I remember something about a lion and a ball, and maybe a dragon. But that never clicked w/ me.
I’ll agree with the OP that those who are armed and/or know self defense are more likely to be harmed in an extreme situation. Not necessarily because they are more aggressive (although some are I’m sure) but rather because they are less likely to retreat.
I don’t believe this always equates to a negative thing though. If I can protect my wife and kids from harm by sustaining harm myself I’ll definitely take that trade. Depending on the weapon involved I might be willing to sustain harm to protect my house/property as well.
I doubt most adult males take martial arts to kick ass in a random brawl. Boys, maybe.
How much MA did you train? You are correct that MOST adult males do not have that goal, but IME you would be mistaken if you did no think there was a significant number of such folk - the prevalence varying from school to school.
I met A LOT of incredible people doing MA. Met A LOT of thugs, too.
Me? Not at all. Just an observation from men I know that do.
As others have said, merely being armed, or having perfunctorily learned some self-defense technique, does not empower you that much, but being properly well-trained and practiced in self defense (armed or unarmed), meaning not just good skills but the right mentality, should help you prevent many situations getting to the point where harm is imminent. Someone who as in the OP example is “emboldened to be more confrontational” is Doing Self-Defense Wrong.
Of course, there is not much you can do about those persons of the “type who are predisposed to be more aggressive to begin with”, and those among them who think becoming armed or trained will just let them get away even further with their general dickery,
My CCW instructors stressed this as well. One day they played videos of attack situations (real security footage) and asked us how we’d react if we were there. One was completely misleading, and anyone who “stopped” the aggressor would have been attacking the wrong person. The purpose was to stress calling police instead of getting involved because we were armed. We also got a short talk from a person who’d actually shot and killed someone (found to be justified self-defense, no charges). He stressed it is a life-changing event no matter what the circumstances, and you may never get over it. It was quite a learning experience.
Later, I asked our attorney what would happen if I used my weapon, and his explanation was eye-opening. According to him, it will upend your life for a long time, will be extremely expensive, and maybe financially disastrous – no matter how justified. Quoting him (as close as I can remember): “No matter how nasty he is, he has a Momma and she thinks he’s an angel. And somewhere there’s a lawyer who’ll take her case and come after you. And even if you win, you lose.” He also warned me that the law will slowly grind through its own analysis and reach a conclusion about whether you were the criminal. And it won’t matter what you believe about it. The upshot was to use it only when you have no other option.
Personally, a realistic assessment of my abilities, reaction times, and increasing age led me to concentrate on giving myself more time. This seemed wiser than keeping the weapon close at hand (at home). As such we’ve hardened and fortified our house to a point many would consider extreme. But forced entry is now virtually impossible, and I have plenty of time to unlock and arm myself should a determined intruder do enough damage to make entry a concern. Presumably the police would arrive long before that anyway. Again, just a personal choice – it’s really difficult for an average old guy with bad night vision to mount a quick defense.
You make excellent points about the legal ramifications. As I mentioned upthread Gray_Ghost as well as many others went over this in great detail in an earlier thread: and boy do local jurisdictions make a huge difference in what is justified as ‘defense’. If you’re curious, the thread is
Gotta admit, I’m not a fan of CCW and support considerable regulation of gun ownership, but I have been impressed at the incredibly infrequent instances where civilians drew their weapons and started shooting - “playing cop.” I readily admit I had unfairly judged CCW folk.
Now these idiot open carry folk are something different…