Like I said in the other thread, I’m looking mainly at MA, MN, and CO. I think he needs to win all of them to retain any realistic shot at the nomination, and should probably pack it in if he can’t get at least two. I think he needs to win them by an average double digit margin and also pick off another state or two in order to say that Super Tuesday improved his chances.
The first four states I view as not having much changed the pre-primary dynamic of “he has a small but nonzero chance”, but after a certain amount of that, time becomes his enemy.