Best place to donate to flip the House?

JC I don’t really disagree with what you’re saying about people feeling the donations are good value. I’m sure people that donate money indeed would say they feel that money was better spent, and while I haven’t looked at any studies I would not be shocked if persons in that subset who donated to both local and national elections felt their local donation “mattered more” or something like that.

But we’re just talking about feelings there, not reality. People might feel Bayer brand Aspirin is better money spent than generic, but that premium they are paying is not based in reality. I’d argue the same is true of political donations, the value is always near-nothing and very low relative to whatever you’re donating. For brevity sake understand I am talking about individual contributions in relatively small amounts, and not talking about very large efforts by corporations, PACs etc which can engage in organized bribery.

I won’t dwell on it, but you’re also quite wrong about donations and voting, voting is a civic responsibility, giving money to politicians is not. In fact I’d argue it’s a civic harm and doing so just perpetuates the pernicious relationship between money and politics.

So the enumerated reasons you should not donate money to political campaigns or causes:

  1. Using the categorical imperative, lets imagine if everyone adopted my “no donations to political campaigns” as a universal maxim. What would be the impact? I’d argue it’d be only positive. All political money comes from individuals, whether it’s in a PAC, some corporate donation, or direct donations all money ultimately comes from individuals making a decision to give money to politicians. If everyone adopted as a universal maxim the concept of never donating money, then politicians would most likely have to all accept public financing and would get only the exposure the press gave them naturally. I’d say that’d be a great public good.

  2. There is good evidence that there isn’t a great relationship between money spent and votes gained. Many elections you see a clear diminishing return curve for each dollar spent past a “certain point.”

  3. You spend money on politics because you’re expecting a certain result. For example, that the House will have a Democratic majority and then they’ll enact certain legislation. However, there is a good probability the House will stay Republican regardless of how much money is donated to the DCCC. There is also a probability that if the House goes Democratic they will not pass legislation you want, or worse, pass legislation you oppose.

So the “investment value” of your donation is poor, due to all of the above uncertainty. You certainly wouldn’t invest money in a stock (wisely, anyway) that you felt had decent odds to be worth nothing in a year’s time. Compare this to what I donate my money to–charitable organizations. Two organizations I donate to monthly are the Nature Conservancy and the Trust for Public Land. Almost 90% of my donation goes to something I actually believe in and find important. Both appeal to me because they take a scientific, ownership based approach to conservation. For example with TPL my money is largely used to actually buy land that is conserved for all time, protecting it far more effectively than environmental lobbying/political groups. With the Nature Conservancy they do some of the same, while also developing things like conservation easements and building public-private partnerships to create large scale preserves.

  1. I’m a New York Yankees fan, I’d like them to do well and win as many World Series as possible. Does it make sense for me to mail checks to the Steinbrenners to see this happen? Or, does it make sense for me to buy overpriced merchandise that I won’t even wear just to see the team has more revenue?

Of course not. By and large they are going to make their money regardless of whether I spend any on the team. Because for every person like me, there are more fans who are willing to spend their money regularly on the team on things like game tickets, merchandise etc.

Politicians and politics are really no different. Say you want to see Eric Cantor keep his seat, should you spend your money? Basically no, you shouldn’t. But what if everyone adopted this philosophy on Cantor’s side of things, and his opponents all donated money to their campaigns? Well, most likely Cantor would lose because his campaign organization would be non-functional while his opponent’s would be well supported.

But the reality is by not donating, you are cashing in on the public stupidity. And this is the reason even if all my other points are invalid, you should never donate to political campaigns. The reality is the few people like me that want to see Cantor get reelected but won’t spend a dime to see it happen are outliers. Most people that are politically involved will donate some money or time or etc. Further, the big corporate donors and PACs will donate money regardless of what I do. This is true for whatever House member you’d care to mention. They will get their money, trust me, they will. By not donating money, you’re getting pretty much all the benefits if they win and not paying anything for it. That’s a rare opportunity where you can get “something” (still not much) out of a $0 investment.

People like the posters in this thread who are saying donate, they are going to donate regardless. So keep that in mind, there’s tons of people like them. You as an individual will never need to donate. In addition to them, there are big money sources of donation that are going to donate as well. By donating yourself all you are doing is validating the poor decision of other individuals who have chosen to donate, and subsidizing corporate and PAC donations.

The opposite point to this will always be “but if everyone thinks like you…” but that’s an absurdity. Everyone won’t think like you, most people will not be able to look at the game theory implications and understand that regardless of what you do most people that are going to donate are doing to donate. So your candidate and your cause is going to get money, and sufficient to run a campaign, regardless of what you as an individual do. As an individual you have very finite financial resources, and you’d be better off putting them to something where .84-.90 of the dollar actually goes to something meaningful if you’re looking to spend “cause money.”

Or you can put it in the stock market where you’re making an actual investment that brings actual return.

I suggest a reasonable compromise: Oakminster, Martin Hyde, and those who think similarly to them can refrain from donating money, while those who agree with DSeid, bengangmo, etc. can continue donating money. Win-win for everyone, right?

As far as the election(s) of Obama is concerned, there was a lot of ‘big’ money spent in opposition to him and a lot of ‘little’ money given to him. The 2012 Money Race: Compare the Candidates - NYTimes.com
I’d say that those smaller donation did make a difference.

But if every fan made the same logical decision you did, then the Yankees would go broke fairly quickly. You’re essentially off-loading the financial responsibility of supporting the Yankees to others, but continuing to enjoy the result. It may not be a logical fallacy, but it’s morally selfish.

Precisely, I’m speaking to an extremely small audience here. The very few people that choose as I do get all the benefit from people like you that stupidly donate money, and we pay nothing. It’s win-win for us, and lose-lose for you–but on some level you’ll think it’s good for you. We take advantage of your poor decision making.

A similar situation would be buying when something silly/transient causes share price to fall even though it has no impact on long term expectations of profitability. You’re taking advantage of the “stupidity of the market”, which is a very real phenomenon day-to-day.

Well, not quite, Martin.

All you’re really doing - as I see it - is defending a tragedy of the commons. Feel free to ride free, no one’s going to make you do so. But it’s that sort of issue that makes politicians less responsive to individual voter concerns. (Parenthetical aside: I once wrote to my senators - John Warner and George Allen - expressing concern about the war and torture and such. I got a very nice letter from Warner thanking me for my opinion and promising to do his best to represent the views of Virginians. From Allen I got nothing except an opportunity to join the Republican Leadership Committee for $1,000 donation. Asshole.)

Certainly, deadheading is your right. I don’t think anyone is disputing that. But how is it different from someone who doesn’t pay taxes (for whatever reason) still using roads and schools and such? There’s a difference, but I think it’s thinner than most might admit.

Or, to bring out the BIG guns…“What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly: it is dearness only that gives every thing its value.” You have received the benefits of politics for - effectively - free and therefore you don’t hold it in high regard. Working for a campaign - or simply donating and paying attention - changes that equation enormously because you quickly see the value in the work being done and the issues being fought.

Your post of 9:41 does contain an enormous fallacy, however, that I think undercuts the entirety of your argument. You state:

That contains an assumption that those who don’t donate are the oddballs, when instead MOST people will never give a dime. You used Cantor as an example so let’s stick with him. In his district there should be approxmately 550,000 - 600,000 people (based on general guidelines for congressional districts. I ain’t looking up the exact figures.) yet according to Open Secrets in the current election cycle he’s received only 474 donations of more than $200 so far. That means that - if we charitably assume that ALL donors to his campaign committee are resident in his district (unlikely, but let’s assume) the percentage of donors in VA-7 is 0.08618182% (474/550,000).

So fewer than one one-hundredth of one percent have donated. Rather than being the outlier, you are instead part of the huge majority! Most people don’t give a damn about politics other than to sound off about it over beers. And hell, 50% of THOSE people won’t even vote.

Each donation - however small - matters and can command the attention of elected officials (and aspirants) simply because there are so few donors. That’s why giving can be worth it, the fact that you give makes you a part of the elite group that will have their letters paid attention to. Even if they recipient doesn’t follow your advice/desires you will have been noted as having an opinion and that list is compiled each day (who wrote in with what opinion for all and then for donors) and is used to influence voting patterns in congress.

So yes, donations have power, even small ones. It’s unreasonable to assume that a donation will command the obedience of an elected official on all issues. However, it’s not unreasonable to assume that it provides the ability to catch the attention of elected officials. Build a habit of it and they’ll develop the habit of coming to YOU for advice. Invitations to special cocktail parties and dinners in private homes where face-to-face with the congressman is pretty much assured. That’s influence.

I donated to the DSCC once, and got a million phone calls (on my cell!), so I said never again. I donated to Obama last year, and the campaign… shared my number with the DSCC. :smack: Almost got me to finish my citizenship application just so I could vote Republican. :wink:

Not quite. I do believe that the organization I’d donate to are different ones than the ones you’d donate to. If right now there are many people like me donating a hundred or so to the DCCC, for the first time ever, and many people like you, not donating to the other side … well I don’t see it playing out as you do on that win-win-lose basis.

No shit my individual donation matters less than what Big Business does (which seems to be pulling back from the hard Right and hedging more to the Democrat side) but there are lots of people like me stepping up to this plate for the first time ever; one thing I am sure about is that I am not so special or unique. And fewer I suspect on the other side of the fence. Money translates to organization and turn out.

Hence I did not give my phone number. They took my money anyway.

Yes . . . Hm . . . Y’know, guys, there’s really no point in voting. Don’t even . . . that is, let’s not bother any more.

Premature question. Ask it again after the primaries.

For most campaign donors, not having the other guy elected is satisfactory benefit.

If he gives to the DCCC or the DSCC that won’t matter since they won’t get involved until after the primary.

Just flipped $100 to the DCCC. And they didn’t ask for my phone number.

It won’t help this year, but your best bang for your buck might be to give money to a state office candidate in a gerrymandered state. Small donations are more likely to swing things in state elections where there isn’t a huge glut of money, and these can have big payoffs in 2020 when redistricting occurs again.

This was the basic strategy behind the permanent Republican Majority, which while it didn’t work, has kept the Republican party more viable that it otherwise would have been.