Mixed feelings. Beto got totally unhinged during his presidential primary run. Still, the Democratic bench is very weak in TX and he starts with massive name recognition and is a proven fundraiser.
Abbott has definitely gone full Republican nut job with abortion, voting and defiance of any Covid restrictions. Will he start losing even more suburban voters?
IANATexan, but although I can see that Texas voters who already despise Abbott might well turn out for O’Rourke, it would surprise me if there were enough of them to give O’Rourke a realistic shot at winning.
Yeah, I’m not convinced there’s a line Abbott could cross that would drive voters to O’Rourke. If the whole energy grid thing and handling of COVID and the draconian abortion laws didn’t do it, there’s little that would.
Beto is a classic empty suit (or empty blue jeans), who got massive hype in the runup to his disastrous Presidential bid based on personality worship.
If Texas Democrats are dumb enough to nominate him, it means a tough race becomes an even more uphill fight against Abbott or a Republican challenger, one of whom thinks Abbott’s anti-Covid measures have been too restrictive, and another of whom is a commentator on Glenn Beck’s TV network.
But the question is who’s the alternative? Julian Castro, whose presidential bid was just as disastrous? Lina Hidalgo? She’s great, but we’ve had great Democratic candidates from Houston before who couldn’t build a statewide following (e.g. Bill White).
Beto’s at least shown he can raise money and get votes statewide. I agree though that the election will be a referendum on Abbott regardless of who the Democratic candidate is.
I tend to think that 2022 will be interesting. Abbott’s handling of the pandemic and the February winter storm have alienated a surprising number of people. Not necessarily to the degree that they’re going to go vote Democratic across the board, but very possibly against HIM personally. So yeah, I subscribe to the personal referendum theory as well.
But the question is exactly what @flurb says; who has the chops on the Democratic side, who isn’t a several-time loser, whack-a-doo, or mostly unknown? This is more or less a structural issue caused by the Republican stranglehold on the Legislature and at-large state offices; no Democrat has been able to build a statewide base, without losing several races. Beto is as close as we’ve got, but I’m not sure a close senate race and a disaster of a presidential run can translate into a successful gubernatorial run.
If they were smart, they’d figure out who to run vs. Dan Patrick who can win, not vs Greg Abbott, as the Lieutenant Governor is the position with the real power. Governor is, in normal circumstances a rather powerless position. I’m not sure Collier is the way to go either, as I’m not convinced that his 5 point loss to Patrick wasn’t due to a good chunk of Beto voters.
I’m not sure what this refers to. He didn’t win the nomination, but I don’t think many expected him to. People seem to like him. He has my blessing to throw his hat in the ring and see what happens.
His excessive use of profanity, the weird livestreams of him at the dentist or getting a haircut and his endorsement of gun grabbing.
Also, he dropped out right before the Liberty and Justice dinner. I doubt his supporters, who came to Iowa in November on their own dime, appreciated that shock.
O’Rourke made a signature issue out of gun control. That is not going to play in Texas. Not happening. No way.
I actually don’t think his comments from the presidential campaign (“Hell, yes, we’re going to take your AR-15, your AK-47”) are all that politically damaging. His comments were made after a gunman murdered 22 people in his hometown. He was never going to get the “from my cold dead hand” voters anyway.
The politics of gun ownership in Texas are changing. There’s a lot of support here for responsible gun ownership. But along with abortion bounties, the legislature here just passed legislation to allow anyone to carry a handgun in public – openly or concealed – without a permit or license. That may be a step too far for your average suburban soccer mom who just want to get a latte without being caught in a spontaneous shootout after a car backfires.
I think Beto pretty much killed whatever chance he had of winning statewide office with “Hell, yes, we’re going to take your AR-15, your AK-47!”
In Texas, even left-leaning folks tend to be pretty moderate on gun control, and one of the things that helped him in his run against Cruz was that he didn’t press the issue too hard.
But, if he runs for governor, you can bet your ass the Republicans will be including that line in just about every campaign ad, and working their damndest to portray him as a big government-loving, gun grabbing clown who wants to take away your sacred right to self-defense.
With the sad state of the Democratic Party in Texas, this would be an uphill battle regardless. But, if it wasn’t for that huge fumble, I probably would have given Beto 50/50 odds, maybe even slightly better than 50/50, against Abbott. If he runs now, though, I think he’s just setting himself up for a big trouncing, like every other sacrificial lamb the Democrats have put up for governor over the past 20 years.
The actual effects of this policy will be negligible. Most gun crime is just an extension of street crime, and the people who are going to be doing the shooting don’t know or don’t care about whatever the laws surrounding legal gun ownership may be. I’ve never heard of a shootout occurring because a car backfired (cars hardly ever backfire nowadays) or for any other sound that’s mistaken for a gunshot. This scenario is not going to become a public menace that motivates suburban soccer moms to suddenly take an increased interest in gun control. These days, soccer moms seem to love their guns as much as anyone else.
Abbott’s poll numbers are low but COVID cases will gradually decline and memories will fade. In the end, for Texan conservatives, they’d rather lose their entire families to COVID than face the possibility that someone might impose a single solitary gun restriction.
Yep, Beto’s career in Texas politics is over at best he can get a mayoral slot in a Blue big city but any state wide run for 20 years will just have him talking about literally taking people’s guns.
It would be nice for Texas to have a sane governor though.
I don’t get the Democratic love of the guy.
Maybe I’m just a hopeless optimist, but the polling I’ve seen on the permitless carry bill runs about 60/40 disapprove/approve. Requiring background checks for all gun purchases runs about 20/80 disapprove/approve. Most Texans just aren’t the rootin’, tootin’, pistola-shootin’ caricatures they’re made out to be.
Now Beto may have gone too far with his rhetoric, but there is room in Texas for a Democratic candidate to make “gun safety” and “preventing gun violence” a part of their campaign. And I think it’s silly all of the people who think he’s dead in the water because of a line from the campaign. He wouldn’t be the first politician to recover from a gaffe – our current and immediate past Presidents have reputations as gaffe machines.
All of that may be true - and I’m not trying to turn this into Gun Control Debate #1,986 - focusing specifically on O’Rourke and his record, there is a big difference between the poll numbers on that one permitless carry bill, and O’Rourke’s own statement that “hell yes we’re going to take your AR-15”. The AR-15 is the symbol of American gun ownership, and we’re talking about the governorship of Texas here, not one district’s congressional seat. I just don’t see it happening.
Supposedly Matthew McConaughey was thinking about running.
A new poll has him nine points ahead of Abbott.
https://news.yahoo.com/poll-matthew-mcconaughey-outperforms-beto-203344352.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
He may be nine points ahead now, but as soon as he expresses any opinions about gun control, abortion, voting rights or anything else, he’s going to alienate some of the electorate. As it is, he’s basically a blank slate.