So, the Green Party wants trump the Republican in office, the party of environmental disasters, and denial of Global Warming?
Yep. Fuck off. They should be ashamed of themselves.
Nope. Looks like wishful thinking at best, outright scam at worst.
A decision based on wishful thinking is still a decision. You don’t seem to grasp the concept that people make decisions based on factors that you personally would not consider to be valid.
Oh, I grasp it all right. Doesn’t mean I have to like it.
I think that lots of people who will eventually vote for Biden aren’t excited to vote for him. So in the run-up they hem and haw and it looks like he and Trump are neck-and-neck, but when the time comes they will pull the lever for Biden.
I think a lot of voters don’t live Biden’s age, and they wish they had someone more “dramatic” or charismatic to vote for. Or if they’re farther left, Biden appears too moderate for them.
Personally I wasn’t excited to vote for Biden last time but he’s proven to be one of the most quietly transformative presidents of my lifetime.
A third party candidate could still throw a wrench in the works, or if Trump doesn’t get the nom or is barred from running then a different GOP nominee might change the math. But if the race ends up being Biden vs Trump, I feel pretty confident that Biden will win again.
My take is that due to the dislike of both candidates the polling is reflecting mostly the disinterest of the major center group (largely white people) in the 2024 election. But since they still show up to vote it will come to the last month of the voting season for many of them to make up their minds. This has been the case for 20 years, a large group claiming to be “independent” but really a bit on the conservative side. They actually do not care for government at all, a big part of independents being just enough libertarian. That also explains Trump voters showing up. The first candidate they had that had a libertarian twist. (Though fake, it was there: end regulation etc.)
Other that hard core MAGAs no one really dislikes Biden. They just wish for a young or female or minority or wonderkid or someone who will magically appear that not only would be better that Joe, but who can beat trump. Since that person doesnt exist, they will line up and vote for Joe over trump. But right now, they are holding out for a unicorn candidate.
And of course, with Biden being only slightly left of center in today’s politics, there are lots of progressives who think he could be more… more what is not clear.
Biden is not perfect. It’s just that if you put him on a scale that includes trump, he comes out as a ten.
Since Trump beat his polling averages at the ballot box in both his general elections, I question this being the case for all of the last 20 years.
?That actually supports the post you dispute?
To me any election will hinge more on turnout than anything else.
And the issue may be who people feel they have to vote against than who they want to vote for.
I’ve seen it hypothesized that Trump – moreso than other recent candidates – has a significant group of “bashful” supporters: people who won’t admit that they voted for (or intended to vote for) Trump, because he is so polarizing, and they don’t want to publicly acknowledge their support for him. If this hypothesis is accurate, it explains why Trump, in particular, outperformed the polls in 2016 and 2020.
I just read TeroSunbear’s post a few more times and there’s a good chance I didn’t get it correctly. If so, I apologize to TeroSunbear.
If you mean general turnout: High turnout used to favor the Democrats, but is that still true?
Agreed. Polls now show negative net approval for both, and I don’t see that changing.
The big unknown, compared to all previous presidentials, is of course is whether a likely criminal conviction will hurt Trump. I could take both sides there.
I mean turnout by each side. Not general. General turn out average with high D and low R would be fine!
I don’t either. But what the top lines don’t report is the intensity of the negativity by each group, especially in voters who are not every election voters.
The are young progressives who have a soft disapproval for Biden, for example, who might stay home if it is Biden v some GOP nominees, but who will come out to vote against Trump. Likewise for some suburban centrists whose Biden dislike is that he is too liberal but who really hate Trump.
Or it could go otherwise.
What I tried to say is that the voters are highly affected by ads on TV and events in the news. So that they really only decide in the last month of the election cycle if they are not lifetime Republicans or Democrats. Nothing to do with Trump specifically. Since there is flipping from both sides to the other, this process is hard to follow by polling. Nobody runs a poll in 2024 November asking “are you still voting for the candidate you supported a year ago?”
“Look, anybody who thinks this is not going to be very competitive … they are not paying attention to American politics,” Mike Madrid, a Republican consultant who has become a prominent critic of Trump, told me. “It’s going to be close. It’s going to be close for the next 20 years.”
At this stage of the election, with primaries going on for the GOP, people asked the question “who would you like to vote for” only seem to hear “who do you want nominated for president?” The actual voting business comes later.
I’m struggling to see how those are in any practical sense different ideas. If I am a GOP member, the person I’m going to vote for is the one I want to see nominated. And the one I want to see nominated is who I’m going to vote for. Same thing.
A similar logic would prevail in any closed primary for any party. It just happens that this time the Ds won’t really be having one unless something catastophic happens to Biden in the next few months.
Since there is a paywall and no gift link shared would you care to quote a bit of the part you find most relevant? I can only afford so many subscriptions.
Well, let’s see.
Is there anyone here who doesn’t yet have a preference should the nominees be Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Cornel West for the Greens, and Chase Oliver. for the Libertarian Party? I’m not asking for a name, but to find out if anyone is really undecided.
My hypothesis is that, in this cycle, minds were made up unusually early.
You get a certain number of free articles.
“It is a sad reality that the race could be this close given Trump’s position, but it is. And I think it’s very clear that Trump can win this race if the election was tomorrow,” the Democratic pollster Andrew Baumann told me.
Political operatives and scientists agree on one key reason Biden and Trump remain so closely paired in a potential rematch: In our polarized political era, far fewer voters than in the past are open to switching sides for any reason.
But more than structural “calcification,” as three political scientists called this phenomenon in a recent book on the 2020 election titled The Bitter End, explains the standoff in this summer’s polls between Biden and Trump. The two men are pinioned so close together also because they are caught between the four forces that have most powerfully reshaped the electoral landscape since they first met, in the November 2020 presidential election.
Two of these dynamics are benefiting Democrats; two are bolstering Republicans. Combined, these four factors appear to be largely offsetting each other, preventing either man from establishing a meaningful advantage as they proceed toward their seemingly inevitable rematch.
The reason this makes a difference is that only some 80-85% of voters pick Trump or Biden. If an independent voter is given those choices, that group is likely to fluctuate. They can be persuaded that Trump is bad if they bother to listen to news. So saying that Trump at 46% vs Biden at 43% is of some meaning is stretching it. Only the battleground states count. Even there we have pretty much nothing yet. Michigan : President: general election : 2024 Polls | FiveThirtyEight