This election is starting to make me feel physically ill.
If it makes you feel better, http://pollster.com has a slightly more optimistic view than your link. I think your link uses the most recent poll for each state while pollster uses the trend. Make of each what you will.
These are close to worthless this far out. Let’s see after the debates and after Palin’s little marionette show with Charlie Gibson.
You may want to look at that link again. It has McCain over Obama 47 to 44. I am startying to gat a little sick myself.
Electoral votes is what you want to be looking at there. Pollster has Obama ahead, with many votes in the tied/toss-up column.
I firmly believe that Ohio and Michigan are going to go Obama, although on slim margins. The economy is bad, no matter what McCain wants to believe, and it is only get worse. Voting for the party in power would be like getting beat up by the school bully and then asking if he wants your lunch money too. If the parties were reversed, it would be the same way. But I have been suprised before.
Kind of like what happened in’04?
Thanks for the link, Gangster Octopus. Those numbers are a bit more encouraging, especially the trend lines for New Mexico and Pennsylvania.
What what what?!
Electoral-vote lists NY as weakly Dem?
I know upstate is a bit, well, rouge, but I had no idea NY wasn’t considered a safe Democrat state.
Is this accurate or does this suggest taking the current map on the site with a grain of salt?
I think their definition of “weak” is something like “less than a ten point margin”. If you click on NY to see the graph vs. time, it doesn’t look like it’s in any danger of going for McCain.
As of right now, Intrade has McCain ahead 51.7 to 46.6. But it’s still a long time till the election, and the debates haven’t happened yet. Nothing is set in stone.
Perhaps you should see your doctor.
As I said, I have been suprised. But, the ecenomy was not nearly the state it is in now. Housing market had not yet gone poof and the cost of gas was still reasonable. I seem to remember expectations of a turnaround.
Split the difference and look at Ohio in 2006. Almost every executive state office switched from R to D. Again, things were not this bad then. Of course, the Republican candidate for governor was an embarassment. Why the guy that many beleive handed a very unpopular president Ohio’s votes through dirty tricks was runnning is beyond me.
Its not that I see much visible support for OBama, but I see very little in the way of McCain bumper stickers and yard signs around here. Four years ago, it was an even split. Not that is a very scientifc polling method.
ETA - Please forgive spelling mistakes and typos, I miss having Firefox at work or even an up to date version of IE.
I’d be interested in seeing a couple more New Mexico polls. Maybe it’s legitimate but it sure seems that Rasmussen gave NM a big jump from a significant Obama advantage most of the season to a McCain advantage. I’m not saying it’s wrong but it’s definately surprising to me.
I watch electoral-vote dot com closely. McCain is leading in Ohio. He’s gone from losing to winning in New Mexico and South Dakota. He’s closed the gap to less than five points in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Colorado and even Washington State. He has narrow leads in Florida and Virginia. Say what you will about it being early in the race or quote margins of error if you like…but this is recent quantifiable polling data showing progress for McCain in nine states that carry a total of 126 electoral votes.
Sure things could change…but Sarah Palin is proving to be a very effective weapon in energizing both conservatives and women. If she remains effective and the McCain campaign lives in the rust belt and the west to consolidate gains and try to take Michigan and Pennsylvania, Obama is done.
And so are we.
The polls coming out now are showing the height of McCains convention/palin bounce, the week before Obama was winning in a landslide. This is not a good time to be handicaping the election but the fact that McCain is only barely up after all the so called energizing of his base at what should be the peak of his polling is good news, not bad.
We haven’t even had one debate yet. I don’t know what people are getting their panties in a pinch all about.
Hold on I have a wedgey.
Aagh! Ulcer! Ulcer!
I’m not very confident that the debates will affect the race much. Kerry was widely seen as having “won” at least the first (and possibly all three) debates with Bush, but as I recall his performance didn’t translate to much of a bump in the polls. I know this election is different, etc., etc. I just don’t think debates sway very many people.
I really, really want Obama to win. But I’m becoming…concerned.
Aren’t nearly all of the polls using the “likely voter” metric? Guess who the non-likely voters, who have been turning out in droves this whole electoral cycle way beyond expectations, are more likely to vote for?