What are McCain's chances

[Jolly_Roger]

bear with me. I’m in a hotel. All of my belongings and my car are being shipped to NC…I won’t see any of them for weeks if not a month. My wife, three cats and I have to fly out monday morning. we’re all going to be stressed, angry, jet lagged and tired on Nov. 4th.

So I’ve been trying to keep cool…watching CNN on TV. (the wife and cats are staying with a friend that lives across the street from where I am staying…the thought is I’d be happier on my own for a night or two than in an apartment with 4 crying cats…our friend has one…and two women)

And all I hear is how McCain is going to turn it around. How he has a good chance at still winning. Am i reading the right news or misinterpreting the polls i see or anything? Are those 1 in 7 undecided voters that big of a boost? CNN’s poll online last time I checked would make it impossible for McCain to win even if he got all of the states leaning towards him. Sure, that isn’t an exact science, and theres a chance he could win, but from where I’m standing it looks like he has maybe a 25% chance. I’ve already voted and so has my wife via absentee ballot. She was leaning towards McCain until she saw Palin. I’m glad that she did and changed her mind and voted for Obama. I literally feel like i want to vomit when I hear Palin speak. Now I wonder if McCain pulls a Dewey on this…what do you all think?

[Captain_Carrot]

Do remember that when Truman won, everybody had stopped polling in September, and their polls weren’t very accurate anyway. Neither of those is the case today. McCain is forked.

[Jolly_Roger]

@Captain_Carrot

Do remember that when Truman won, everybody had stopped polling in September, and their polls weren’t very accurate anyway. Neither of those is the case today. McCain is forked.

I don’t remember when Truman won…I wasn’t even born yet!

But i see your point. I’ve just seen so many talking heads on TV this last night and morning and they keep saying “Mccain can still take Pennsylvania, blahblahblah” and *“Ohio, yeah, McCain will win Ohio! Blahblahblah”. *(understand that I haven’t seen a TV at all for ten days or so since my stuff shipped so I’ve been junk fooding it)

I think the latest CNN poll has Mccain at 160 electoral votes tops.

[Discordia]

He needs divine intervention to win.

The talking heads just want people to watch their shows, they’re full of shit.

[John_Mace]

I don’t know which talking heads you’re listening to, but even the ones I see on FoxNews are saying McCain has little to no chance of winning. You might be hearing some Republican strategists talking up a McCain upset, but that’s another matter.

[Bartman]

fivethiryeight.com is listing his chances at 2.8%. And I think that is certainly in the neighborhood. I can see a path to victory for McCain even at this stage, but it is extremely difficult.

Right now it is 4th down with 20 to go. McCain is down by two on his own 40 yard line with 3 seconds to go and has no time outs. He needs to get 30 yards to get his kicker in range, he needs the Obama team to commit a foul to stop the clock, and then he needs a really good kick from his kicker who evidently just broke her leg in a wardrobe malfunction. In short barring a miracle that will be discussed for decades to come… it aint happening.

[Clothahump]

Obama’s entire campaign is based on the stupidity of the American voting populace. He’s betting the farm that Americans will ignore the fact that he’s an empty suit who espouses Marxism, and simply be captivated by the “ooohhh…shiny” factor.

Sadly, this election year, I feel that the braindead will outnumber the thinkers and Obama will be elected. I hope I am wrong, but I fear that I won’t be.

[Jolly_Roger]

@Clothahump

Obama’s entire campaign is based on the stupidity of the American voting populace. He’s betting the farm that Americans will ignore the fact that he’s an empty suit who espouses Marxism, and simply be captivated by the “ooohhh…shiny” factor.

Sadly, this election year, I feel that the braindead will outnumber the thinkers and Obama will be elected. I hope I am wrong, but I fear that I won’t be.

You’ll excuse me if I disagree. IMO you’d have to braindead to vote for McCain who really hasn’t offered anything new and has the bonus points of picking the completely unqualified Palin for VP.

“Empty Suit” is a better description for McCain, and its not an “ooooh shiny” feeling that makes me vote for Obama. Sadly I’m afraid that too many people are willing to base their votes for McCain on the mudsling he’s done on Obama. After all, he and his cronies haven’t said anything but mudslinging monkey poo on Obama have they?

[Moriarty]

@Clothahump

Obama’s entire campaign is based on the stupidity of the American voting populace. He’s betting the farm that Americans will ignore the fact that he’s an empty suit who espouses Marxism, and simply be captivated by the “ooohhh…shiny” factor.

Sadly, this election year, I feel that the braindead will outnumber the thinkers and Obama will be elected. I hope I am wrong, but I fear that I won’t be.

Cite regarding the fact that Obama “espouses Marxism”. Please don’t give me a link to someone saying Obama espouses Marxism. Instead, I’m asking for a specific example of Obama actually espousing Marxism. I eagerly await your response, as my research skills have failed me.

[Jophiel]

A few days ago, people were saying that McCain was down by 6 and would need to make up a point a day to break even. Now, three days out, McCain is still down by 6 (6.4 according to RCP) and would need to make up 2 points a day to break even.

That’s just nationally, of course.

[BJMoose]

Snowball.

Hell.
Any questions?

[Lightnin]

@Clothahump

Obama’s entire campaign is based on the stupidity of the American voting populace. He’s betting the farm that Americans will ignore the fact that he’s an empty suit who espouses Marxism, and simply be captivated by the “ooohhh…shiny” factor.

Sadly, this election year, I feel that the braindead will outnumber the thinkers and Obama will be elected. I hope I am wrong, but I fear that I won’t be.

Congratulations. You just insulted most of your fellow Dopers, by insinuating that we’re “stupid” and “braindead”.

Yeah, that’ll get us to vote for your candidate.

[susan]

I for one welcome our shiny Marxist overlords. Seriously. Because our sanctimonious capitalist overlords have treated us with such terrific contempt.

[Revtim]

@Jolly_Roger

And all I hear is how McCain is going to turn it around. How he has a good chance at still winning.

You are hearing that directly or indirectly from McCain’s campaign, likely. Of course he can’t say there’s almost no chance of winning, because that will turn it into absolutely no chance of winning. People don’t vote for pessimism, even if it’s just realism.

[Bryan_Ekers]

@Clothahump

Obama’s entire campaign is based on the stupidity of the American voting populace. He’s betting the farm that Americans will ignore the fact that he’s an empty suit who espouses Marxism, and simply be captivated by the “ooohhh…shiny” factor.

Sadly, this election year, I feel that the braindead will outnumber the thinkers and Obama will be elected. I hope I am wrong, but I fear that I won’t be.

Well, you’ll have the next four years to writhe in agony as America crumbles, but this week, what can McCain do to improve his chances?

[jimmmy]

I’ll what if. (full disclosure : I will vote for Obama and anticipate that he will win)

Really at this point it looks like the most realistic “what if” is for McCain to win Ohio AND Pennsylvania. I would submit that McCain knows that and has been almost exclusively focusing his time and money and what star power he can muster on these two states in the end game. The Washington Post has a front page story today on this strategy.

How realistic is this chance?

According to polls taken Tuesday/Weds Obama leads McCain by 10ish points in Pennsylvania (53%-43% with 7% undecided pretty much trending Obama over the past week). Both Ed Rendell and Murtha have stated that the polls are wrong and PA is closer than the polls indicate.

In Ohio Obama leads by 51-47% with 3ish percentage undecided and a 3.5% margin or error - although the number are consistent, it is not insane to think it looks better for McCain here than Pennsylvania. Again he needs them both in this scenerio.

Still, even with these two the Straight Talk Express still needs some combo or surprise come from behind wins in the below:

Florida where Obama leads by ~3.5%

North Carolina Obama leads by ~3ish%

Virginia Obama leads by ~5ish%

Colorado Obama leads by ~7ish%

Iowa Obama leads by 13% (with about 12% still undecided)

While holding on to narrow leads in

Missouri McCain leads by ~2ish%

Indiana McCain leads by ~2ish%

Small fry: MT Mccain leads by 3, ND Obama leads by 1

The Aunt story has to explode, or people freak if OBL endorses Obama are also scenarios that could change things.

Ultimately though IMHO the real way that McCain might win is that the models overestimate African American, new voter and youth turn out. If that happens all these numbers are gibberish. That seems a thin reed to hang your hopes on - but in a nontraditional election I can’t claim that it is insane to hope that.

[Quartz]

Short of Obama having a Stimson moment, methinks McCain’s toast.

[Fish]

Here’s the situation according to CNN:

Obama has: HI, WA, OR, CA, NV, CO, NM, MN, IA, WI, MI, PA, VA, MD, DC, DE, NJ, CT, NY, VT, NH, ME, RI, and MA for 291 EV.

Tossup states: ND, MO, IN, OH, NC, FL

McCain has: ID, UT, MT, WY, AZ, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, LA, AR, MS, AL, TN, KY, GA, SC, and WV for 160 EV.

John McCain would need 270 to win — a 269-269 tie would send the thing into Congress, which doesn’t favor him at the moment. In order to pull off the upset, McCain needs every swing state listed above (ND, MO, IN, OH, NC, FL) to give him 247. Then he needs 23 more EV in some combination from elsewhere. The big states worth 23 EV aren’t like to flip for McCain (IL, CA, NY). He would have to win both PA and VA in order to squeak by.

How likely is that? Well … not very. McCain is 8 points behind in PA, 8 points behind in VA, and 4 points behind in OH. In addition, the states CNN lists as under McCain’s wing aren’t very solid; some of them could tip Obama’s direction depending on the turnout of African-American, Hispanic, and young voters. Particularly vulnerable are MT, AZ, and GA. Those 3 states together are the equivalent of Florida’s EV count — and if McCain can’t hold MT, AZ and GA, then FL won’t help him.

To make matters worse, McCain doesn’t have many volunteers on the ground getting out the vote, and Obama does. McCain is counting on television ads to swing several points in multiple states, and GOP strategists don’t think that TV is worth more than maybe a single point. Meanwhile, Obama has a well-organized Get-Out-The-Vote program, which may be worth 2-3 points in his favor, over and above his existing lead.

If you ask me, a layperson, McCain’s got about 1 chance in 30 of not getting shellacked, and even that 1 chance he’s got would have to be a squeaker.

[Bryan_Ekers]

@Quartz

Short of Obama having a Stimson moment, methinks McCain’s toast.

I think you mean Stillson, and I agree.

[wmfellows]

@Clothahump

Obama’s entire campaign is based on the stupidity of the American voting populace. He’s betting the farm that Americans will ignore the fact that he’s an empty suit who espouses Marxism, and simply be captivated by the “ooohhh…shiny” factor.

Mate, it’s a sad refrain when one blames the fact your man is getting whacked on “the stupidity” of the electorate. Sad when the Left does it. Sad when the Right does it. And Marxism? Good lord, you don’t have any idea about Marxism if you find this guy Marxist (well perhaps a colouring book for five year old analysts version of Marxism).

Sadly, this election year, I feel that the braindead will outnumber the thinkers and Obama will be elected. I hope I am wrong, but I fear that I won’t be.

Ironic, this whack, since you just accused the fellow of Marxism, which anyone familiar with actual live Marxism in all its loathsomeness, has to laugh at. It certainly doesn’t imply you’re a “thinker.” Rendering your snideness … ironic.

Frankly, after the long period of incompetence by the Bush Administration, it’s a good thing to have the Republicans lose, as one should not reward incompetence with another mandate. At least normally speaking the non-brain dead are against that. Helped the Tories out, being taken to the woodshed. Hopefully Obama is your Blair or something reasonably similar.