After the Second Presidential Debate earlier tonight, and looking at the electoral maps (let’s just say www.electoral-vote.com and www.fivethirtyeight.com as two that had Obama at over 340 EVs and moving up today) and current trends, I’m going to shake my Magic Eight Ball, and expect to see a definitive “YES” come up (to be honest, I’ve tested Magic Eight Balls, and they have ten yeses, five noes, and five maybes on an icosahedron).
Basically, I propose this thread as the continuation of the original McCain is forked thread, which, let’s be honest, has largely been a discussion among Obama supporters about the latest polls and trends and news and everything that deals with predictions about the election. Basically, there seems to be a need for an omnibus discussion thread on the chances of each candidate to win (i.e. we’re focused here on what’s going to happen, not so much what we want to happen).
So, I propose this thread as the next chapter in the long, continuing, yet still inevitable Obama March to the Presidency Story. So, without further ado, I offer up the following statement for debate:
John McCain is sitting on the precipice of electoral disaster. Unless something major happens, he can’t keep Obama under 300 EVs. Discuss.
The undecideds are making up their minds right now, and all the polls are showing a major shift to Obama. And once those swing voters swing, it’s hard to unswing them. People don’t like to admit they picked wrong. Once they make up their minds they tend to latch on to anything that validates their choice and ignore anything that undermines it. So if you want them to swing back you have to give them something overwhelming. I have a hard time imagining anything that could do it at this point – not even another terrorist attack or Bin Ladin being captured. It’s just too late in the game.
Being a Democrat and a Cubs fan, I can never be too secure in winning, but this is the first time in the election where I’ve felt that there’s a better than 50-50 chance Obama will be our next president.
I can’t remember which message board I said it on, but I did say before the playoffs that I would gladly forgo the Cubs winning the national league pennant, much less the World Series, if that meant an Obama victory come November.
Being a Democrat and a Red Sox fan, I have some sympathy, but I have, thankfully, gotten to feel what it feels like to actually pull t off. And, completely based on my own very biased judgment, this election brings me the tinge of excitement that I felt in '04 about the Red Sox. Never quite got that from the '07 Red Sox, but that wasn’t the same thing.
As far as McCain/Obama goes, though, McCain is decidedly the underdog in the polls these days, and I don’t think his debate performance made up any ground. And I can’t see any reason that anything else coming up will.
I am not confident in an Obama victory. Electoral-vote.com shows the capital of the Confederacy (not to mention North Carolina) going for Obama, which makes me deeply suspicious of every poll. Polls have an abysmal record of predicting the winner of elections within their margin of error, and Republicans are able to manipulate public opinion one hundred bajillion times more effectively than Democrats.
My prediction is that McCain will win the election, and the next day all of us are going to be scratching our heads over it. I’d like to be wrong, but this has all happened so many times before that I just can’t imagine that it’ll be any different this time.
The line I’ve been watching is the blue one on the second plot. This is the sum of the electoral votes from states in which Obama leads by more than 5%. That’s more than the typical margin of error, and so is the number he can be reasonably sure of.
While the overall trend has been a slow increase, only yesterday was the first time Obama had a significant lead in more than the 270 electoral votes needed to win. I’ll not worry as long as he can keep this up. Even if the close states all break for McCain (which is unlikely based on current polling), Obama will still win.
Compare this year to Kerry’s performance and you’ll see a remarkable difference.
I’m worried that the dailynational tracking polls over the past two or three days have been tightening up quite a bit. Hotline has Obama up by a single point, and Zogby by only 2. The other polls still have Obama up by five or more, but they too have narrowed.
I’m not sure what to attribute that to. McCain’s more negative ads? The passage of the bailout bill allaying some economic fears? Margin of error effects? In any case, I don’t like it. This election is making me crazy.
I wouldn’t trust Zogby to tell me if squirrels like acorns but that’s a personal bias.
The race tightening is normal and I’m refusing to get flustered over a slight shift in the overall numbers. I guess I’ll wait to see how (if) the last debate affects things, how the Troopergate report on the 10th comes out and what the state numbers do over the next few days.
Well, Richmond always goes Democratic. But more generally, Virginia has been getting more and more Democratic for some time, so it’s not really shocking that it’s trending toward Obama. I mean, it’s within the realm of possibility, especially because of the current state of the economy, an umpopular Republican incumbent and that Obama has been running a strong campaign and McCain a weak one.
Mosier, polls have shown Obama with a lead in Virginia for weeks. Do you distrust all of the polling companies? Besides, the reason Obama is winning Virginia is pretty much the same reason Kaine and Webb won: the Northern Virginia area is becoming more populous and more Democratic, and they maximize the vote there while minimizing losses in the rest of Virginia.
I really hope that Obama wins by a significant margin on the popular and electoral. It would be the best thing that could possibly happen to the GOP, winning would be the worst thing. It would maybe make the GOP question its tactic of appealing mainly to the petty hatreds of its constituency.
I feel like it’s a football game, 4th quarter, and my team is hanging on to a 7 point lead and trying to run out the clock. The time can’t go by fast enough.
And each debate is like a risky pass, or a punt – it’s an opportunity for McCain to put points on the board. I’d be perfectly happy if the last debate got canceled.
I feel more like it’s a baseball game. Top of the eighth inning, up by three runs. Our starting pitcher is still in the game and he’s pitching a shutout.
And the opposing team manager is shouting, red-faced, at the umpire, kicking dirt on his shoes.
