With yet another debate come and gone, and polls showing McCain having lost overwhelmingly, especially among undecided voters, I think it’s looking less and less likely that the Democrats are going to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. I wouldn’t bet on it.
Another interesting poll result: Link.
It’s not looking good for the grouchy senator from Arizona.
My personality is to always expect the worst-case scenario. I expect the Bradley Effect + voting day hijinks will add up to at least a 10% difference (from the polls) in many states.
In other words, Obama has to be ahead by at least 10% for me to feel he’s running even in any given state.
Rough translation: I still think McCain could win. (Although it appears to me he’s trying to lose.)
For what it’s worth, the Bradley effect pretty much disappeared in the '90s, from what I’ve heard and read.
I understand the trepidation that people might be feeling, given 2000 and 2004, but in 2004 we were looking at undecideds and guessing as to how many would break which way. This time around, we’re talking about Obama being up in VA, FL, CO, NM, NV and pretty close in IN!
He is at this point, pretty darn forked. You’re entitled to your fork and I’m entitled to the fork, and he’s been bent over and forked raw.
We haven’t seen it tested at this level yet though, hence the apprehension.
BTW, first Key Lime Guy and now Captain Carrot. This thread is making me hungry.
Is it possible Mosier is talking about exit polls, which have indeed shown to be relatively innacurate?
The other day I saw a comparison of Gallup’s accuracy over the past fifteen elections: what’s the winning rate of the candidate whom Gallup cited as having the poll advantage in early October? IIRC Gallup’s polls were correct in all but two cases: the outliers were Gore (cough) and Dewey.
Edited to add the obvious missing data point: The day of this comparison, Gallup had Obama up by nine points.
I am waiting for the Reps to find a way to wipe a few million Dems off voter rolls across the country.
That said I have a small belief that the polls this time around may be undercounting support for Obama. IIRC they only poll “likely” voters…voters who voted before and perhaps some other criteria. Obama has managed to get loads of young voters and first time voters encouraged in this election. If they can actually get those voters to the polls (and admittedly they typically don’t vote in huge numbers) I think the actual votes at the end of the day could be hugely in favor of Obama.
A an NC State fan who still remembers the 1992 Peach Bowl[sup]*[/sup], I can’t even allow myself to think about an Obama win. I’m too afraid I’ll Jinx it.
Viriginia is almost more Northeast than Southern these days.
The thing is Obama will almost certainly carry every Kerry state. Plus he pretty much banked New Mexico and Iowa. With Colorado, Missouri, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Nevada, even West Virginia, South Carolina, and other states in play to put him over or at 269, it is very hard to see how McCain will find a way.
I give 300 EVs a 70% chance at thsi point.
Right. And that’s just about the predictive power of Oct. polls for the Nov. election. Mosier seemed to be suggesting that the polls aren’t even accurately reflecting today’s preferences.
Maybe he was thinking of exit polls.
What is the Bradley effect?
Well, Obama doesn’t need either Virginia or North Carolina. All he needs to do is pull off the Kerry states + Iowa + New Mexico + Colorado, and he’ll have enough to win (273/270). He doesn’t even need to take Ohio or Florida. He can even afford to give up New Hampshire, which will throw the election to the House, which will still most likely result in a Obama victory.
That a black candidate’s performance will be worse in the election results than in the preceding polls, because a certain percentage of people will chicken out at the last minute.
I think it was named for Tom Bradley (LA Mayor) when running for California Governor.
Refers to Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley (who is/was black), in his race for California governor. His actual votes were substantially less than polls, which led some to infer that people lie to pollsters if the candidate is black, presumably because they’re afraid an anonymous person on the phone might think that they’re racist.
I am not seeing a lot of people mention Ohio in the list of states Obama can potentially take, but RCP is currently showing a 4-point lead for Obama here. A lot can change in the next month, of course, but I find this encouraging.
You’ve also got to remember the so-called “ground game”, though. On election day, volunteers will call up folks who are likely to pick their candidate and remind them to vote, give rides to the polling places, counter the other side’s hijinks, etc. The folks at 538.com say that this makes as much as a 5% difference, when one side is much better at it than the other, and Obama’s ground game seems to be the best anyone can remember, while McCain’s is the worst.
National studies indicate that 6 percent of voters say they will not vote for a black for president. The question is how many more wont and say they will ? I will worry until the vote is sort of counted.
If the news reports I’ve heard are any indication, ranging from little old ladies telling the non-anonymous interviewer they weren’t comfortable voting for a black man to the racist shouts at recent Palin rallys, it is a fear many people got over. Sad, but it shows the Bradley Effect has less relevance.
UPDATE Today Gallup is up by 11 and has been double digits each of the last 3 individual nights of polling. (Yeah Rasmussen is down a notch.)
When McCain was up by 6 points, I said it was far too early for anyone to get cocky or despondent, and that the lead could easily change a couple more times in the last couple of months of the campaign.
That’s still true. There’s less time now, but it looks like there may be a bit of movement towards the McCain camp. The new Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby poll only has Obama up by 2, and the FD/Hotline poll has him up by 1. I suspect both of those are low, but it looks to me like Obama’s lead may have dropped by a point or two.
I’d also be worried about an ‘October Surprise’. This is far more likely to come from McCain than from Obama, for the simple reason that McCain has been vetted repeatedly, and any skeletons in his closet are likely known by now. Obama - who knows? He’s spent a lot of years being a politician in a very unsavory environment. There may be dirt there that the McCain camp is holding onto, just waiting for the last week of the campaign. We’ll see.
Right now, you’ve got to say Obama is probably a 2-1 favorite to win this thing. But I wouldn’t plan the victory party yet.