I strongly think that if the McCain camp had anything new to share, they’d have done so already, instead of trying to recycle the old, familiar, tired, discredited Ayers, et al, crap.
Waiting this late is way too risky to spring an effective surprise. They should have sprung one in early September, if they had one.
My feeling is, all they got is a crappy, grouchy candidate with a clueless running mate.
Obama’s history is pretty well known as well. I don’t think an October surprise will reveal any new dirt on him.
That’s not to say that I think there won’t be an October surprise. I just think it’ll be of a different nature than scandals about the candidates’ past. I think the sharply declining gas prices are part of an October surprise, because they couldn’t be happening at a better time to benefit the candidate oil companies prefer. We’ll see gas around, possibly even below 3.00 up until election night, I imagine.
The REAL question is how many of that 6% are claiming to vote for Obama?
It doesn’t matter if 40% of the country won’t vote for a black guy* if all 40% say “McCain” when polled.
*Number made up to prove a point
However, even when McCain was up by four (or six, as you say) he was never notably higher than 270 in the electoral college map. Obama is well above that at this point. His dominance in the national polling has been unchanged for about a week, too.
Further, he beat McCain on economic issues by 20 points in the debate last night, and that’s where people’s concerns are right now.
Of course it is. There are a large number of unknowns with polls; they are at best an educated guess about the future election. Anything could and may still happen, from wide-ranging disenfranchisement of voters, to a disaster in a key state that interrupts polling, to a terrorist attack, to the revelation of some particularly motivating as-yet-unexplored scandal. However, those odds are all long shots, and even if it happens, it’s hard to see which way things would break.
Even a terrorist attack is no longer unambiguously in McCain’s favor. The public has seen how McCain responds in a crisis — absent orders from Bush, he blames it on Obama and flails in all directions. And right now, Bush doesn’t have the political clout to convince a monkey to fling poo.
I still stand by my baseball metaphor: Obama has the home field advantage, and it’s the top of the eighth with only a 3-run advantage. McCain’s team has 2 innings left to pull off the grand slam, and even if he does, Obama still has the bottom of the 8th and 9th to play. Obama is still pitching well, and the bullpen is nicely rested. Meanwhile, McCain’s manager is in a dispute with the umpire; you can sense the frustration as the wheels are starting to come off. But the game ain’t over.
Thanks for the answer.
I was going to say something about making sure the toothpick comes out clean, but then I shuddered in horror at the implications, and changed my mind.
'ang on a minute…
When McCain was up, and i don’t think it was by more than 2-3 points, it was all the result of the expected and temporary convention bounce. Which was actually more of a Palin bounce, but its basically the same thing. Personally i thought all the comments pronouncing doom and gloom by fellow Obama supporters were pretty laughable at that point. This Obama lead is different though, McCains bounce was guaranteed to end, it will take something big for him to come back at this point. The only thing i can think off would be a terrorist attack on american soil.
As far as the Bradley effects goes i just can’t believe that nowadays people would feel the need to lie to anonimous pollsters. Im sure back in the old days people took that stuff a lot more seriously that they do now.
I find this highly, highly doubtful. For one thing, Obama didn’t just show up at the DNC in August and say “Hi guys, I’d like to run for POTUS!” The primaries were a long, hard, sometimes dirty fight. If there was anything about his past that was serious and could stem the wave of support, I guarantee the Clintons would have found it, and would have used it.
Which leads me to the other reason I find this unlikely. McCain doesn’t seem to be running the smartest campaign ever. He wants big surprises that will change the direction of the polling and he wants it now. If they had something damning on Obama, it would be in every commercial in every state. All of his campaign surrogates and “pundits” would be taking over the media. There would be ten threads on the SDMB about it right now. I’d guess that as soon as McCain knows something, the whole damned country will know it.
The non-partisan pundit-types on CNN last night were talking about how they weren’t sure there was going to be much Bradley Effect on Nov 4, in the same way that they didn’t see evidence of it in the primaries. Anybody have thoughts/info on this?
Never happened. RCP’s average shows McCain’s lead peaking at 2.9% on September 8. Only one individual poll ever showed McCain up by more than 5.
I doubt it. McCain’s pretty much exhausted his quiver. He’s not really running on issues, and he chickened out from confronting Obama directly with his wild smears.
Who cares if Zogby has a poll? The Big Three trackers (Gallup, Rasmussen, and Research 2000) have Obama up by 11, 6, and 10, respectively.
By the same token, a lot of McCain’s dirt from across the decades has simply been ignored or overlooked. That isn’t to say it doesn’t exist, though.
For instance, in the 1980s, McCain was on the board of directors of the U.S. Council for World Freedom, “part of an international organization linked to former Nazi collaborators and ultra-right-wing death squads in Central America,” according to the AP.
Too late - I’m already preparing the canapes. 
Intrade shows the betting at a shade under 3 to 1.
McCain’s not running a very smart campaign and I doubt he will be very effective in using an October surprise even it came along. For example in the last few days his campaign has been going on about they will get tougher on Obama on his ties with Ayers, Rezko etc. However McCain didn’t raise those issues in the debates. If thought it was a sound strategy he should have used the debate to pursue it. If he didn’t think it was a good strategy (probably true) he shouldn’t have raised it in the first place. Not for the first time he is floundering around without any clear plan but just jumping from one stunt to another. The “suspension” of his campaign is another example.
So even if an October surprise comes along I doubt McCain will make good use of it. Yes, there is some unlikely combination of events which could lead him to victory but I wouldn't give him more than a 20% chance at this point.I’m not going to relax about this election until Jan. 21, 2013.
His boasting to bring up Rezko/Ayers in the debate, and his failure to do so, is in my opinion the sign of a man who is too easily swayed by polls. The pre-debate chatter was all about how the people wanted the candidates to stick to the issues. Stop attacking. Tell the truth. Tell us what’s going on. No bullshit.
My guess is that this is the reason why McCain didn’t, despite having promised others he’d “take the gloves off.” He has a habit of saying what he thinks people want to hear, at the time.
But for the sake of argument, imagine it: a terrorist attack. Never mind for the moment whether it’s real or imagined, never mind who’s responsible. What could the candidates say?
McCain could say, “This is why you need me. I can keep you safe.”
Obama could say, “Then why haven’t you? This attack proves the Republican approach has failed.”
I suspect there may be an October surprise, not from the cranky old guy heading the GOP ticket, but from the bearded guy in a cave in or near Waziristan. If he speaks up, I’m sure his game will be to ‘endorse’ Obama with the intention of driving votes away from him.
I’m sure that’ll have some effect if it happens, but I think most Americans have already intuited that Obama’s most likely to keep a level head in a crisis, and McCain’s the one most likely to do something erratic. So I doubt even Osama can do much to hurt Obama’s prospects at this point.
I bet Team Obama has had a plan ready for how to handle everything from a new Osama tape endorsing him, to a terrorist attack on a Western target.
I simply can’t imagine Osama bin Laden doing anything of the kind. If McCain is elected, we will certainly send more troops to the Middle East.
Which once again would do wonders for Al qeadas recruiting, much like the Iraq war did.
We had a nice October surprise thread going for a few minutes. Let’s get real here: Bin Laden hates America and he’s never going to endorse either candidate. He’d compromise his own credibility immensely.
Bin Laden would be overjoyed at the opportuinity to kill more crusaders.