Say what you will of late trends, and McCain getting a boost because of the convention and Palin, but all those things considered, this race should not be this close at all.
I´m still (very) cautiously optimistic that Obama will win, but I can imagine McCain winning it as well.
It´s really sad that so many people are voting for McCain. Any other developed country presented with simialar choices and the same circumstance, and Obama would be way ahead IMHO.
I can’t believe I actually ran a poll search this a.m., and the results made me feel ill. This way led to near madness 4 years ago…
So I’m sticking with Lichtman’s Keys to the Whitehouse. 
Wake me up when its over.
(For those unfamiliar):
The 13 Keys To The White House
The Keys are statements that favor the re-election of the incumbent party. When
five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party wins. When six or more are false, the challenging party wins. Accurate within +/-2:
KEY 1 (Party Mandate): After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
KEY 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
KEY 3 (Incumbency): The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.
KEY 4 (Third party): There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
KEY 5 (Short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the election
campaign.
KEY 6 (Long-term economy): Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
KEY 7 (Policy change): The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
KEY 8 (Social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
KEY 9 (Scandal): The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
KEY 10 (Foreign/military failure): The incumbent administration suffers no major
failure in foreign or military affairs.
KEY 11 (Foreign/military success): The incumbent administration achieves a major
success in foreign or military affairs.
KEY 12 (Incumbent charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a
national hero.
KEY 13 (Challenger charisma): The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
This country is knee-deep in racists and dumbasses, and Palin has energized them into action. That sucks, and it’s demoralizing.
However, most people approach elections sincerely. They may not follow polling data and parse every statement they way we do, but they try to make the right decisions. They do vote from their gut, but there’s something to be said for respecting your instincts. In the rest of your life, that approach tends to pay off.
Smart people of good will have misgivings about Obama. When somebody promises to make your world better, they’re usually lying. Skepticism is a virtue, and Obama is so smart, and so good, I can respect someone who thinks he seems too good.
I’m voting enthusiastically for Obama. I like his policy positions, but I have to admit that I’m voting for him because I like him. I’m voting from my gut.
Here’s a guaranteed path to failure: keep dismissing McCain’s voters as stupid. Keep wetting yourself every time the polls drop. Give up when the winds change.
You want Obama to win? Get out there and make it happen. Find your nearest office and volunteer. Make calls. Register voters. Send money to the campaign. If you’re already doing these things, keep it up and don’t get discouraged. An inexperienced black guy and a loudmouthed plagarist are in a dead heat against a beloved long-time senator and made-for-TV hockey mom. They’re pulling off a miracle, and they will probably win. Grow a set, and help make it happen.
I count 2, maybe 3, "True"s (whether or not we’re in a recession is debatable). But I still feel sick, because this election does not seem to be about the issues, and I don’t think Obama can be successful sticking Bush to McCain. I think the populace is sick of hearing about Bush, and sees McCain as a refreshing change :rolleyes:, but not as scary as Obama.
Obama does have a significant edge in money (right?), which will start to come into play.
On the other hand, I wouldn’t count on the presidential debates. Obama is not a particularly good off-the-cuff speaker, surprisingly. He stammers a lot.
Biden should wipe the floor with Palin, but no one chooses the candidate based on the choice of Veep – no one will vote for Obama because they don’t like Palin. On the other hand, Palin may serve to get out the vote, and the donations.
Don’t feel good about this.
Add Dr. Alan Abramowitz*'s analysis, and it spells decisive victory for Obama.
He updated his barometer reading just 2 days ago.
*Dr. Alan Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University, and the author of Voice of the People: Elections and Voting Behavior in the United States.
One point worth considering is partisan identification in the polls. Essentially–aside from registration status–pollsters ask for party affiliation (D/R/I) and vote (Obama/McCain/Undec.). Pollsters and political scientists assume that party affiliation is far less subject to change than voting choice.
Now suppose aggregate polling over the past few months shows 40% of your respondents were Dems, 35% were Reps, and the rest undecided. But today’s sample of 1000 calls includes 30% Dems, 40% Reps, and the remainder nudecided. Do you report the voter choice numbers as collected, or do you weight the responses such that the choices of Dems are weighted higher than the choices from Reps, assuming you just got unlucky in your sample this time?
This article makes the point that many recent polls show a huge gain in the number of identified Republicans in the sample. This seems to fly in the face of trends throughout the year and the massive voter registration drive underway among Democratic field workers.
I hope so, but being right on five straight elections isn’t really all that impressive in my book.
And Dr Abramowitz should probably take into account that all previous races have been White Guy vs White Guy. Hate to say it, but this election is different.
A good example of the problems surrounding poll methodology comes in a recent NC poll by Survey USA that showed McCain suddenly taking a large lead in the state.
In this most recent poll, 41% of respondents claimed to be Republicans vs. 40% Dems and 16% Ind (numbers do not sum to 100% presumably because people could skip the question). This is quite different from a poll take one month earlier showing 46% Dems, 33% Reps, and 18% Ind. Furthermore, comparison with neighboring states does not show such a jump for the GOP, and according to the NC Borad of Elections, 45% of voters are registered Dem, 33% Rep.
Is NC an outlier/bad sample? It’s probable, but there’s no definitive way to tell until election day…
Obama could still lose but IMO it’s not likely and I don’t think the last two weeks have changed the fundamentals of the race against him.
McCain’s campaign strikes me as performing one desperate gimmick after another which boosts his numbers in the short run but severely damages his strategic assets.
McCain’s biggest asset was the widespread perception that he was a serious national figure, a statesman who was widely respected even by people who disagreed with him. The Palin pick and his increasingly frivolous and dishonest campaign have virtually destroyed that image among the many journalists who respected and admired him . By election day I think that will come back to haunt him. All it’s bought him is maybe a couple of points lead in the national polls.
He has virtually stopped using the experience argument which IMO was Obama’s biggest weakness and the Palin pick makes it unlikely he can use it effectively in the future. He is trying to campaign as an agent of change but I don’t think it will work: his platform is too similar to Bush and Palin’s reformist image will be severely eroded in a couple of months after her full Alaska record is fully aired.
Palin has helped him significantly in the short run but I think she will cost him a big chunk of moderates by election day. The more scrutiny she gets the less suitable she will seem as VP. She didn’t perform well in the Gibson interview and the more shielded she is from the media the less ready she looks.
Obama’s campaign isn’t perfect. He needs to sharpen his message against McCain as well as regain some of his inspirational message which has perhaps become muted in recent weeks but overall I think his campaign is in decent shape.
People on the SDMB keep talking about how terrible a pick Palin was and how McCain’s campaign is going off the rails.
And every time I look at the polls, McCain is doing a little better.
Well, like I said I think it’s helped him in the short turn but destroyed his biggest strategic assets and hurt him in the long run. I guess we will have to wait and see.
All depends on how you look at it. Electoral-Vote.com shows Ohio going to McCain. But that is a product of that site’s averaging of polls. Sure one poll released today shows McCain 48% and Obama 47%, basically a tie. But the Quinnipiac U. poll shows McCain 44% and Obama 49%. A five point spread is something to take notice of. I think there is something hinky in the polling of swing states at the moment. Not sure what the problem is, other than things are not settled yet after the conventions.
So what do you think Obama’s chances are? Obviously you think they’re favorable. But I can’t imagine you believe there’s no way he can lose, right?
McCain has to find something to keep the momentum going. He may very well have peaked too early in the campaign. Palin-mania is likely to wear off in the next few weeks, unless democratic operatives turn her into a victim by smearing her like we see happening on this MB. n.b.: I’m not saying all criticism of her here is a smear, but there sure is a lot of it.
I believe if Bush starts an inmediate pull out from Iraq and gas drops to about 2.50 a gallon Obama would have a good chance of losing. Barring that only a mayor scandal could cost him the election.
I know. And I remember how adamant this board was that Kerry would win, and how everyone kept posting this figure or that analysis to prove that it was a forgone conclusion, and then I squee a little with glee. The election is far from over, and it could easily go either way, but the more dogmatic and defensive the posters here get, the better I feel that the country is going to wind up electing the right man.
I’m pretty sure the Palin pick is going to put McCain in the White House.
According to reports on Drudge, many Democrats are starting to wonder how they found themselves in this situation. Eight years of one of the most unpopular Presidents ever, a Republican, and yet the Democrats are striving desperately to keep at least equality in the polls?
To my infinite astonishment and delight, it looks like the Dems could well be blowing it again!
How are Democrats in this position?
They didn’t pick Hillary.
And Obama didn’t pick Hillary.
If either of those things happens, McCain doesn’t pick Palin. The Democrats are united and pumped. Hillary is a known quantity. Something the Democrats never considered is that when the people are feeling uneasy and scared and worried about the future, one of the things they look for is security. Obama is asking them to take a big damned flyer on him. There’s never been a President with his kind of qualifications. He’s quite far to the left, and he’s got a non-traditional background. They like the ‘idea’ of Obama - a fresh face, someone who might bring change - but he’s also a pretty big risk.
Also, I don’t think Putin helped the Democrats a whole lot. As national security starts to dominate the headlines more again (and not just the ‘war on terror’, which people are tired of, but real threats from nations), they’re going to be more and more worried about what someone like Obama might or might not do.
But this election is far from over. I think the debates will be decisive. However, I also think the bar might be a lot higher for Obama in the debates than for McCain. McCain just has to come out of them not looking diminished. People know who he is. Obama actually has to prove himself. That’s what Reagan had to do before the electorate swung in his favor. Until the last debate, he was pretty much neck and neck with the Democrat.