No, I don’t want to bet any money.
I would certainly have thought that the conditions were ripe for a Dem blowout. No way this race should even be close. So it has to be the candidate…it’s probably 30% attributable to BO’s relative inexperience, and 70% (hate to play this card) race.
This is probably a topic for its own thread, but I think I could live with a McCain administration.
On the downside (we are dealing with the Dem viewpoint in this thread), the Supreme Court will be very conservative for a very long time. Roe v Wade will go, and the states will be free to outlaw abortion. Offshore drilling would be inevitable.
On the upside…Dems will control both houses, which will keep a check on any reckless new wars and particularly egregious nominations.
And I believe McCain is sincere about his desire for reform. And I truly think we’ll be done with the most venal, corrupt and vindictive aspects of the Bush administration: signing statements, no-bid contracts, politicization of Justice, EPA and NASA, etc.
And I will pray daily for McCain’s continuing good health.
Picking Hillary would have accomplished the same thing picking Palin did, energize the republican base.
Keep in mind, that the McCain scutiny in the press will start to pick up now. The media always goes after the hot hand, so they were “picking” on Obama for a while, but they are starting to turn their attention to McCain.
Quite simply, it is going to be close.
I agree, and I’m not sure how the Dems can stop that.
The smart money’s on Obama at Intrade for 48 cents on the dollar right now. Even if he doesn’t win, you can be pretty sure that his stock will climb before it falls.
I noticed that today too. A few months ago I signed up for a “play” account on Intrade where you can participate, but only with play money (they give you $5000 play money to start). I really wanted to invest (bet) * real *money there because I’ve been confident of a McCain victory ever since he was the apparent nominee (full disclosure: I desperately want Obama to win, but I am on record [8 or 10 months ago?] as predicting that neither Obama nor Hillary ever had any chance).
Because I was seeking to bet real money I asked around in one of the threads here if anyone knew if Intrade was on the up-and-up. No one really knew. I did a search for other Intrade mentions too but didn’t find any. When I first opened it I did try to fund my account, but after I couldn’t use my credit cards or make a electronic transfer from my banks, I decided to give up–I was worried my money wasn’t safe.
Boy, I sure wish I had pressed ahead on funding my account! I bought the McCain “play” stock there at $39 and now it’s at $51 (on its way to $99 when McCain wins). And it was always so clear to me that McCain was a steal at $39! Drat!
Your last paragraph is 100% right. If you want it, you MUST get out there and make it happen.
Sometimes I wish I could be put into a medically induced coma until a Democrat is in office. This waiting is getting to be too much. If Palin somehow becomes President, don’t bother reviving me. 
Obama is done. Obama was done. Obama has *always *been done. The sad and surprising thing is that so many people could not or would not let themselves see that.
It is certainly not through any fault or weakness of Obama that this is so. It is mostly because we live in a nation populated largely by knuckle-dragging morons who believe in a Tooth Fairy.
Obama mayy rise up and take the lead again in the EV polls, then maybe fall behind again… a little ‘back-and-forth’ to keep the wags tongue-ing… but then the Cretinists (sorry-- Creationists) and the racists and the haters-of-intellect–among** both** parties-- will step into the booth alone. The booth where they no longer have to answer to their mother or their liberal brother-in-law or some pollster. The place where they are all alone with their fearful, bigoted thoughts. The place where they won’t vote for Obama.
That works both ways. My wife makes calls for the Obama campaign. She’s talked to a few people who’ve had to whisper into the phone–supporters who can’t or won’t let their family know they’re voting for Obama. This is in Portland, a liberal hotbed.
I’ll hold off on those thoughts until the last debate. Obama should know by now his game plan isn’t working and I think he will come up with something. Up until now he was just holding his lead, but now he knows he has to find a way for McCain to go below 40%. Problem is that McCain has been around long enough that he knows what will counter most attacks against him. Obama has to come up with something fresh. In 2000 Rove won by calling him unstable because of his torture. I don’t think Obama could get away with that, but he still has time and money to find something that will work.
I have to give McCain a lot of credit though. Only one month ago Obama was touring Europe while McCain was touring supermarkets. He is one tough bastard.
Two points:
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You have zero basis for that remark regarding racism, period. 70%? Get serious. Racism works both for and against Obama, after all.
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This drives me nuts. It happened in 2000, it happened in 2004, and it’s happening now.
I keep hearing from Democrats that “it’s so-and-so’s to lose.”
You’d think there was only ever one candidate in any of these races. How about McCain is currently winning.
This is the type of crap us knuckle-dragging morons really hate. Its amazing that we can even hold down full time jobs. Yes, the liberals are so much more intelligent than us mouth breathers.
How about Obama is way too liberal for me and so is the Democratic party. And this is the case for many of us cretins. So keep on insulting us, not that we could possibly be smart enough to understand the insults.
Uh-huh. And the number of potential pro-Obama racists is about 10% of the number of potential anti-Obama racists. It may cut both ways, but not with equal strength.
You said it–not me. Perhaps you missed this:
I made no distinction between liberals and conservatives. Although, one could argue that creationism, racism and anti-intellectualism are more prevalent among conservatives. Perhaps that is the way that you view things. I, however, have made no such assumption.
You *do *seem to have had some trouble comprehending my insults. For example, did I insult you? Are you a Creationist, a racist or a hater-of-intellect? If you are well, I’m sorry, but you have brought all the derision deservedly on yourself and have no one else to blame. If you are not those things… well, I’m glad, and I hope you see now that I didn’t insult you. There are perfectly valid reasons to choose McCain over Obama. Those reasons are not what my original post was about.
I wouldn’t say Obama is done. Two months is an eternity in a campaign. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the lead change a couple more times yet.
But it’s certainly not looking good. And you know, I said a year ago that having the media in the tank for Obama wasn’t doing the Democrats any favors. He got to skate through without a serious look at his record, without him having to go through any real stress or take any real heat, and so you guys really had no idea what you were getting. Hillary Clinton made the same point: the media wasn’t doing its job vetting Obama, because they so badly wanted him to win they weren’t digging for dirt.
Think about it: Obama’s records in the Annenberg Challenge, one of the only paper trails that might show how he’s managed an organization, weren’t even requested by the media until a right-wing reporter asked for them a few weeks ago. And yet, a team of 30 lawyers is going through every expense document, every memo, every E-mail Sarah Palin sent or signed since she entered public life. There is a very clear double-standard here.
But aside from whether they’re being fair, the thing is that it was in the Democrat’s own interest to uncover all this and to put some real heat on Obama a long time ago, while they still had a chance to pick a different candidate. Instead, they stuck their heads in the sand and let him skate, because his story was so compelling and he was such a moving public speaker. I guess they thought they could win an election on nothing but soaring oratory and a charismatic leader.
They should have known that once the general election started, the Republicans were going to put the heat to him that the media and his own party should have put to him a long time ago, and the result was going to be a crapshoot.
Oh but it’s one helluva crap shoot you have to admit Sam. Obama’s got people excited for something different than McCain and Palin can offer. And yep, the country can’t decide to choose the brown one or the grey one. But’s it’s one helluva show for sure. I don’t think McCain is going to be able to cinche this from Obama, many issues that are very important to a lot of people McCain is not able to deliver on. But the country will remain divided. For every one person who says they won’t vote for McCain there is one who won’t vote for Obama. This will be a squeeker, and I don’t think Palin will be the deciding factor tiping the scales in Obama’s direction. It’ll be McCain’s inability to give the country what Obama has to offer, a fresh face, a fresh look, and a boat load of good judgement.
Where they wouldn’t have voted for any liberal Democrat.
Fellow Dems? if you keep saying that Obama will lose due to racism, it will come true. STFU.
Here’s todays map. Dead heat.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/
Good lord, all this Sturm und Drang!
Attention all Obama supporters: Knock it off!
Quit paying attention to meaningless polls.
Quit allowing the media to scare you with their hysteria.
Quit hand-wringing and panicking.
You’re behaving just like Republicans who allow Bush McShame to scare them into hysterical panic to drive their votes.
Barack Obama has never given a rat’s ass about “polls”. He started the primary race 30 points behind in the polls. Hillary Clinton continued to maintain a significant lead – in the 20s – in the polls for months. Even during the primaries, when he was winning state after state, he often still trailed in the polls.
Polls don’t matter – voting matters!
Barack Obama is a brilliant campaign strategist. He took on a well-loved (amongst Democrats) 2-time former President, his First Lady and current Senator wife and all their deep connections and support in the Democratic Party and won.
Barack Obama has had his ground game in place in all 50 states since the beginning of the primaries. He, and his army of volunteers, have been working day in and day out, registering millions of new democratic voters. Those people aren’t registering just so they can sit out this election! Bush McShame is getting a very, very late start in his ground game, and just like Hillary who only figured it out in the last 2 months, it’ll be too late.
So stop whining and DO SOMETHING TO MAKE SURE WE GET TO TAKE OUR COUNTRY BACK!! [ul]
[li]Make phone calls using the Neighbor to Neighbor tool at barackobama.com[/li][li]Sign up to volunteer with the campaign[/li][li]Find other supporters near you and join forces to canvass your neighborhood[/li][li]Donate money[/li][li]Create a profile and set up your own fundraiser and get your friends and family to donate through it[/li][li]Make sure everyone you know is registered to vote[/li][li]Find events in your area[/li][li]Check out the Action Center to find out what else you can do to help[/li][/ul]And yes, Bricker, I am 100% certain of victory here. And no, I’m not going to “make a bet” like a 5 year old.