I think Trump would love to run against Harris. The smear machine would instantly swing into high gear, and they do know how to savage a woman of color. They’ve had those ads ready for a long time.
Kamala Harris was my first choice in 2020, until I saw how poorly she campaigned. I think she’s a great policy wonk and would make a fine president, but she’s not great on the campaign trail.
If you liked Hillary, you’ll love Kamala. If you’re a Republican.
Things get more complicated after a candidate is formally selected by the party. Now, if Trump dropped dead, there would be ripple effects such as shortages of popcorn and extension units to double flagpole heights, but they wouldn’t affect the election mechanisms. Once he formally becomes the candidate, replacement gets more complicated, especially if not everybody is on board with having the VP candidate take up the banner.
Research? What am I researching? All the other times anything like this has happened?
How the heck should I know? There are plenty of great potential candidates.
You mean Steve Bullock, Andy Beshear, Mitch Landrieu, Pete Buttigieg, Mark Kelly and Beto O’Rourke? I think (I could be wrong) those are the only ones I’ve listed anywhere. They’re hardly unknowns. Plus, most campaigns don’t announce running mates until summer anyway. Harris naming a running mate in July would hardly be unprecedented for a candidate, and would give as much time for voters to get to know the person as any other presidential election cycle.
To Harris? It seems it’s not an issue.
I’m less concerned about true-blues, like me and you, who would vote for a grilled cheese sandwich to keep Trump out of office. It’s the less-engaged voters who are going to stay home if their impression of Biden is that he’s no longer fit for the job. Or maybe it pushes them into the arms of West or Kennedy.
If some true-blues are “disappointed,” well, I’m sorry for their disappointment, but are you telling me their disappointment would keep them from voting for Harris?
This has less to do with his actual fitness than how the public perceives him. I never claimed to be his doctor and you know this. You want proof of the one thing that matters this election? The number of registered voters, and notably Democrats, who think he is fit to be running is going down. Hell, after the SotU–arguably a high-point for him-- more than a third of Democrats thought he wasn’t fit to run. That number has gone up by 10% since then. It’s bonkers to think that nine months out from this election 30-odd percent of Democrats didn’t think their own presumptive nominee was fit to run! Now four months out, almost half don’t think he is!
It’s not fair that a great president, and decent man, like Joe Biden is going through this. But this isn’t about fair, it’s about having someone who is able to campaign, convince the public they’re completely fit for the office and turn out voters in very specific states.
I’m not as familiar with the Cuban Missile Crisis as I’d like to be. What was the “3 AM” moment? I mean, it’s not as if they woke him up in the middle of the night and said “Sir, the Soviets are moving missiles into Cuba and we need to know what we should do in the next five minutes”, right?
Trump’s issues have been apparent for at least the past couple of years. The difference is that when Trump’s brain locks up his mouth continue to spout vigorously, either vigorous gibberish or back to chestnuts that are burned into his remaining brain cells. He did not answer a single question rationally during the debate, but he did so with gusto. How many times did he fall back on “worst presidency ever” or similar when he had nothing else to say? He has a few catchphrases that he can utter using just his brain stem. He’ll be shouting them days after he has ceased all higher brain function.
Are you aware that most elections boards already have their ballots and supporting elections materials already prepared? All that would have to be redone. No small task.
All new ads, all new signs. All new social media campaigns.
And before you even get to that point, you’ve got to get Dems to agree on their new candidate and their new VP. And you have to figure out how to deal with the repercussions created by doing so. For example, removing Kamala Harris from the VP slot creates at least one serious problem: No tiebreaker in the Senate.
Then you’ve got to endure the squabble among Dems about who best to take that new VP slot on the ticket. No one has heard of Steve Bullock, Andy Beshear or Mitch Landrieu. I know who they are and so do you. But just as an exercise, go ask half a dozen people you know who don’t regularly follow politics and see how many of them know who they are.
If you pick Pete Buttigieg, you’ve got the gay issue. I love him, but there’s a serious anti-gay backlash going on currently in the country.
If you pick Mark Kelly, you create a new opportunity to lose a Senate seat in Arizona – which Dems can ill afford to lose.
Beto O’Rourke? Maybe, but I don’t think he excites that many people anymore.
But let’s say we can get lots of Dems to support one of these guys. Now ballots and supporting materials can be reprinted. Ads and signs can finally be produced.
How much time do you think all this has taken up before we can even get to that point?
You mean the less engaged voters who didn’t even watch the debate?
I think by the time Republicans are done smearing her, you’ll lose a greater percentage of them than if you’d stuck with Biden. Remember that Harris and Biden are within a couple of points of each other in a matchup against Trump, but only Biden has been enduring the endless “Biden sucks!” Republican efforts up to now. No way to know how Harris will endure it, but is it a chance you think is worth taking?
What if Harris is worse on the campaign trail than Biden? All we have to go on is 2020. That wasn’t so great.
Didn’t a president have a stroke in office (Wilson?) once?
What did they do then? Oh, I guess perhaps he was in his final term.
Anyway, there are scads of things they can do behind the curtain to make the Wizard look powerful.
For awhile.
Yeah, it’s just Weekend at Bernie’s in the Oval Office now. 
The Cabinet ran the country on his behalf, with his wife acting as his representative and deciding what was important enough to bother him with. You might call Edith Wilson our first female president.
My horseplayer’s instincts are kicking in here. Some races have a clear favourite, and some don’t. The latter are what we call “dartboards,” where the horses are all so evenly matched, that it becomes difficult to make an informed selection, and you might as well throw a dart at a dartboard. Regardless, all we have to go on is past performance. It’s your “what if” that makes me think that between Biden and Harris, we have a dartboard.
Biden has a solid record behind him, while Harris doesn’t. But Joe didn’t perform well in the debate; while Kamala, who doesn’t have the experience, but speaks clearly and knowledgeably on issues of the day, might come from behind (has the gas, finds an extra gear, as we say) in the last sixteenth. We don’t know. Both are capable, both can do the job. It’s a dartboard as of now.
The repubs definitely know how to fight & smear. I must say I’m hella surprised that a) The worst president ever has a chance at another term and b) that DeSantis is a distant #2 c) The dems have no #2 (not including Harris) and I reckon if they had to pick a VP it’d be some former General or military guy.
“Sleepy Joe” has a “bedtime” now while Trump is certainly hepped on some kind of steroid (has it been debunked that he wasn’t sniffing a lot (eta: of coke or speed) in 2020 2016 during the debates) and is going to be all over that. Heck, hep him on whatever goofballs he’s taking and have the press follow him around for a 24 hour day travelingto six states without stopping.
As I said before, Joe has a week or so to media-press (can he get hepped up and do six states - JK). Harris has to step up her game. The dems need to learn how to fight.
What do you think is happening while the Dems dither over who should run and who should be VP, etc., etc.? We’re literally ceding the field to Republicans for – at best – a few weeks. More likely a couple of months.
No campaigning. No outreach. No nothing, while Republicans roll over us.
So Dems will give Harris, what, part of August (if we’re lucky), September and October to mount a campaign?
This makes sense to you?
No. Dems should be firm and certain, or at least stop dithering. “Biden with Harris as VP.” Or “Harris with [name] as VP.” The latter might entail Dems telling Joe, “Listen you did a good job, but we think you might like to step aside.” It’s the dithering that makes this one a dartboard.
Look at the Republicans. Trump is their candidate; of that, there is no doubt. There is nobody waiting in the wings; at least, nobody who is willing to admit that they’d like to take Trump’s place. Privately, they might say so, and no doubt some RINOs think Trump is poison, but they put on a good face of being solidly behind Trump.
That’s not the Dems. It’s the dithering that is killing them. As you say, “No campaigning. No outreach. No nothing.” It comes down to Biden or Harris or somebody else. Meanwhile, Trump continues as if it was a foregone conclusion that he’ll run for President, and will brook no nonsense about anybody else taking his place. And that’s fine by Republicans.
The Dems should make up their mind soon, because time is getting tight. It is possible to mount an effective and winning campaign in six or seven weeks—Western parliamentary democracies (Canada, the UK, Australia, and others) do it all the time—but the Dems had better decide for sure soon. A last minute change won’t work for the Dems.
All we really need is 4 mos. Biden pulls one out and wins. Then he can take his victory lap and step down and Harris is the president.
And Bob’s your uncle.
I think we’ll know by next week. I can tell you that based on the outreach emails I’m getting from the Biden folks, he’s not dropping out.
ETA: Just to make it clear, I agree with you. It’s the dithering that’s doing Dems in.
I think he will do this, but only if he can ensure that Harris is able run for two full terms. If I remember right, that means he would serve for more than 2 years and then let her finish out his term. She can then run for her own two full terms.
(quoting myself)
Hell, the Democrats can start rumours / outrightly accuse Trump of doing drugs to stay alert. (I’m aware that “goofballs” were slang for barbituates) yet I can just hear Chief Wiggums saying "Trump is hepped up on goofballs everybody!) before Trump can do his six-state jaunt.
Attack, attack! Live boy, dead girl!
That’s too far ahead to worry about her two full terms.
She’ll get one by default and one on her own if she’s successful.
I bet she’d take that deal in a heartbeat.
It’s not what she wants that’s important. It’s what’s best for the country: Keep the office of the presidency out of Republican hands for as long as possible.
Good. And I do mean “good,” because I’d rather see Biden in the White House than I would see Trump.
But that has to be made clear. Yes, I know there will be a convention, but if Biden goes into it knowing that he’s already wrapped up the Democratic nomination, then it’s just a matter of going through the motions.
It’s time to stop dithering over Biden or Harris. Or, if you prefer, it’s time to fish or cut bait. The Dems need to decide now.