(duplicate)
How about the polls that compare voter support for Biden as compared with voter support for Senate candidates? In those battleground states holding Senate races, Biden does consistently worse than the Democratic Senate candidates. (Linked post showing the numbers and cited sources, below.)
If we want to disregard ‘Biden v Trump’ polls, I guess we can. But it would still be worth asking why Biden was doing so much better at this same time in 2020 against Trump than he is now. If polls are unreliable, shouldn’t the numbers from 2020 and 2024 be about the same? (In other words, if a bias is there in 2024, why wasn’t it there in 2020? It doesn’t appear that the tech involved, such as landlines versus cellphones, has changed in that time.)
2020 v 2024:
[post 418 in this thread–I may not be able to link due to the software:
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Senate v Presidential polling in battleground states:
I think Biden is getting the latest brunt of voter hatred of the gerontocracy in addition to concerns about his specific fitness. It used to be that politicians staying absolutely forever like Strom Thurmond were both rarer and often an object of ridicule and scorn. In the last eight years we’ve had Presidential elections of old Boomer woman vs old Boomer man, now two likely ones of old Boomer man vs Silent generation man, and continuing party leadership of Boomer or older. Ginsburg gave Trump a third Supreme Court nomination. Pelosi was the House Democratic leader for like 20+ years. Schumer and Reid before him. McConnell for the Republicans. Feinstein died in office. The first Boomer president is younger than either of the current candidates. And so on.
Even some of Biden’s accomplishments aren’t very much to brag about though he tried during the debate and afterwards. Getting the government to be able to negotiate drug prices for ten drugs for Medicare is nice enough for those that are affected but doesn’t do anything for those too young for Medicare.
Here in Ohio, I will vote Biden.
No more Libertarian votes.
They are when you are the minority party in the House and have a bare majority in the Senate. It’s more than other leaders managed even when they had majorities in both chambers.
These tell us Biden is probably, at the moment, behind the Senate Democratic candidates. It doesn’t tell us whether someone else would (or could) be doing better, and it doesn’t tell us much about whether Biden is actually behind or not.
I explained that and so have pundits- people expect miracles from the President. Quite a few young voters expressed discontent with the fact that somehow- magically- Biden has not ended the Gaza crisis- altho Joe has certainly tried. That the President has not brought back prices for their 4 years ago , or 10 Years ago or whatever level- which the President cant do- altho currently inflation is under control.
The GOP has been constantly pounding three Big Lies- That the economy is terrible 9it is actually quite good), the crime is out of control (Crime is at a low) and the the Border is Open (manifestly untrue)- and the Media has been pushing those lies also. The Public believes that the economy is bad- even tho it isnt. Now- How can Biden solve that? Mind Control? Media Control?
Oh, and note the few people that hope Michelle Obama will come out of seclusion and go for the Oval office- The Kremlin and the GOP know that also, and they have already started Fake news-
Give us more of this, Joe! That was pretty good stuff…
This is a stunner to me. I grant that there are scores of voters who don’t pay attention to politics and who vote for absurd reasons. But someone who has paid attention who says Biden had a meh first term…I don’t even know what to say.
He is easily, IMO, a top ten president in the modern era. For a doddering husk of a man, he sure got a lot of shit done.
To someone that isn’t a progressive, many of his accomplishments appear meh down to negative. And the swing voters that are potentially up for grabs are likely not all that progressive (except, perhaps, the ones that are single-issue when it comes to Israel/Palestine).
If Biden has any chance, it is only as a protest against this sort of thing.
Sure, some people may have admirable goals and ridiculous expectations.
Some more polling that indicates Biden’s support hasn’t changed since before the debate:
This included repeat subjects – i.e. the same voters asked before and after the debate who they supported. There was almost no net shift, but what little there was appeared to be actually towards Biden.
Being a little pedantic here, but … what’s your definition of “modern era”? There have only been 14 presidents since FDR, so calling Biden top 10 is faint praise indeed. Let’s see, he’s definitely ahead of Trump and Nixon, and Ford was barely president, so Joe’s for sure got those guys beat!
Joking aside, I also think he’s done a great job considering the state of affairs when he took office.
My example was the government finally being able to negotiate drug prices. Sounds great, right? But it’s only ten drugs. For Medicare. Which I’m sure is great for those who are affected but does nothing for me for close to the next three decades. And doesn’t help the perception that the government only cares about the Boomers and nobody younger.
Assuming you’re talking about the pro-Palestine crowd, I only mentioned them as an exception. Consider instead Biden’s student debt relief efforts. Progressives undoubtedly view it as a key success of the administration. Others–even people on the center-left–may view it as a handout to people that wasted their time on useless degrees and does nothing to actually solve the problem of expensive tuition. So it counts as a failure, not a success. Or maybe just a “meh”.
Your criticism may well be valid. But just because I cannot and will not ever vote for Trump doesn’t mean I would vote for either Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden, literally the two democrats running those years that I reacted to with visceral disgust.
Best I could do was vote in state and local races and leave the presidential ballot blank. And since Virginia wasn’t especially close either time I didn’t feel like that was a moral failing I couldn’t live with.
I wonder if asking Biden to step down is the wrong play. Better to have a convention soon and vote, inviting other candidates. Or forget the idea entirely and give Biden full throated support. I know which action I would prefer.
Most claims that polls should be ignored depend on supposed differences in the likelihood of Republicans versus Democrats to respond to pollsters, or similar R v D differences claimed by the arguer.
But the ‘Senate-candidate support versus Biden-support’ polls depend on none of these alleged poll-inaccuracies.
Therefore they create an argument about Biden’s lack of support among voters that’s harder to refute or ignore than the ‘Trump v Biden’ polls might be.
But they don’t tell us anything about whether another candidate would be doing better. It’s just a guess.