Okay, yes the debate was bad. But also- the debate did not move the polling needle. And when he dropped out, Biden was still polling better than any other Dem. Remember, he caught Covid and was apparently exhausted. Being president is a tough job. Running for President is a tough job. Doing both is really fucking hard.
Not to mention the NYT constant hit pieces on Biden due to the that they thought Biden wasnt giving them the special interview treatment they thought the NYT deserves.
Look, Biden was clearly past it whether it’s actual dementia or not. I called it and I’m right. He had to be pushed, hard, into withdrawing but he did the right thing. Now the contest isn’t between 2 geriatrics and Harris gets to play the age card if she choses and hopefully she can ride the current wave of positivity all the way to the White House.
Biden was polling badly compared to Trump. He needed a win to move it up. Biden did not get that. Basically, Biden was on the floor of polling. There are a lot of people who would vote for a turnip before Trump so there was only so low Biden could go and I think he was close to that. That is not what you want going in to an election.
Biden’s follow-on performances also did nothing to help him rise in the polls.
The writing was on the wall.
Not really. The same “past it” Biden was busily negotiating a successful and complex prisoner exchange at the time he dropped out. He’s still the president and still doing a much better job than I expected.
So now it’s Trump v. Harris and the GOP is crying foul because, after years of saying Biden was too old and too incompetent and them probably having piles of files on things with which to attack Biden the Democrats pulled the rug out from under their plans. I am genuinely chuckling over that.
I’m not convinced Biden is incompetent. He is, unquestionably, old. He may have some cognitive decline - I’m not a doctor. The doctor in my family, whose official specialty is “geriatrics” i.e. “old people doctor” thinks she sees some signs of it but she is not his doctor and hasn’t examined him personally and would tell you exactly that if she were here. Right now he’s still competent to handle his affairs (and the affairs of the country) but where will he be in another four years? Or just another two? He’s starting to look physically frail, and that’s a problem for a job that is stressful, requires international travel at times, and can have very irregular hours. I’m as concerned about Biden’s physical state (even if he can still ride a bike) as much as for his mental. Having a PotUS die in office, or become incapacitated, would be a bad thing for the nation and if it can be avoided it should be. I think Biden bowing out while he is still upright and capable is the best thing for the nation and for his own legacy.
Meanwhile, Trump is flailing on how to attack Harris. If the stakes weren’t so damn high it would be funny, but it isn’t.
If the election were tomorrow, I’d be very confident of a Democrat president, and maybe a clean sweep.
RW media is trying very desperate attacks on Harris’ gender and race, and I think a lot of that turns people off. People who in polls might have said “unsure” or even Republican, that on the day either vote D or no-one.
But, there’s plenty of time for RW media to figure something out. And there’ll be a running mate they can potentially launch attacks on.
Correct. We still have (checks calendar) a couple months to go until the one and only poll that truly matters, the one on November 5 this year.
If the election has been held on July 23rd then maybe Trump would have ridden a wave of sympathy into office. If the election were to be held August 6th maybe Harris would win with ease. But neither of those two will happen.
In the space of two weeks we’ve had an attempted assassination of one candidate and one of the two major political parties change their candidate. Who knows what will happen between now and November?
Within normal deviation, 1 or 2 % usually…
He is not incompetent. He is very likely exhausted. Covid will do that, not to mention the job. And age, too, to be honest. He wasnt polling good, meaning campaigning would mean a lot of energy.
For a President who got us through covid, kept the economy from cratering and actually growing, kept US troops out of Ukraine while helping defend Europe from a nakedly aggressive Putin, and defends the rule of law over self-serving naked power grab, Biden’s numbers were abysmal. He should have been smashing Trump, but he was lagging. And he would need to be leading Trump to have a real shot against the EC map.
Thankfully, he was finally convinced that he no longer had a path to victory. Because it took actual numbers, not impressions and feelings and persuasive requests from trusted allies.
At the time of election, sure. But the election is not held in July.
I’m afraid that, when it comes to polling well and getting (re)elected, charisma and public perception count for more than competence and actual accomplishments.
ISTM Trump was continuously ahead in the polls (with an anomalous blip here and there) . The picture below is from 538:
What was the standard deviation in those polls?
I do not see that information and I am not sure why it matters here. If Trump wins by one vote the standard deviation does not matter. Biden was the one with a hill to climb and he was not climbing it…at all.