As long as we’re on the subject; how do Scientologists vote? D or R?
Throw Duckworth in too. Whitmer’s still in the short list?
I’d be curious how posters here would each of them would rank them as viewed through different lenses, and what the rank importance of those lenses should be:
- Least likely to drive opposition base turnout up
- Potential to increase turnout over current likelihood of various segments of the D base
- Ability to help close the sale with potential swing voters, be they Obama-Trump ones, Romney-Clinton ones, or third party and stay home choosers
- Otherwise specific impact in key battleground states
- Best able to step in and be President at a moment’s notice
- Best able to be a useful member of an administrative team
My take is that so long as a candidate does not dramatically FAIL by the first four lenses, the last two matter most.
Warren is the closest to failing on items one and three but maybe makes it up with slight over baseline turnout of the progressive segment of the D base. Of the others I don’t see any huge advantage to one over the other.
My own WAG for the remaining two is Rice, Duckworth, Bass, Harris, Whitmer, Warren. I just don’t see Warren and Biden working well together, and Warren would shift courses too dramatically mid term if something happened to Biden. Rice has the in West Wing experience to be useful and ready, the next two Congressional creds, and the next gubernatorial executive experience. Rice though has the academic smarts and brains that frankly Biden lacks and needs to have at his side.
Right, they won’t be voting for the Democrat, but I believe this is a really good example of the first item on DSeid’s list above. If Bass is perceived as being “weak” on the Castro regime, there’s a reason for otherwise apathetic Cubans in Florida to turn out and vote for Trump–even if they might have been inclined to stay home. You don’t want to give folks who aren’t on your side a reason to vote, and I worry that Bass’s “coziness with Cuba” might do exactly that.
Whether it should is a different question. And whether the “coziness” rises to that level is a different question as well. But it would be remiss of Biden not to at least take that into account, given the importance of FL in the election and what I at least perceive as the need for a landslide.
DSeid, Ulf,
We are long overdue for normalizing relations with Cuba especially considering we have managed it in Vietnam and China. Trump is a greater atrocity than nationalizing Bacardi. It’s a whining point but not a major factor. Castro is very old news.
On all of your points, I’d favor Duckworth but she seems to have faded in the media. Otherwise the best choice is Warren. She is the strongest campaigner. Also, Warren is politically astute. She knows the rules. She won’t become President by upstaging her boss. It is somewhat like the Obama/Clinton team. Also it looks good for Biden if he can make it work.
Chinese proverb: “A swift horse requires a skilled rider”
That being said I still believe Biden will wimp out and pick Bass or Rice.
Not sure how those choices would be “wimping out.”
I like Warren, and I voted for her in the primary. I do not want her on the Biden ticket though. I want someone younger and with broader appeal. While Warren’s politics match mine to a large degree, she is far to the left of the voters Biden needs in the upper Midwest and Florida.
But, the voters he will ‘lose’ in Florida he can’t get anyway. The real question is whether he has to have a black VP to get the black vote? I think not. Warren has performed for the consumer and that is the broad base of voters, regardless of ethnicity.
I also don’t think he needs a Black VP to get the Black vote. I don’t think that’s the “real question,” though. He needs someone who can’t be painted as a socialist.
I’m exactly in the same boat as you - even donated to Warren and bought merch. Don’t want her on the ticket. Right now Biden occupies an interesting lane. He’s seen as very moderate, but has a very progressive platform. Nominating Warren blows up that narrative. Suddenly he seems “in hock to the ‘far left’”. And even though Harris has a voting record that comes close to Warren’s, she doesn’t have the same baggage.
And Warren is just too old. Does nothing to blunt the criticism of Biden’s age.
So a moderate Republican, then? 
Because that’s the only way to not be painted a socialist by GOP pols and conservative media.
I see your point. But moderate Democrat should do it. Rice or Duckworth, for example, are hardly moderate Republicans but could not credibly be painted as socialists. The right will paint them as Chairman Mao, perhaps, but it won’t gain traction (hopefully). Warren is a true progressive and has many great progressive ideas. As I stated, she was my first choice in the primary. She is my last choice for VP, however.
But the question is turnout. Is the Cuban-American vote depressed compared to previous election cycles? Do they take personally the anti-Latino sentiment amongst many in the GOP leadership, especially since while they aren’t from a Mexican country and aren’t illegal immigrants, the occupant of the White House knows so little about Latin America that he might not know the difference?
If some of them won’t turn out to vote due to this, having someone who is perceived, rightly or wrongly, to be pro-Castro might make some of them get over this.
Indeed. The GOP is trying to portray Biden as a socialist and people are laughing it off. It’s Joe Biden after all. They may try with Harris or Rice or Duckworth or Demings but it likely won’t go far. It may actually stick a bit with Warren.
I still favor Bass, but the “Do no harm” theory really favors Duckworth IMO. I think Duckworth is about as close as one can get to an un-attackable politician. But then, Kaine (whom I like and think was a good governor and a good Senator) was also a “do no harm” running mate, and he didn’t help the 2016 ticket at all.
Me three, and I will add something else: if she stays in the Senate for a couple more terms, she can do more good for her causes than she could with 4 or 8 years as VP.
My top three right now:
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Demings. It seems to me like Biden not picking an African-American woman at this point will make headlines, negative headlines, and has the potential to be a drag on his campaign. Too much of a negative, if it catches enough fire, may depress AA voters, or at least give the opposition an attack point for ads within the AA community. I think Demings, of the AA women on the shortlist, does the least harm. Yes, she’s a former cop, but I just don’t see that turning off many voters that may be on the fence about getting out to vote. And her being an ex-cop may actually shore up suburban voters, maybe even some Republicans, plus it could really help win a significant number of votes in the I-9 corridor, and ultimately Florida. I think her role as an impeachment manager is also a feather in her cap.
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Michelle Lujan Grisham. If he’s not going to pick an AA woman as his running mate, a Latina would be great to fire up another large Democratic voting bloc. It would likely lock up Arizona for the Dems, and may even move Texas further into the blue. She’s got experience in public health, which wouldn’t hurt to have on the ticket right now. Plus, she’s got Congressional and gubernatorial experience.
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Tammy Duckworth. She’s at the bottom of my list-of-3 because I fear picking her would launch those headlines about not picking an AA woman at a time when the stars just seem to be lining up for AA women politically. That being said, she is a suburban mom with young kids, a war hero, disabled vet, Senator, and someone who knows how to really throw a punch against Trump. Plus, she just fits into what Biden really seems to value: great personal narrative, American hero status, moderate midwestern policies. And hey, things didn’t turn out so bad when he was paired up with the junior Senator from Illinois with roots in Hawaii before.
Another one who preferred Warren at the top of ticket, but don’t want her sharing one at the bottom with Biden. Two 70+ candidates is one too many.
Campaign strategy aside I like Rice because I like policy wonks and she is as wonky as they get. The Benghazi nonsense may be an anchor and never having run for office it is hard to tell if she’ll be a drag as a campaigner or not. A lot of policy wonks suck under the bright lights. She is probably not the safest pick.
If he doesn’t go with a black woman, black women are not going to be enthusiatic enough to turn out and he will suffer for it. And although Trump would seem to be a sufficient motivation to turn out the Dem vote, we gotta remember that black women (black folks in general) will also have plenty of valid reasons not to turn out. You need a lot of courage to stand in long lines in the middle of a pandemic, especially if you are juggling childcare and work obligations on top of that. If Biden doesn’t go with a black woman VP despite black women being the most dependable Dem demographic right now? Oh, both he and the party will have hell to pay. You better believe he and the party leadership have been put on notice about that.
That’s why I’m thinking if he doesn’t go with a black woman, he better go hard and go with Warren. It will not be pretty if he tries to go “white and safe”. Black and safe is OK. Folks are tired of white and safe, though. I understand the desire to not give the GOP their own talking points, but the GOP is sickening right now. They will have their sickening talking points no matter who Biden goes with. But folks in the trenches want some pay back for all their blood, sweat, and tears. Going with “safe” is saying “fuck you” to those folks.
Biden VP short-listers jockey as search enters final round in secrecy: Biden VP short-listers jockey as search enters final round in secrecy - POLITICO
I’d be interested in your thoughts on a Latinx or other non-white candidate, like Michelle Lujan Grisham or Tammy Duckworth. Do you think a POC candidate like that could motivate black women to vote for the ticket or not?
For someone with the name-recognition of Duckworth, yes. A candidate like AOC, definitely. Both Duckworth and AOC have demonstrated they aren’t afraid to clap back at their political opponents and go hard. That is the kind of stuff folks want to see. I don’t know Grisham, so I’m not sure.