kilgour has said that unless more money & canadian troops are gonna be sent to sudan, he’s voting against the budget. sudan has refused to accept canadian troops, and no more money has yet been announced for the aid package.
How do you figure? The Liberals are polling well in Ontario; the budget guarantees absurd handouts for her riding, and there’s no chance at all of an election before 2006 if it doesn’t happen now, so I don’t understand the “within six months bit,” and I’d lay 70-30 odds Martin will renege on his promise to hold an election in 2006. She’ll get enormous support from the Liberal Party to retain the seat in 2006 (probably with stolen money, of course.) She was at risk as a CONSERVATIVE. As a Liberal I’d say she actually has a better chance.
It was opportunism, pure and simple. If it wasn’t, would you mind explaining the amazing coincidence that she made this decision at the very same time Paul Martin was looking for a tall blonde Cabinet minister who sat on the boards of her Daddy’s companies?
Actually, I’ll give 10 to 1 odds Martin reneges on the 2006 election promise.
How do you figure that there won’t be an election until 2006? The one after the report of the Gomery Inquiry in the fall is vapourware? If so, please explain.
(Not that I’d mind on a personal level; I would much rather spend October enjoying the eclipse and Nuestra Señora del Pilar in Zaragoza than out on the hustings.)
Oh, and I could well be wrong about the whole thing. It’s just always seemed to me that the voters are hard on ship-jumpers – I mean, you and the other good people in this thread can’t be the only ones this will make her unpopular with.
Will the opposition cease hostilities during the Queen’s visit? Or will it press ahead, with the possibility that HM will just have to return to the UK in order to avoid being caught up in the aftermath if the government falls?
If I understand it constitutionally, HRM will not have to do a thing. Even if the non confidence motion passes it is still the Governor General who disolves Parliment.
As for our Beloved Belinda… My guess is come a new election she will be parachuted into a “safe” riding or if Martin Fears she’s after his Job (likely) he may leave her to swing in the wind now that she’s served her purpose.
Though it might be nice to see one power hungry oppurtunist knock off another with the same stab in the back tactics.
God I hate the Liberals!
Seems to me that if you’re going to throw around the “crass opportunist” label, Harper should be getting the biggest smattering from that brush. His behavior throughout this whole stupid mess has had nothing to do with what’s best for Canada, and everything to do with what’s best for him and his party.
That makes it easier for me to believe Stronach when she says that she’s trying to do what is best for Canada. Also, her insisting on a role in implementing the recommendations of the Gomery inquiry indicates either she is uncomfortable with the liberal mess here, or wants to appear that way.
The upshot is that she took a big risk jumping ship. It may pay off good time, or it may end her career. In my experience, crass opportunists don’t take career-ending risks. However, if you’ve just been betrayed, you’re welcome to all the sour grapes you can stomach.
It’s not that bad. This sort of thing is pretty common, depending on the type of government.
My biggest fear about my own favorite party, the Republicans (Yes, I know you all think they’re the spawn of Satan and Bush is Hitler reincarnated - I don’t care) could go down the same route. Of course, there it’s partly because the libertarians aren’t really pushing for anything positive. They haven’t realized they need to do that.
As I understand it, this isn’t true; if the government falls while The Queen is in Canada, it’s up to her to dissolve Parliament. Again IIRC, the Governor General has no power while The Queen is in Canada.
On another note, here’s an interesting point:
[url=“http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20050518.wstronach0518/BNStory/National/”]
More data:
So the Tories didn’t seem to be very serious about keeping her around, methinks.
Well considering these comments are from Provincial Progressive Conservatives and not Federal Conservatives I don’t put much credence in them except that there are few big mouthed pin heads out there. As far as the shouting match… Stronach herself has not confirmed that rumour.
I can’t for a second believe she is doing this on principle.
If she were she’d either vote against her party and get tossed or she would run as an independent like others have. I’d call that a brave move. But instead she gets a tasty carrot dangled before her that wasn’t being offered by Harper and she dashes to the other Party.
She is taking a risk, but not that big. As I said they’ll pop her into a safe riding so she can remain a Liberal.
And really what is it the Liberals have shown her that make them more in line with her beliefs. Their ethical Record? Their fiscal conservativism?
Seems to me the Party has been spending willy nilly trying to save its skin. This ill advised Childcare program, the NDP 4.6 billion buy out, and the cash handed to Ontario aren’t exactly the ideals of fiscal responsibility
She betrayed her riding and all those everyday folk who worked on her campaign. She didn’t seem to feel it was aginst her principle to walk out on those people that hit the streets and knocked on doors for her to get her into office in the first place.
Fah…
And if she was so concerned about the direction the Conservatives were taking, why did she vote to bring down the Liberal government last week?
Careful, Yank. We’re educated up here.
Though I almost certainly would have voted Democrat in every presidential election since my 18th birthday, assuming I was a U.S. citizen, I find the demonization of the Reps and Bush to be childish in the extreme.
The inquiry is not supposed to release its report until at LEAST mid-November - and this being a government function, it being released on time is extremely optimistic - and you can’t hold an election at Christmas. When do you think it could be called?
As I said, I don’t believe he’ll stick to that promise anyway; they will, if they survive this, just plod right along as if he never said he’d call an election. Come the report, they will rationalize not calling an election by saying that they have the confidence of Parliament and they’re acting on the recommendations of the report. I’ll bet good money on it.
Depends. If the report doesn’t come down hard on Martin and current govt members, and the polls look favourable, I think he’d call an election in a heartbeat to try to get a majority again. I really doubt he’s very happy having to get his policies approved by Layton. And if the report does come down hard on Martin and/or current govt members, he may well not have a choice. Layton might hold him to the commitment, and so might a handful of Liberal backbenchers. Being a vote or two away from losing a confidence motion is not a stable situation. And, remember, MPs resign and die, and there are byelections. The Labrador seat seems likely to be held by the Liberals, which gives them a little extra cushion once that byelection is held, but there will be others.
“Could”?
Did you note the comment about Stronach being put in charge of ‘implementing the recommendations of the inquiry?’ That’s already sounding like a change from, “We’ll call an election as soon as the report is released.”
If anyone’s interested, I’ve posted a detailed summary of what’s been happening in Ottawa over in MPSIMS - seemed more appropriate there, somehow. 
Well, it all rests on Chuck Cadman’s shoulders, now. Kilgour and Parrish have both announced how they’re voting. There’s a slim possibility two Atlantic Tories might break ranks and vote for the budget (there’s a lot of pressure on them to do so), but most likely it’s down to Cadman.
The Liberals + NDP + Parrish = 152.
The Conservatives + Bloc + Kilgour = 153
Cadman = 1
In the event of a tie, the Speaker will vote, and is almost guaranteed to support the Liberals.
Geez, it’s like a movie plot – one vote by an independant will make or cast down kings.
I thought the Tories had decided to support the budget, but were going to try and kill the second bill today, over $4.something billion promised to NDP platform causes.