Last weekend a friend told me that some less-conservative British scientists had released a report stating that both ice caps could melt (or at least slide into the sea) by 2040. He acknowledged the Stern Report, but stated that this was from another report issued later.
Since I had read elsewhere that melting all the polar ice would raise world sea levels by 100 metres, this is of some concern (the fishies might well be swimming past my apartment–Lake Ontario is only 76 metres above sea level). Simply setting the ice afloat would raise the sea level by the same amount.
I’m not sure I believe him. Can anyone point me to the source of this prediction?
There’s something along these lines in An Inconvenient Truth, and at one point in the movie Gore notes that every assertion he makes throughout the film (or some similar claim) is uncontested by everyone on both sides of the global warming issue. So I can’t help you with a cite, but if you watch the film you might be able to pick up where he obtained the data behind his claim.
I think your friend may have become confused by reading recent articles such as this one: Arctic may lose all ice by 2040
It mentions computer models which predict an ice free arctic ocean by 2040, but then goes on to talk about surging Antarctic glaciers.
The year 2040 is right up there in big letters at the top of the article, but the story doesn’t say the same date applies for both poles.
And the melting arctic ice won’t have any affect on sea levels since it is already floating. Only melting continental glaciers will have an affect on sea levels.
One consequence (if the artic ice melts), is that the famed NW Passage should be able to support a large ship traffic. So, are any ships using this route? or is the sea ice still too dangerous for commericail shipping?
I work for a meteorology company that specializes in assisting ocean vessels on their voyages. There are some ships that sail up north of Canada and north of Russia, but pretty much only in the summer/fall, when ice is at it’s minimum, but even then, they have to be able to navigate the ice that is still there. Here is a great article regarding the shipping potential of the Northwest Passage.
