Breaking: Ukrainian 737 Crashes in Iran. Possibly Shot Down. 160-180 Dead.

Pprune Discussion suggests it was shot down, like MH117, with this photo showing possible surface to air missile warhead fragmentation damage:

Almost certain it was shot down by nervous Iranian ADA. Way too much of a coincidence.

Okay, I’ll bite. Why would Iranian ADA shoot down a passenger jet LEAVING Tehran? I can understand nervousness about incoming flights, but departing? Not that fuckups don’t happen and yes, they’re likely more common than are deliberately evil acts. But the passenger list might be interesting. Was someone targeted by domestic or foreign foes?

Followup from Interfax-Ukraine via Kyiv Post.

Technical error. Bad day to be a Boeing stockholder. Worse to have been on the plane, of course.

Some OSINT types are saying that Iranian sources are saying that the plane was told to take off ASAP and that some pre flight procedures might have been skipped.

Doesn’t “technical error” require weeks of study/investigation to conclude?

I believe that’s when determining if it was pilot error or equipment malfunction. I would expect it to be easier to see if the crash was caused by something internal vs. external.

What is OSINT?

Open Source Intelligence.

While speculation that it was shot down can begin before the wreckage is professionally examined (see the OP).

I wonder if Boeing reps will be allowed into Iran to help with the investigation, since it was a Boeing aircraft. Maybe Boeing experts from Europe, doubt any US folks would be admitted.

Right now we no nothing for certain. Time will tell.

Slightly curious (my bolding):

Seems like a lot of Canadians for one Ukrainian flight. Evacuating Tehran by any available transport, I guess.

Only if you are doing a proper investigation.

Sure, but that won’t stop markets/traders reacting immediately to what may (or may not) be another Boeing problem. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Boeing shares [del]crash[/del] [del]dive[/del] [del]fall[/del] er, decrease in value today, and if/when an official investigation is published many weeks/months from now, they stay at a similar level if Boeing hardware is confirmed as the problem (because this is already priced in), or rise sharply if not. This is a highly simplified model, of course.

Ukraine has deleted their post about mechanical failure -

Perhaps, but more likely Iranian-Canadian students on their way back to universities after spending the holiday with their families.

I was ready to discount the possibility of attack on the plane until I saw the pictures that appear to show fragmentation damage on almost every picture of the plane’s fuselage.

Weird that an official source would be so quick to claim “engine failure” as the cause, mere hours after the accident. Seems they are already rolling back on that statement.

From the Globe and Mail:

The reference in post #14 said it was a 3-year old 737-800. NOT the same as the two crashed Boeing MAX 8 aircraft, but people may jump (nay, leap) to that conclusion. Good time to pick up Boeing stock later in the day, if you have the sensibilities of a stockbroker.

Systems like the CRAM that we use track and fire on threats that are moving too fast for a human to act on. I suspect Iran activated whatever system they had and one guy put his battery on active instead of passive mode. Or something similar. I believe in coincidences but a plane going down just as Iran starts offensive operations plus a not very subtle coverup?

Whatever part of the checklist keeps the plane from plummeting to earth in a fireball should be written in red and circled. “DO NOT SKIP.”

I am shocked that the first thing out of their lips isn’t “The US did this!”

It wouldn’t be hard to believe either. US bases were getting rained on by missiles, us firing at things that are flying is not beyond belief. Besides, it is not like something like that has never happened before…