And I don’t think it’s just those 117 against the deal.
As an American, I’m confused. The idea that QE2 should have refused Royal Assent on something that was obviously a bad idea* - even at the time is met with universal British derision so what is Parliament supposed to do now? Does a majority of the UK even want Brexit anymore?
*Either the Brexit itself or the bill implementing it.
That’s unclear. Every poll since early this year shows a plurality who would vote to remain if there was another referendum, but most have that plurality under the 48% that remain actually got in the referendum. Likewise, in polls asking whether it’s right or wrong for the UK to leave the EU, there’s a plurality for wrong, but hovering right around or below 48%…
The same thing that it was supposed to do before the Conservative party had their meaningless and irrelevant little conniption - make a choice between:
(a) exiting the EU on the term of the deal agreed bewteen the UK government and the EU;
(b) exiting the EU without any deal at all; and
(c) calling off Brexit.
Realistically, there are no other options. Option (b) above is the default option; refusing to make a choice is the same thing as actively choosing option (b).
Nobody knows for sure, although a great many people have a high degree of certitude on the question.
Also, note that the question is not a simple binary; there may for example be a class of people who want Brexit, but only if it’s on the terms of the agreed deal; they don’t want a no-deal Brexit. Conversely, there may be a class of people who want a no-deal Brexit, but don’t want Brexit on the terms of the deal. And there may be a class of people who want Brexit, but not a no-deal Brexit or a Brexit on the terms of the agreed deal; they want Brexit on a different set of terms which are not in fact on offer.
There are three other options:
New referendum
Withdrawing the A50 letter
New General Election
If there is a new referendum and the public votes Remain then Parliament will implement it.
While withdrawing the A50 letter would work, Parliament is too cowardly.
A new general election would probably continue a big mess. It’s really too late to negotiate a fundamentally different deal and Labour’s proposal seems to be another “cake and eat it” type deal the EU rejects.
Nice.
Anyone see Rolls-Royce is leaving Derby and moving to Germany?
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
You think they want more direct competition with Porsche?
Agreed, I think the Withdrawal Agreement is dead (and not forgetting that even if it is approved it needs to be converted into a Bill (amendable!) and passed through both Houses before the end of March). Not gonna happen.
So what now? I genuinely don’t know, and fear that the default no-deal exit looms 
Do RR and Porsche even market to the same demographic? A Porsche is a car that a rich person drives, and a Rolls is a car that a REALLY rich person’s chauffeur drives.
It doesn’t matter what Parliament will ‘tolerate’, it matters what Parliament will do.
No Deal, RFW though it may be, is the default option. Britain will exit the EU with No Deal unless:
a) We have a ratified deal;
b) i) We ask for an A50 extension AND ii) the EU grant an A50 extension
c) We withdraw A50.
The prospects for a) are … not great. May is trying to get some figleaf text about the backstop added in. The most she can possibly get is some sort of “best endeavours”; “as short a time as possible” vaguery; the EU won’t agree to anything that actually puts a limit on the backstop. The task of threading the needle by getting text hard enough for Parliament (esp. the DUP) but soft enough for the EU is not an easy one, and would appear to call for more diplomatic nous than she’s displayed so far. It might happen, but it won’t take many rebels to blow it up even if she can get the DUP onside, and we’ve got a pretty good idea of how weak her grip on the party is at the moment. She will likely need Labour votes; either whipped or rebellious. Labour’s are unlikely to back the deal as a party, so the question is are there more Labour MPs who would vote with the Tories to prevent No Deal, than there are Tory MPs who would vote against their party to prevent the Deal? May pulled the vote on the Deal because she expected to lose by triple figures, so I’m guessing not.
There’s a UK deadline of 21st January for the government to have deal agreed. If not, the government has to make a statement to the House within 5 days on what it plans to do now. The House will get to amend this statement. That is, Parliament will be able to dictate policy to the government. This will be where options b) and c) come in.
c) won’t happen on 26th Jan. May is not about to revoke A50. Neither will Parliament vote for it. That leaves b), an extension. Parliament and/or the government may well decide to ask for an extension, but that’s only half the battle. The EU would have to agree to it. And there’s no point in agreeing to it unless there’s a realistic prospect of something changing. So either Parliament forces the government to accept a new negotiating position (accepting Freedom of Movement would be the best way of breaking the deadlock, but is unlikely to pass Parliament; there may be other options); or there’s a general election; or there’s a second referendum.
Parliament would have to vote for a GE. Parliament would have to legislate for a referendum. Both will take time to organise and carry out. There are now only two months to Brexit. Parliament should only vote for either option if they’ll definitely get the extension for doing so. The EU should only offer an extension if they’re certain Parliament will be calling an election or a referendum. It’s do-able, but a bit tricky. In any case, it will only be an extension of a couple of months, so as not get into absurdities over EU Parliament elections being held in the UK. So most of the time gained will be eaten up in whatever electoral process justified the extension in the first place.
Let’s say there’s an election. We had one last year. It was meant to produce a mandate for some kind of Brexit, either Tory or Labour. It produced neither. The stakes are higher now and more people have an idea of what Brexit means, but it’s still a gamble to think that there’s going to be a decisive result. If either party gets in to power with a majority of less than 20, then what was the point? Doubly so if it’s a hung parliament again. And even so, a new deal on whatever basis will have to be agreed and ratified in double-quick time.
A referendum is likewise not guaranteed to produce a clear result. A 52/48 result, or a 35/33/32 result is going to cause more problems than it solves. Would a government really pull A50 on those numbers? It’s a grim prospect all round.
So, horribly, No Deal Brexit seems to me the most likely outcome. Not because anyone wants it, but because avoiding it will appear to be too difficult and too risky for either party to bite the bullet.
And having put that down in black and white, I’m now off to alternatively scream and sob for a bit.
Just out of curiosity - what portion of MPs do you reckon actually want any kind of Brexit? Like, could you, in theory, bang together a “For the sake of sanity” coalition comprising 50%+1 of the legislature demanding that we stop this madness, take the easy out the EU offered and withdraw Article 50, and not make such a world-shattering and phenomenally stupid and harmful decision on the basis of a freakin’ 2% margin?
Am I a horrible person for basically eating popcorn like there is no tomorrow while watching the whole drama unfold?
I must say that the mood in the international organization where I work in The Hague (at the level of my coworkers) is boiling down to, basically, “the sooner the UK is gone the better; it has been nothing but a millstone around our collective necks. Let it commit suicide and good riddance to bad rubbish”.
A majority of MPs are Remainers, on the basis that that’s what they campaigned for/said they voted for in the referendum. Labour are almost all Remain - of their c.230 MPs there are maybe a dozen who are Labour Leave. Tories are more split, but even so something over half (c. 170) are Remain. SNP, the third biggest party, are Remain, so are the Lib-Dems (largely) and Green(s). So in theory there is a very strong pro-Remain majority and if they could co-ordinate they could unite behind a “Withdraw A50 now” motion.
If.
The actual number of MPs who are prepared to do this is vastly smaller. Some represent Leave-voting constituencies, some believe they have to respect the referendum, some don’t want to disobey the leadership. There will also be reluctance to co-operate across party lines. And of course, the big fear is what if you risk all the above and fail? It’s fine to jump in the water if everyone else is going to. But if they’re not, you’d rather stay safe and dry.
If Labour leadership announced that this was their plan, it would have a good chance of working. They’re the biggest chunk of Remain MPs, and they’d definitely bring along SNP and most of the Lib Dems. They’d need 30 or so Tories, but party loyalty is thin right now and as you say, it’s something of a crisis. But they aren’t going to do that. Labour’s strategic view of Brexit is that it gives them a great chance to force and win a general election. This requires that they don’t do anything too radical, and especially that the Tories are left holding sole responsibility for the final outcome. Doing anything as direct and radical as cancelling Brexit blows that out of the water, and leaves them campaigning as the party who overrode the will of the people.
So, even though that odd roaring sound is getting louder, on towards the waterfall we shall continue to drift.
I have always felt that its #CancelBrexit or #CancelTheUnitedKingdom.
The amount of shyt you have seen is sod all compared to what will happen in case of a non deal Brexit.
Can you imagine having to go to the Embassy to get a visa for visiting Europe…
A super hard Irish border.
Each of the regions getting upset and that shooting the UK constitutional settlements to hell.
This was a silly snipe at Rolls Royce, but yeah, good point. 
Man… fuck everything.
All the above said, I log on to Twitter to see that Labour MP Mike Gapes (no big fan of his party’s leadership) has just said that in the event of No Deal looming and no second referendum, then Parliament should withdraw A50 unilaterally. So the idea is out there now.
If it comes to pass, it will be absolute cliff edge stuff. Order your popcorn in now, JoseB.
What is the most significant British political group/party/individual pushing for canceling Brexit, and do they have a plan? Is there any feasible series of events that could result in no Brexit?
Plan? Looks like we know that one.
But yeah, what is the end game, and how does it play out? If a majority of the people as well as Parliament now want Remain, and May can’t get anything more out of the EU (which appears to be the case), doesn’t that force either new elections or a new referendum or both in the near future? Why wouldn’t May ask for (and get) an extension of the Leave date until after that happens, the result being an end to this mess? Surely there can’t be more than a handful who actually want a hard Leave in March, with all the chaos and economic crises that would entail, even though that’s where the current situation is heading.
It seems to me the best course would be for Parliament to cancel Brexit and immediately call new elections, saying “if you really want Brexit, vote for someone who has an acceptable plan for it”. The problem is it requires a Parliament that puts country before party and apparently none of the parties are willing to do that.