(Mods - didn’t see a new thread - feel free to combine if I missed it - also - nasty typo in title since autocorrect shifted to whose)
So it appears #Brexit is happening:
Will France remain?
How about the Scandinavian nations?
Will we be left with a Euro driven by the Germans after this? - Yes, I know the Brits were not in the Euro - more thinking if France exits (Frexit?)
The pound is down right now in trading, not looking forward to the US markets in the morning.
It’s a non-binding referendum. GB hasn’t left yet.
As a filthy colonial, I have to say it:
Texit!
Since Scotland voted strongly to “Remain”(I think something like 60% voted “remain”) will this spur them to have another referendum on seceding from the UK and then rejoining the EU?
Perhaps some of our British posters could chime in.
I have said on the other thread that the threat of Scottish independence is greatly exaggerated(for now). Scotland will not go independent unless, or until, oil reaches a far higher price than it currently is. This vote certainly hasn’t helped matters on independence, but the chances are still relatively low imo.
No government could afford to ignore the result, it would be instantly toppled.
Didn’t Scotland nearly go independent a few years ago?
My Brit friends living in Scotland seem all but certain that Scotland will leave if Britain leaves the union.
I think Denmark might be one of the next.
The process to leave would take at least 2 years, in any case. And in the end it will be needed to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty (although some individuals in the “Leave” side say that it wouldn’t be necessary to do so, but they seem not to realise what they themselves are saying).
Basically, and realistically, there are only 3 options from now on:
(1) The UK goes into the EFTA (European Free Trade Association) and ends up in a situation similar to that of Norway.
(2) The UK reaches an agreement with the EU similar to the one that the EU has with Canada.
(3) Say “fuck it”, go out completely and revert to basic WTO (World Trade Organization) rules when it comes to commerce.
With this in mind, the situation in each of those three options would be as follows:
(1) For the British economy the best option would be to become an EFTA member. That would help prevent a definite downturn. HOWEVER… Becoming a member of the EFTA would imply: (a) Becoming part of the Schengen zone, thus eliminating border controls with the rest of the Schengen countries and (b) Keep applying EU rules to a big bunch of stuff, but now without neither a voice nor a vote on how those rules are made, and no way to influence the decision process.
(2) A Canada-style agreement would not apply to a bunch of economic sectors, among them (and one of the most important) the financial sector. This would greatly affect the City of London as a financial center, because it would severely curtail its ability to do trades with the rest of Europe. The economic consequences would be serious, even without taking into account the other economic sectors that would be affected by this situation.
(3) A reversion to WTO rules would be the worst possible situation. Re-introduction of customs tariffs with what is one of the biggest markets in the world, re-introduction of separate certification for a lot of industrial products, re-introduction of financial and banking hurdles for international money movements. The headaches involved would be nothing to sneeze at, and it would have a seriously chilling effect on the British economy.
I can perfectly imagine that, in future negotiations between the UK and the EU, the latter will offer the UK a choice between (1) and (3) above.
Summing up, the UK will end up having to choose between (a) keeping its economy running smoothly but opening its borders, keep obeying EU rules and losing all influence on how those rules are made, and (b) keep its holy borders protected, “regain control over their destinies”, and deeply fuck up their own economy.
That’s another thing. I find it ironic that the people who rallied to the “defense of their own country” may end up being instrumental in having their own country blow apart at the seams.
As to Denmark, it has a few things that make it not so certain that it might end up getting out. First, it is a much smaller country, with even less chances than the UK of being able to successfully go all on its own. Second, its economy is very tied to the surrounding countries and very dependent on that. I would like to think that the people there are aware of that.
Of course, this kind of referendums and all that tend to end up not being won by the more rational arguments, but by emotions (often the basest of them). They are perfect breeding grounds for the worst kind of demagoguery, and people unfortunately tend to lap that kind of stuff up.
Additionally, and this is just my personal opinion, I think that all this brouhaha has given wings to the thoroughly disgusting Nigel Farage. Here I can only say one thing: “Be careful with what you wish for - you may end up getting it.”
Brit who voted remain here. Amid the drama this morning (pound falling dramatically, FTSE plunging, PM resigning), the sense I get from listening to the radio is that the country is in a state of profound confusion and uncertainty. No-one knows what’s going to happen.
Personally, I have a lot at stake here, like many British citizens. I am in the process of trying to sell my house, I work in private sector international education, and a good chunk my family live and work in Spain.
Fingers crossed…
I wonder how much of the vote for “Leave” was a “fuck you” to the “establishment”, without much thought being given to the ultimate consequences.
Englishman here who voted to leave. We may take a temporary economic hit but it’s a price worth paying to be in control of our own laws again.
Good luck with that. I honestly am not so sure that the economic hit will be as temporary as that, especially if the final situation is option (3) that I mentioned above.
I can only speak for NE Scotland, but while the majority voted to remain, there was a substantial contingent of people in the fishing industry who saw leaving the EU as being very beneficial. With the decline of oil in NE Scotland, something will be needed to take its place and excluding EU fishing fleets from Scottish waters will be welcomed by and bring jobs to many.
I thought the remain voters had decided it was because everyone who didn’t agree with them was racist?
JoseB, the U.K. could find itself able to get better deals with non European powers.
That I find somewhat doubtful. Good for the UK if it can do that… But I don’t feel particularly optimistic about it.
Don’t ask me; I am not British… 