E put QH on trick 1
(sry should have mentioned that)
My take is that I have 7 top tricks, the QJ of diamonds can force an 8th and the T9 of clubs a 9th - assuming I can arrange enough entries to dummy and that I haven’t lost 5 tricks by then.
Then I look carefully at the small Heart lead. If it’s the 4, then assuming opponents are playing normal 4th-highest leads, Hearts are split 4-3 and there’s no point in holding up.
Then I play the TH from dummy (LHO might have led 4th-best from QJxx(x)). When RHO comes up with the Q or J, I duck unless the lead was the 4.
RHO will probably return a Heart. I win and play a club to the Ten. If it holds, I can knock out KD and claim. When RHO wins with the J, he will return either a Heart (if he has one left) or a Spade. If it’s a Heart, I win and play a Diamond to the Q. LHO can win his K and cash a Heart, but I have the rest.
If it’s a Spade, it all goes wrong. I can’t afford to duck - LHO wins and clears his Hearts and will have two winners when he comes in with KD. So I go up with the Ace and play a Diamond to the Q - and RHO wins and triumphantly plays his remaining Spade to his partner’s KQ9 to send me 2 off. Ouch.
So I’m missing something, but I can’t see what it is. The obvious threat is that the lead was from a 5-card Heart suit and that opponents will set up 3 winning Hearts when they’re in with the CJ. The classic counter to that is the hold-up, particularly as I’m about to finesse to RHO. And if RHO has Jxxx I can’t avoid giving him a Club - I don’t have time to set up Spades so barring very lucky distributions I have only 5 tricks outside Clubs. And there’s no point in leading Diamonds before Clubs, because opponents will hold up KD and now I’m never getting to dummy to make the 4th Club.
So I’m stumped.
:smack: For some reason I thought West’s opening lead was a Spade! I’m giving up and going to bed. (Someone, please tell me if my analysis made any sense given a spade lead.)
Right, I’ve not read ahead apart from RHO putting on QH (because that was the last message).
First off, EXACTLY how small was the opening Heart lead? If it was the 4 then we can assume that Hearts split 4-3 and we can assume that LHO has the Jack (RHO would have won with the Jack if she had both). We have entry problems to those clubs. Note the problem of LHO holding up the King of Diamonds. A 4-2 split is more likely an a 3-3 split. So, count our tricks. We have 28 HCP and 7 tricks on top, another once the King of diamonds is forced out, and a ninth once the Jack of clubs is forced out. Obviously there is no problem if the clubs split nicely. The problem then becomes how can we safely lose the lead twice if they don’t.
Duck the opening heart to help cut communications. Duck a spade return in hand but win a diamond (unblocking the Ace) or heart (perforce) return in hand. Test the clubs. If clubs split 3-3 we have no problems. Assuming they do not, we lose the fourth club. We are discarding spades. Play a diamond to the QJ, assume it loses. Win the return, cross to the remaining boss diamond and enjoy the remaining two clubs.
Clubs splitting 5-1 or 6-0 needs further analysis, but it’s 00:40 here so I’m off to bed…
Well done Merrick and Quartz - it’s just a holdup play. I say ‘just’, but with 28pts, a probably running 6 card suit, double stopper in opp’s suit, it’s easy to play hastily and just stick the A up trick 1.
This is fatal as the lead was 5H, correctly diagnosed as showing a 5 card suit. Clubs split horribly, 1-5, and the KD is with W. The good news, however, is that the clubs are all with East. So by ducking the lead you sever communications in the H suit, preserving your stopper, and enabling 9 tricks to be made.
If you don’t do this then E will win JC when you run clubs, and return a heart to set them up for W. When they get in with KD, the contract is down.
I’m probably being dumb, but how do you handle the case where East (RHO) plays a Heart at trick 2, then a small Spade when he’s in with CJ?
You can’t duck (West wins and clears the Hearts while he still has KD) and if you go up with AS, you set up two Spade winners for opponents to go with JC, KD and QH.
If I know West has KD, I can put pressure on him by playing Clubs from the top - after 2 Hearts and 4 Clubs, if he keeps H Jxx D Kx he only has room for 2 Spades, and of one of them is the K/Q the suit will block - but that line fails if East has KD or West has Jxxx in Clubs.
That’s not a problem, because you retained the Heart guard. Since LHO has five Hearts, RHO only has 2 so cannot play a third to put her partner in. As for playing the spade, you duck in hand and then win the heart return (a spade return gives you a free finesse). You have to hope that RHO has the King of diamonds.
Yes that’s right merrick - the actual layout was spades split 3-3 HXX / HXX. So running the clubs must induce a spade discard like you say, preserving the contract.
If E has KD or the clubs are with W then I don’t think the contract has any play for 9 tricks.
Thanks again, all - I see now that what I missed was that my suggested line of play actually needs 3 heart stoppers to work, and I only have 2. The line about the other side winning 2 spade tricks was kind of misplaced, as they are going to win 2 spade tricks at some stage anyway.
How do you quickly identify the danger suit for hands like this? I mean, on the face of it, how do we know which of H or D could be a problem? Is that pretty much just based on the lead (and bidding, if any)?
So what about if the opening lead is a Spade? Am I correct that the only sure-tricks line is to knock out Club Jack early before you lose your full spade guard.
It doesn’t hurt to hop Ten of hearts at trick one, either - LHO could well have led from QJxx(x)
As for ducking the first heart trick, there’s no rush, you can (should) always duck the second one if clubs don’t break, right?
Hop heart ten - an honor shows up on the right, win the Ace.
Play off three clubs, force out the Jack; now on a heart continuation, you duck.
The contract isn’t quite “cold”, RHO can and should switch to a spade , unless he has both the KQ of spades - he can set up a spade entry to partner’s hand.
Let’s say it goes how heart lead to the Ten and Queen, and you duck; now RHO plays a spade (if he has an honor, but not both, he should play his honor to pin dummy’s Jack to make LHO’s spade honor an tenace over declarer).
Now when he’s in with the Jack of clubs, another spade through your T7x of spades is very uncomfortable… If LHO started with H9x or H8x he gets two spade tricks.
They can now win their spades and put you back in hand with a spade, you can run them (maybe) but then have to lead diamonds out of hand for another diamond loser, losing the heart you ducked, 2 spades, the club, and a diamond.
So you really shouldn’t duck the FIRST heart trick. Win it, play clubs, and if RHO wins the long Jack and plays another heart, you duck it. If he can continue hearts, they were 4-3 and harmless.
If he switches to a spade honor at THAT point (his first opportunity), you win the Ace and play the diamond to dummy, hoping LHO has it.
If RHO wins the diamond King and plays another spade like the 9 or the 8, you’ll just have close your eyes and play the Ten - hoping that LHO started with Kx of spades, or that RHO had KQ98 and is playing the “low” spade now to confuse you into ducking your Ten.
In case you think I’m overstating the case for winning the first heart trick and only ducking the second one, consider if defenders had these hands:
If LHO started with:
K9xx
J9xx
Kxx
xx
And RHO held:
Qx
Qxx
xxxx
Jxxx
A good defender in LHO would never lead a spade from K9xx in your first-bid suit.
A good defender in RHO, holding 3 hearts and seeing partner’s low heart, would know it was an exactly four card suit and even if partner had the diamond card for an entry, can’t set the suit up for enough tricks to set 3NT. If you duck his Queen of hearts, he will switch to that Queen of spades at trick TWO instead of later, and you will go down.
That hand makes for a much more interesting DEFENSIVE problem, actually, giving you the hand I gave RHO, and partner’s low heart lead.
I’ll assume the bidding went something like: 1S-2C (GF), 2S-3C, 3NT.
(If the first 2C bid was not forcing to game, or if “rebid of 3C is non-forcing”, that hand has major rebidding problems, which is why I play it as 100% game forcing)
Partner leads the 4 of hearts, which should guarantee an honor (don’t lead 4th best from nothing), and you see that dummy:
J
T72
QJ2
AKQT95
holding
Qx
Qxx
xxxx
Jxxx
declarer plays the Ten of hearts, you play the Queen, and declarer ducks.
Now what?
Count opponents’ points: assume they have 25-26 minimum, you have 5, that gives partner about a 10 count at most.
Count opponents’ shape: declarer bid 2S rather than 2NT over 2C, that usually suggests a 6 card spade suit, especially since he didn’t rebid a 4-card side suit over 2C. So he’s 6331 in shape. That means partner’s shape is 4432.
Well, you have clubs stopped, that’s good. And you know all of partner’s points are outside of clubs.
so, where do they need to be to beat 3NT?
Can you set up hearts for enough tricks? The suit is 4333.
Declarer wouldn’t duck the heart with only the King of hearts - if he had Kxx he wouldn’t have hopped Ten, and certainly wouldn’t duck the Queen after it covered the Ten, for God’s sake. He either has Axx or AKx. Hopping the Ten at trick one definitely feels like he has AKx and is hoping the Ten wins cheaply from a lead under the QJxx, too.
Declarer is obviously going to try to run clubs, and will halt at your Jack, and then try to get to dummy with a diamond - so partner had better have the Ace or King of diamonds to beat this hand.
If partner had KJ94 of hearts and King of diamonds, does this hand go down on a heart continuation? You can set it up for 3 heart tricks and the diamond, and … that’s it. He can’t have both the AK of diamonds with the KJ of hearts, that’s too many points.
No, to beat this hand, you need some of his points to be in spades behind the declarer, like KTxx or K9xx; have a diamond card, either Ace or King; and after being in with the first trick on the ducked Queen of hearts, you plan to take 2 spades, the Jack of clubs, and his diamond card. If it’s the Ace, he’ll win it outright; if it’s the King, just play on spades or hearts to put declarer back into his hand, he can’t get to dummy without playing a diamond away from his holding.
And you can’t play a LOW spade with the singleton Jack in dummy, you have to squish it with your Queen.
Edit window passed, but I just realized, my summary of the defensive thinking on the 3NT hand if defender held
Qx
Qxx
xxxx
Jxxx
and got his heart Queen ducked isn’t right - if partner did indeed start with KJ9x of hearts, it’s fine to continue hearts to try for 3 heart tricks, the diamond card, and the Jack of Clubs.
The decision would have to be based on declarer’s hopping the Ten of hearts being the “tell” that he started with AKx rather than Axx, because there’d be no obvious reason to rise with the Ten with Axx opposite Txx on a low heart lead, but there is for AKx opposite Txx.
A couple of things:
LHO could have led low from H:AKxx. Declarer’s heart suit could be Jack high.
So RHO returns the Queen of Spades. Declarer ducks it. What next? If RHO plays the King of Spades, declarer covers with the Ace; if another spade, declarer covers with the 10. LHO covers the 10 with the King and leads another heart, taken by declarer. The Ace of Diamonds is unblocked. Clubs are played and RHO wins her Jack. RHO now has no hearts so plays what? Another spade? Declarer hops up with the Ace, hoping that LHO has 2 or 3 spades, forces out the King of Diamonds, wins the third heart, crosses to dummy, and takes the club tricks.
Yes, there are hands on which declarer will fail, but ducking the first heart trick maximises declarer’s chances of succeeding.
And what has LHO been discarding on those clubs?
You think the 3NT bidder bid it on 9xx of hearts at best, and rose with the Ten at trick one? OK, that’s a possibility at trick one, but a very remote one, and not one I would cater to as a defender.
As for returning the Queen of spades, if it is ducked, RHO continues spades, won by the Ace, yes. Clubs are played, RHO is in with the Jack, and plays another spade. You can’t hop up with the Ace again, you’ve already played it.
If you win the Ace of spades, when in with the club Jack, now the spade is going through your T7 to LHO’s K9 for 2 tricks.
RHO will not play the Queen of spades, then the King; the danger hand is where LHO has K9xx and RHO has Qx, or switch the K and Q of spades.
What has LHO been discarding on the clubs? he had to find two discards - a diamond a heart seem normal. Would not discard from K9xx behind declarer and the hearts are going nowhere.
Sorry, I see you meant if partner led low from AKxx, dummy had Txx, you had Qxx, and declarer Jxx to start with.
In which case why is declarer going up with the Ten at trick one? If that was a decoy play to make you think he had AKx, that’s bridge column material right there.
If clubs are with W you can make by finessing the Ten on the first round, as I suggested in my first response, but that’s a guess.
In fact, double-dummy I don’t think the hand makes even with the actual distribution - you duck the first Heart, win the second and play four rounds of clubs, but West can let go one Heart and come down to exactly S Hxx H Jx D Kx. Now a small Spade comes through, if you duck West wins and plays a Heart - he’ll only have one Heart to cash when he wins KD, but it’s the fifth defensive trick - and if you go up with the Ace defenders will make S KQ.
Of course, if any flesh-and-blood defender comes up with that play at the table, you should hold your cards up.
robardin - Interesting discussion, though the hand you’re describing is not quite the one Busy Scissors was - in the original, the lead was the 5 not the 4, so declarer can’t be sure the Hearts are 4-3. I agree that if declarer sees the 4 and can be sure of the 4-3 break he’d probably do better to take the Q with the K and play Clubs immediately - not only can’t he run East out of Hearts, but the defence needs at least one Spade trick to beat the contract, so he’d rather have East leading Hearts than pushing Spades through.
If declarer suspects a 5-2 break, though, he has to duck the Queen. It’s no good waiting to duck the second round, because West will overtake and play a third, and then he’s left hoping rather desperately that West has no more entries.
To put septimus out of misery, before his request falls off the page - feel free to disapprove of my bidding because - I went on to 4 Spades. I knew it was a bad bid when I made it, but I didn’t have the nerve to stay in the fire without at least trying to climb back into the frying-pan.
As it turns out, it got me the double-dummy par and a thoroughly-undeserved decent score, because the hands were:
. . . . . . S xxx
. . . . . . H xx
. . . . . . D xxx
. . . . . . C KJTxx
S ATxx . . . . . . . S x
H AKQJTxx . . . . H xxx
D -. . . . . . . . . . D QTxxxxx
C xx . . . . . . . . .C Qxx
. . . . . . S KQJ9x
. . . . . . H x
. . . . . . D AKJx
. . . . . . C A9x
4S is 2 off but 4H is unbeatable, and that’s where most tables ended up, probably after 1S - 4H - all pass.
There are a lot of marginal decisions there - if West goes straight to 4H on the first round he might miss 6H, partner might bid 2S or 3C over 2H but while he’s got 3 spades and a suit it’s still a balanced 4-count, East might take Quartz’s advice and go to 4H over 3H or 3S, but his hand is very weak (those Queens aren’t worth much) and he doesn’t want to push opponents to 4S.
Passing out 3H would have been a near-top, but I still think the double was justified.
Goes to show that sometimes the good guys lose.
(Apologies for the formatting - does anyone know how to make this thing preserve double spaces?)
Okay folks, I’m just back from a lesson about McKenney & suit preference signals. Can you guys give me some good examples?