My brother (Kingston and Surbiton) is voting Lib Dem for the first time - he voted Labour when he was a pothead in college, and Conservative after that. Not that it matters- the Lib Dems have held the constituency since 1997 anyway.
Not a cat in hell’s chance, no. Polls have them on about 20%, which is about what they have received in recent elections. And their vote is spread around quite evenly, which doesn’t help in our constituency system. I’m a bit surprised they aren’t doing better this time, with an unpopular government and no huge enthusiasm for the Conservatives. Maybe they will get into the upper 20s range, who knows? But largest party, or majority party? No way.
That said, I too am in Kingston & Surbiton and here you could easily mistake the Lib Dems for the dominant party, such is the volume of campaign material they bombard you with. The Tories come a distant second, and you occasionally get flyers from some outfit called the “Labour” Party.
Yep, the fringe will get more votes on a purely protest basis, although whether they’ll translate to actual seats remains to be seen - BNP and UKIP on the right, the Greens on the Left, and SNP and Plaid Cymry for the Scottish and Welsh respectively. And the joke parties will get small bumps as well. But nobody will vote for the English Democrats, because frankly there are some lines you don’t cross.
Nitpick: Cymru.
I’ll vote for anyone who stands here who isn’t from the main three parties. That would have been UKIP at the last election, when I didn’t bother. Hopefully it’ll be TUSC this time around. Or the Raving Loonies, either one.
My prediction is either Brown “doing a Major” a la 1992, or a hung parliament with the curse of the Lib Dems continuing as the Labour party and Conservatives cast aside the thin veil of party politics and form a coalition block aimed at stealing as much money as possible from the tax payer.
Though after the word “nitpick” the C would mutate, so you should say:
Nit pic: Nghymru.
What happens if no party has a majority and nobody can form a coalition? Would HM invite the leader of the biggest plurality to form a government?
ETA: I hate you jjimm.
HM would need to invite the party leader with the best chance of getting the House of Commons to pass bills authorising expenditure on the day-to-day running of government. If there is no party or coalition controlling a majority in the House, then the next best choice is a minority party which has received assurances of support for supply and appropriations bill from other MPs sufficient to form a majority. That’s not necessarily the party with a plurality: it depends on what deals can be made by the party leaders. But if there’s no majority, HM might want to wait and see what the party leaders can arrange between themselves. She might also want to talk to all the party leaders: not just the leaders of the largest three, but also the leaders of smaller parties that might be essential to building a majority in the House.
Goddamn it there’s a lot of cynicism here. But there does seem to be one consensus: Labour suck.
I suspect I’ll be voting SNP, not as a protest, but as a genuine choice. Those nice people keep doorstepping me asking how I feel about independence, and the more I think of George Osborne as Chancellor the more enthusiastic I get about just cutting loose. At the very least, greater fiscal autonomy in Scotland would perhaps force some difficult choices to be made financially in this neck of the woods. Or maybe it wouldn’t, in which case I can emigrate with a clear conscience.
In any case, between the news and the debates it’s going to be a long four weeks. I’m off to buy the complete Father Ted and get some cans in.
From that article, it seems that Brown stays as a Prime Minister trying to sort out a coalition.
Anyways, to answer the question. I’m in the Henley area (which was Boris Johnson’s). Labour have no chance in this area and I’m fairly sure it is considered to be a Conservative safe seat. That said, I’ve no confidence in the Tory’s to do a good job so I’m leaning towards Lib Dems or spoiling my vote.
As an Anglophile I’d support the Conservative Party though I’m hoping the SNP and the Welsh nationalists (whatever they call themselves) get squelched. Huzzah for David Cameron! This will be the vanguard of the Conservative Revolution 2010.
No. There would be another election as soon as someone lost a significant vote. Note that the PM is the person who can command a majority in the House of Commons, not necessarily the leader of one of the parties. So HM might invite David Davis or Alan Johnson to try.
I’ve never voted anything but Labour in my life. But I haven’t even bothered checking recently if I am still eligible for an absentee ballot - I seem to remember that right sunsets after a while.
I couldn’t bring myself to vote Tory, and the LibDems are so odious they make my skin crawl (that from years of going up against them in local campaigning).
Much as I think were I back in Blighty I would either vote Green or stay home, I have a sneaking suspicion I would find myself making that cross in the Labour box. Some habits are very hard to break, and Cameron winning is terrifying.
As a great man once said: “No amount of cajolery, and no attempts at ethical or social seduction, can eradicate from my heart a deep burning hatred for the Tory Party. So far as I am concerned they are lower than vermin.”
Well, sure. But the Tories suck more. Actually that might be unfair, because I am so far from understanding what they would really do as a government that I can’t be sure how badly they suck. Except for their ideas on education policy, which I’m pretty sure are dire:
Anyway, education’s devolved so I’m safe for now.
This leads one to wonder what party supporters of the Lovecraftian Great Old Ones would cast their votes fo: Plaid Cthulhu? 
Yes, but Osborne isn’t.
So they’re as bad as each other. Oi vey!
Legally, it does not have to be a party leader. However, it is highly unlikely in practice that an MP who belong to a party with another leader would be chosen. Of course, following the election, if Labour no longer has a majority, it is possible that the Labour Party could decide to replace Gordon Brown as leader, and then the new leader could try to build a majority in the House of Commons. But, with Gordon Brown still as leader, how could any Labour MPs support someone else forming a government without leaving or splitting the Labour Party?
May I ask why? Details would be appreciated. And what great man uttered that anti-Tory remark?
For a very interesting and readable (if not always plausible) British political novel that includes a hung parliament scenario, I highly recommend Jeffrey Archer’s First Among Equals.
I’m not sure that it’s ever been put to the test since the formalisation of the parties. In the case of the Conservatives, the ‘alternate’ is David Davis and I don’t see the Liberals backing him. Unless they go for his libertarian credentials.