Brown has ended years of speculation and at last confirmed the election date for May 6th, prompting all three major parties to fully gear up for election season.
So, who are you voting for and why - and dopers outside the U.K., what’s your take? Who do you think will be the Prime Minister come May?
My gut feeling is that it’s all over for Brown, simply based on the economy. I can’t help but think if he had called a general election straight away he would have won a landslide based on the simple fact he’s not Blair. By leaving it until the last minute (which does give the distinct impression that he’s trying to savour ever last moment of power) I think he’s doomed himself. Of course, I could be way off.
I’m hoping for a hung parliament, with the Tories and Lib Dems forming a majority together (the Lib Dems have stated they’d never cooperate with the Tories, but, let’s face it, they’ll do anything for a shot at power). Hopefully the Tories will have to give some real concessions to the Lib Dems for a coalition (like PR and other electoral reforms).
I think an outright Tory majority would be bad for the union: the SNP would mop up in Scotland, which is everybody’s worst nightmare.
Never thought I’d say that, but they’re way long in the tooth and I don’t like Brown or the way things are going, and Iraq is still a very big sore point for me.
The only party in my constituency with any chance of unseating the Labour incumbent is the Lib Dems, so I’ll be casting for them. They’re also the only major party that opposed Iraq.
Since I still haven’t sorted out my citizenship properly (the Home Office wants £800+ for the application) I can’t vote but would probably go Lib Dem. My current MP is Tory but she’s retiring anyway and we’re getting redistricted, so who knows what the demographics of the new area will look like.
I suspect that we’ll see a few more small-party and independent MPs in the next Parliament due to general voter disgruntlement, the Lib Dems will win some and lose some and end up one or two seats up, the Conservatives will make good gains but not enough for a majority, Labour will take a big hit but will still have a plurality in a hung Parliament, we’ll end up with someone relatively inoffensive like, say, Alan Johnson as PM and Vince Cable as Chancellor and nothing will get done until the next election.
And Peter Mandelson will still have a Cabinet position. Scary…
Is it too late to change where I vote? If I vote at Uni it will be Lib Dem, in London Tory. I’m a stereotypical Labour voter but I’m still disgusted they got re-elected the third time…
I don’t particularly like the Conservatives though, they’re going to cause way too much unnecessary trouble with the EU which is a needless distraction right now.
Not sure who to vote for - all seem distinctly unpalatable. I’m a natural labour voter but Brown’s shortcomings are clear and it just seems obvious that the party needs to go into opposition at this point in time. The conservatives appear extremely short on talent and I cannot stand Cameron on a personal level. Nick Clegg is worse.
I’m in a very marginal constituency - Edinburgh South is split three ways with Labour winning by an arse hair in 05. I’ll probably end up looking at the local candidates and just voting on that basis.
Labour are going to have to work very hard to get my vote. Margaret Moran has been an utter disgrace. But I’m willing to give the new candidate, Gavin Shuker, a fair shake. His campaign literature is thus far disappointing. ‘Vote Labour to keep the Tories out’ isn’t inspiring, and frankly, given the choice, if I find myself wanting to keep the Tories out, I’ll vote Lib Dem.
The Lib Dems have been making major inroads at a local level and have been assiduous in courting votes. I’ve been leafletted by them regularly over the past many years. Their candidate is Qurban Hussain.
The Tories have just started leafletting me. After not having bothered for 5 years. They couldn’t find anyone to stand for this ward at the last council election. Their candidate, Nigel Huddlestone, is unknown to me.
So far i’d guess it’s going to be significant gains for the Lib Dems and the smaller parties, continuing the current trend for large scale gains in local elections by the smaller groups to the national level (though it’ll still be the Top Three by a mile); i’d say the entirety of the elections can be summed up in one question; how much will the Conservatives win? It’s their election to lose. They could get a landslide, they could get thoroughly beaten. So far I haven’t been particularly impressed.
I myself will probably vote Lib Dem, though I don’t think they’ll win or get into a co-operative deal. They tend to match my own opinions well enough, and in general I think switching out parties every now and again is a good thing in and of itself. But really I think most of the vote for them will be the “Not Labour/Not Tory” vote, rather than actual preference.
I’m going to hold my nose and vote Lib-Dem. Never trusted the Tories, never will (party of the rich, by the rich, for the rich - the Eton connection and those holidays on billionares’ yachts in the Med only reinforce my view). Think Labour have been in power too long (Jinty’s Law: all governments tend authoritarian, and the longer they’re in power, the more pronounced this tendency) and they need to go and have a good hard think to remember what their values are.
So what are the Conservatives and the LibDems, respectively, offering the voters this year, other than being not-Labour? (I remember a GD thread run during the last General Election, with clips of the party political ads, and the all the Tories seemed to have to say was, “We’re not Labour”; and I still don’t get what the LibDems were saying.)
Does Nick Clegg have any real chance of getting a majority? It seems much more likely that he’ll be sorting out whether to make a deal with Labour or the Tories.
It seemed like everyone I knew in the UK voted for Lib Dem, too. Then again, I did live in Oxford West, Evan Harris’ constituency, so maybe they all truly did vote LD.
I foresee one of the ugliest election campaigns in over a decade–probably worse than 1997, even, because at least in '97 the outcome seemed fairly obvious. My non-Tory friends were understandably nervous that Labour would fark it up again but in retrospect the only real question was going to be how large the Labour landslide was going to be. Not this time. Labour’s obviously in trouble but I don’t think that guarantees anything.
UK elections have always been about the margins and the swing. There are people who have always voted Labour, people who have always voted Conservative, and people (though not that many) who have always voted Lib Dem. Getting the swing voters to vote for your party is where the election will be won or lost. In 1997 I remember that the swing voters were so anti-Tory that they were just voting for the candidate most likely to beat the Conservative. I don’t think Labour’s that hated now, and I don’t think many Lib Dem voters are going to cross the aisle to vote Tory and vice versa. But what reason is Labour giving swing voters to choose them?
I think the Lib Dems are going to do well, but maybe not as well as their supporters hope. Still too much Euroscepticism around. I think you’re going to see the minor Eurosceptic parties make some advances. Sadly I think this includes the BNP.
In the end, I think we’re going to see a hung Parliament, barring some major gaffe by Brown or by Campbell. I might wager that the Conservatives will be the largest party but I don’t think they’ll be able to form a government. Another election in 12 months.
Seriously, if I were a Brit, I’d probably vote for the LibDems; their policies are generally in line with my views. Labour has been in power an awfully long time, and Brown just seems snakebit. I’m not convinced Cameron is up to the job, and wonder how well he can keep the Neanderthals of his party in check. In any event, I suspect Labour is going to get pounded quite badly.
