This policy should not be though of as “we don’t care,” which sounds so arrogant.
I think it’s more like “Strategic separation,” and I believe it’s a good way to begin actually closing the rift that has opened between the New and the Old Worlds.
First things first: America and Europe are both democratic societies. Commerce between us will continue. The fact is, we need you and you need us.
However…
The lesson of the Iraq war seems to be that bilateral relationships are flexible and fluid. They can be tailored to any particular situation and can carry as many obligations as each side desires. On the other hand, we learned multilateralism is a trap in which the failure to reach consensus among many nations paralyzes the ability to act. With the threats that America faces, flexibility is key.
Therefore, “strategic separation” means America to forge alliances with non-Islamic countries whose strategic interests coincide with those of the U.S. and whose geography is suitably close to the theater of operations - i.e. - the Middle East.
I think the move out of Saudi Arabia was the first step. In the near future, I expect the significant withdrawal of American forces from Germany and into southeastern Europe, nearer to the theater of operations and in countries much more politically aligned with us.
I would ask the German SDMB posters - isn’t this what you want? After all, Schroder was elected mostly by running on an anti-American platform - won’t the large withdrawal of American forces from your country be a victory for you? Seems like a win-win to me.
I also think that “strategic separation” means we will gladly play a lesser role in NATO, which more and more seems like an obsolete, Cold War relic. A few years ago, France offered to become full members of NATO again if the American role in the alliance was sharply reduced. I imagine we may actually agree with the French.
Of course, we will also pay dues that are commensurate with our lesser role. We will be equal members with France and Belgium and Germany, and by so doing will marginalize NATO influence and clout.
Turkey’s decision to forbid the basing of U.S. troops made bases in Bulgaria and Romania particularly valuable to the United States during the war in Iraq. Thus, while Bulgaria and Romania are not members of NATO, they proved much more important than NATO itself. I think Bush, Rummy, and Cheney have learned that lesson well.
I do admit that it will be interesting to see how we treat Eastern European countries like Bulgaria, Poland, Hungary, Romania. Those governments did support us (admittedly against popular will), and it may not be in our interests to encourage them to join NATO. Nevertheless, they are part of Europe and badly want to join the EU.
In other words, for better or worse, the security umbrella that America provides Europe will be significantly curtailed.
Curiously, I think this may be what Europe needs. Europe needs time and space to build its own identity, to develop its own strength, independent of us. I wish them well.