Bush's one great gift to us: Obama.

I think Obama has a very, very serious shot at winning the presidency, and if he does, I think we can thank George Bush.

It’s just this simple: By the time of the election, America will be so utterly revolted and fatigued byjust how deeply foul Bush and Co. have been, that our minds will be cracked wide open and we’ll be ready to give a black man a try.

I’d say the same theory would apply to Hillary, except that she just has so much buggage in her way, as well as good stuff on her side (mostly in the form of her increasingly-beloved hubby) that whatever happens with her will be a thing apart from Bush.

Oh, and we’ll also be able to thank Oprah, since she is going to, for the first time in her public life, stump hard for Obama. And it will be an interesting test of the Oprah Factor. She got the country reading…can she get them voting for a black man?

I’m jsut sad that my mother died a few months ago and won’t be around to see him elected. My most cherished possession of hers is her NAACP Lifetime Membership plaque, dated 1963.

Anyway…anyone have a different take? A pooh pooh? I’m not sure this is that much of a debate, but I never feel comfy brining up politics anywhere other than the Pit or GD…

I really, really, really hate to say this but I think it is a real, even probable outcome: Racism and gender bias save the republicans.

As much as I like Obama and Hillary, (less so Hillary) I couldn’t think of a worse time to open the door for predjudice to steal the day, as much as they need this win. Looking at the recent history, it takes a white, southern, male to take the Whitehouse as a democrat. (Carter & Clinton in the last 45 years. That’s it if you haven’t noticed and Al Gore was the next closest.)The republicans did so well in identifyng and courting the voters they have needed to win. The party went to the voters rather than asking the voters to come to them. If they end up with either Hillary or Obama on the ticket as the candidate (heaven forbid they end up with both on the ticket) they face a major obstacle in the south and as much as I shouldn’t have to say this, I do have to say this cause the party seems too dim to get it: The democrats must pull some weight from the south. If you don’t get two southern states, you lose.

Having said that, the south just isn’t ready and even if they might be, there is too much at stake to risk it. Nothing will bring out the deadbeat rednecks like a black man and a woman threatening the whitehouse. This is exactly why Edwards is being pounded so hard by the republicans. He is the only real shot at the nomination that poses a threat to the republicans and they know it. Make sure John doesn’t get the nomination and the democrats lose.

I disagree: he can win because he has something of the air of JFK.

Sheesh, no one liked Edwards last time around, why does he have a real shot this time? :dubious:

Given the shape of the pack, why wouldn’t a Clinton-Obama ticket be likely to pull in the most voters? The rabid anti Hillary and racists out there aren’t going to vote democrat anyway. This way you get the two leading candidates with the most funding linked up.

Barack Obama seems like a nice enough guy but I’ve never seen the slightest hint of why THIS guy should be the President of the United States. If people actually open their minds that means they’re taking all the facts in, and if they’re taking all the facts in surely they’ll notice the man is the very definition of an empty political suit.

I mean, what does he stand for? What’s the point to him? He is personally really impressive in any way that a half dozen other candidates aren’t? Maybe I just haven’t gotten the straight deop on the guy but he reminds me of a really vacuous management consultant who knows how to wear a good suit and say the latest buzzwords. I’m extremely unimpressed by John Edwards although I 100% admit that impression is entirely superficial, but he’s a much, much more impressive candidate than Barack Obama in terms of resume and at least coming out with some opinions. Hillary Clinton has the kind of smarts and bipartisan ins you’d look for too. The only advantage Obama has over those two is he just appears more charismatic. Well, big whoop.

See, the danger of people opening their minds is they might actually think about those things.

Of course, Obama could turn out to be an excellent President. Maybe he IS really the right guy for the job. He certainly could not be worse than the current officeholder or his shadow President.

But he kind of strikes me as being to this race what Edwards was to the last one; this may be the one where he has to run even though he’ll lose the nomination, just to establish himself as a candidate. However, this may be a really good thing for Barack Obama. I have a horrible feeling the Democrats’ best chance is 2012, not 2008, because their Congress has been such a craven, gutless disaster.

So here’s my wild ass predeiction; Barack Obama will become the first black President on January 20, 2013.

I think that since this is already the popular wisdom about Obama (to the extent that he is known at all), it is not something which will only come about if people open their minds. I think there are legit criticisms of the man, but I don’t think empty political suit is one of them.

On foreign policy, he has offered a very good anti-terrorism strategy. It has been endorsed by dozens of experts as the most intelligent and honest strategy yet offered. Outlinedhere . He also made the most accurate pre-war assessment of the Iraq War. From 2002, “I know that even a successful war against Iraq will require a US occupation of undetermined length, at undetermined cost, with undetermined consequences. I know that an invasion of Iraq without a clear rationale and without strong international support will only fan the flames of the Middle East, and encourage the worst, rather than best, impulses of the Arab world, and strengthen the recruitment arm of Al Qaeda. I am not opposed to all wars. I’m opposed to dumb wars.”

On domestic issues, he speaks to race issues in a way other candidates have been unable to. Watch this speech for a great example. He is Bill Clinton smart (Harvard Law Review, etc.) His health care plan isn’t all that different from Edwards’ or Hillary’s, but it’s pretty good. Above all, he inspires people. This is partly about well-chosen rhetoric, but not exclusively. Part of it is his background as a community organizer and civil rights lawyer. Part of it is the way he is able to talk about issues in a way that is different from the traditional model. A little inspiration could go a long way.

That is demonstrably untrue, at least as to the anti-Hillary voters. Witness this Salon article on Republicans who would never vote for Hillary Clinton, but who would support Obama.

And anecdotally, I hear the same thing among my many (centrist) Republican friends. Obama gets a thumbs-up. Hillary gets a scowl.

Oops, I linked to the wrong section of video above (though that one is good). I cannot find the section I intended, but the full speech is here .

The two aren’t mutually exclusive. The qualities that make him appealing exist apart from Bush, I’m not saying that Bush is so bad that we’ll elect ANY black man. I’m saying that Bush is so bad that people who would otherwise not be able vote for Obama IN SPITE of his compelling qualities will be able to do so now because Bush will have pushed them over that line.

In 2004 the Democrats relied on what they perceived to be the people’s strong dislike for Bush and we all know how that turned out. Of course it’s entirely possible that the dislike for Bush and the Republicans is so much greater these days that they’ll vote for anyone who happens to be the other guy. It wouldn’t be something I’d depend on if I were running for election though.

I’m not even sure if there’s a significant chunk of people who won’t vote for Obama just because he’s black. I’m sure they exist, just as I’m sure some would vote for him because he’s black, but I don’t really know the numbers. Does anyone really know the numbers?

I think Obama has a shot, then again I think Clinton is more likely to get the party’s nomination, but I’m not convinced that hatred for Bush is necessarily going to push the electorate towards whoever runs for the Democrats. Regardless of who they pick to run the Democrats really need to figure out a way to campaign more effectively.

Marc

Go see him speak sometime. Read up all the stuff out there on him. It’s not just that he is offering the promised land, it’s that he is acknowledging that it’s going to be a bitch to get there. All the other candidates pussy foot around the fact that we are absolutely screwed, but Obama acknowledges this while outlining insanely simple, rational, and above all logical ways to get out of our current situation. If someone so smart and logical as Obama wants to have a go at fixing the current situation, I’ll try my hardest to give them a shot. Why not?

Nitpick: The period specified includes one more Southern white male: LBJ.

Since the Civil Rights Act, the only northern Democrat to win any electoral votes in the old Confederacy was Humphrey winning Texas in 1968. McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis, and Kerry went scoreless in the south.

Virginia, at least, is getting massively easier, though, since a) northern Virginia is growing much faster than the rest of the state, and b)northern Virginia, which was already fairly solidly left, is constantly getting more so. The only reason there’s a Republican representing us in the South is how crazily the Republican state legislature draws the districts up here.

Nitpick nitpick. LBJ was Texan, Texas is not “the South”. Its an understandable error, the kind commonly made by people who don’t know the difference between a cracker and a peckerwood.

I don’t much like Hillary, and her politics don’t have that much to do with it. Sure, she presents herself as an agent for change, but a little change, a tweak here and there, maybe a nice color coordinated pillow… OK, that was needlessly sexist, but we can’t help it, its testerone poisoning, and the Goddess made us this way for Her reasons…Babies, mostly, seems to be all She cares about…

But she brings that out in me, there is some reason I dislike her so viscerally, and, for the life of me, I don’t know what it is. So it becomes my duty as a citizen to regard that feeling with suspicion, to hold it at arm’s length and to remember that I’ve been fooled before, when I was sold the laughable notion that GeeDub was a right-centrist and a “good ol’ boy”. Center right against center left, no reason to get too excited…for a smart guy, I can be one *dumb * sumbitch.

All in all, I still prefer Pretty Johnny as a candidate, though I’d prefer Richardson as a President. The future of my unborn grandchildren may very well hinge on this election, so if its Hillary, I will argue for her and I will vote for her. The alternatives are simply too grim to contemplate.

And now, a bit of gleeful karaoke…

**Natasha’s ** back, and you’re gonna be in trouble…Hey la, hey la, Natasha’s back!

Unless they remove term limits, or Darth Cheney decides to run, I have difficulty believing that it’s possible the next President could possibly be worse (given the slate of reasonably likely winners.) If nothing else, the entire world outside the USA’s going to be very relieved. International tension will drop a few points just by virtue of Bush being out of office.

I mean, you have to be optimistic just because of that, right?

The devil you say.

Texas is culturally Southern. Settled by Southerners, slave state, Confederate state. Check. Check. Check. Barbecue-eating, grits-cooking, southern drawling, football-addled. Check. Check. Check. Check. Steeped in religion, scorching hot, full of loud-mouthed storytellers. Check. Check. Check.

“One of us! One of us! One of us!” says I.

Here’s the “Issues” page of his website. I wish it said less about what he has done as a senator and more about what he will do as president, but, apart from that, it’s at least as specific as any other candidate’s.

In Joel Garreau’s “Nine Nations of North America” analysis, Texas is divided between three of the nine cultural regions: Dixie, MexAmerica and the Breadbasket. But the Southern culture does tend to predominate there, IMO.

The optimism here seems naive and amusing to me. It’s so early. I think the next President will be a white male.