There is a probability scenario that I have been mulling over lately. My logical mind and my intuition are battling over this.
Let’s say that the odds of being dealt a pat flush poker hand are 1:60 (I’m not sure of the exact odds, but this will do for illustration). A dealer agrees to deal you 60 hands.
Let’s also say that there is a raffle where 60 individuals place their names into the proverbial hat, one to be drawn.
Which of these gives you the best chance of winning?
My intuition says the raffle because there is a guaranteed winner. There is no guarantee that 60 poker hands will produce a flush.
If my life were dependent on winning, I’d choose the raffle and rather participate in a contest that depends on the law of large numbers.
But my logical mind says “Hey, a 1 in 60 chance is a 1 in 60 chance. No difference.”
Is there a difference between 1:60 and 1:60 as I’ve described it?