The Votemaster claims that Trump has prepared about 100 pardons to be released this afternoon. They have a long discussion of it here: ElectoralVote. It begins with:
Today, as noted above, Donald Trump will unveil about 100 pardons. Some of them will be controversial. Some of them might plausibly be deemed invalid or even illegal. In anticipation of this news, probably the last major news Trump will produce as president, we thought we would take a look at some of the issues and questions involved.
To start, because most presidents have been pretty careful not to abuse the pardon power (outside of an occasional controversial pardon, like Bill Clinton’s pardon of Marc Rich), they have been very little explored by the courts. So, much of this is necessarily somewhat speculative. And, with that said:
I don’t think he will pardon anyone. It isn’t in his own interest to do so.
First of all, anyone given a pardon is immune from prosecution. They can’t plead the fifth. They can’t refuse to answer questions. They can be compelled to testify against him.
Second, he’s trying to distance himself from their actions. He wants to claim that he didn’t incite them to riot, they weren’t following his instructions, they were all Antifa and BLM. He can’t afford to show any sign of support for them.
Third, he’s a pig who doesn’t care about anyone else. The fact that they have ruined their lives by supporting him doesn’t mean a damn thing to him.
Fourth, they all let him down. They didn’t fight hard enough. They lost, and he only likes winners. Why should he support them, when they all failed him.
Fifth, he’s got a long history of stabbing his supporters in the back. He promises a quid pro quo. He takes his quo, and stiffs them on his quid. Word is, he’s even refusing to pay Rudy’s legal bill. Pardoning people who risked everything to help him would break the habit of a lifetime.
Yup. I think if he were calmly and rationally concerned about the implications for impeachment, he would not pardon the insurrectionists. But he’s not calm or rational. He’s losing power, and stirring things up and behaving antagonistically may win out.
I think dismissing the idea that he will pardon them is wrong.I think it’s a toss-up.
I think pardoning all of the rioters is absolutely on the table for all of the reasons stated already, but one more reason is that this would forever connect him (and likely endear him to) his radical base of supporters. Trump operates on loyalty: this is one final chance to demonstrate loyalty to his base, which could come in handy if he were to face prosecution.
One might naturally wonder how pardoning his radicals would in any way deter prosecution – it wouldn’t necessarily deter prosecutors themselves or keep them from attempting to do their jobs. But what this could do is to put build a deep sense of affinity that can be milked later with some good conspiracies and backstabber myths. That, in turn, could forever put a hyper-partisan, radicalized Republican party firmly in Trump’s grip indefinitely, which in turn would put pressure on the Republicans to continue with anti-democratic campaigns and behavior.
More specifically, it means that at both state and national levels, the Republicans attempt to rig the vote, rig the judiciary, and rig the criminal justice system so that political and legal institutions eventually collapse as fair public institutions and instead fall into the hands of ideological partisans who weaponize these systems.
I know it sounds far fetched, but I could see this working and these dynamics playing out over time.
I’m not so sure Trump is interested in showing loyalty. He expects loyalty with nothing in return except his promises (that he never keeps), and to bask in the glow of his excellence.
I’m not saying he would necessarily care about showing loyalty in the altruistic sense, but he does care about having a fan base, and he knows that these radicals have been his biggest fans – I could see him issuing mass pardons for that reason alone.
But I agree with the previous commentary: I could see him doing it as a way of trolling, to get under the skin of 200+ “angry democrats!!!” and to spit in the eye of justice department lawyers.
I doubt Trump is strategic enough to think about the other potential ‘benefits’ of a mass pardon. In fact, it would probably be even more counter-productive in the short-term because it would infuriate his political opponents and those in the justice system who are waiting to get their hands on him. But I could see how tables could be turned.
I think the bottom line is that we’re at a pivot point. I hope he doesn’t issue mass pardons, and he might not have the balls to do it – but I could see him actually pulling the trigger on something like this, and it could have disastrous consequences on our democracy long term.
Definitely not in the altruistic sense. I just don’t think Trump thinks in terms of earning or showing loyalty. He simply demands it. He expects it because he’s Trump.
Why would he pardon antifa terrorists? Isn’t that who he claims was responsible? If he pardons everyone involved then he is, according to himself, pardoning antifa. How can he do this without admitting that he lied about who the rioters were?
…because the antifa terrorists are getting away with it, not being arrested; instead the ‘deep state’ is arresting Trump fans.
This is why I think he’s actively considering a mass pardon, because if he doesn’t pardon his proud boys and oath keepers, then he will have less influence with them. They will have gotten arrested for his cause and he will have abandoned them. Trumpism will continue, but it’s much less likely to be called “Trumpism” even if he comes back and tries to ‘defend’ them later. He’d gain a lot of street cred with his thugs if he pardoned them in the same way he pardoned Roger Stone and Paul Manafort.
I’m sure that he’s got a lot of insiders telling him not to go there, because they’re worried about their own futures and their own careers if he does. It’s his inner circle that might have the most to lose. There would be a huge backlash - so bad that it might convince a few more senators to convict him.
Up until now, I would have said Trump won’t pardon his rioting minions because he has been afraid of provoking Senate Republicans to convict him in the upcoming impeachment proceedings.
But McConnell has now ripped the bandaid off the wound, laying blame for the Capitol insurrection squarely at Trump’s feet. His words left little doubt as to where he stands on the issue. Had to be a tough choice, as it will rend the Republican party in two.
Estimates hover around 20 Senate Republicans who, if unchained by McConnell, would likely vote to convict.
I wonder if this changes Trump’s calculus on pardoning the rioters.
I also wonder where this leaves Cruz and Hawley with respect to their futures in the Senate. While I doubt they would be removed, they may at least be censured.
According to experts I’ve heard discussing this subject, the answer is probably not. Preemptive pardons don’t need to be produced until someone is charged with a crime.
Great. So, my plan to finally sleep well because he can’t possibly still make me angry with anything tangible is thwarted. That said, I imagine they have to actually be filed somewhere and Biden can make them public?
Interesting point to consider, and I have to wonder if McConnell’s statement was as much a message directed at them as it was to Trump.
Maybe this is the point where McConnell can say he got the tax cuts and supreme court justices he wanted. Fell a little short on gutting Obamacare but can’t win 'em all. But he wants his party back.
Sadly and again, the answer appears to be probably not. There are but two limitations on a president’s pardon power: 1) They can’t be used to pardon impeachment/conviction; and 2) They apply only to federal crimes.
Trump may not even have to write down his preemptive pardon. He would need only to have to prove that he orally issued one. That could be accomplished through a couple of witnesses testifying under oath.
Frankly, I’ve never doubted Trump will issue a self-pardon. He can’t resist exerting the powers he has, and even if overturned by the SCOTUS, it will buy him time as the litigation wends its way through the court process. He’s big on that tactic.
I think any pardons he issues for his spawn or himself will be of a secretive nature, revealed only when or if charges are laid.
For the rioters, however, I think he would make those pardons very public. Sort of a final bird-flipping to McConnell for not backing him in the conviction stage of impeachment.
There was some talk about this in another thread (or maybe in this thread – there’s pardon talk all over this forum), but whether and how a pardon could be used to compel testimony would likely depend on how the pardon is framed. If you’re pardoned for one specific crime, but the conduct you committed could be used to charge you with additional crimes, you still have a right against self-incrimination.
I think if I was in Trump’s position, with his vindictive mindset, I would want to do something to cause as much harm to ‘my enemies’ - which at this point would be viewed as what, all Democrats, most Republicans, most of government, really - as I possibly could…with less than a day left of the presidency, there is one thing I would do that would cause as much difficulty and harm as I possibly could:
“I hereby pardon all persons of any crime which is under the jurisdiction of my presidential ability to issue pardons.”
And with that, any federal crime committed before this date is now pardoned. Every single federal inmate is now a free person. Every crime currently suspected, under investigation, or in the process of being tried, is now over. In some ways, this would actually be a good thing, but it would probably be more bad than good. But most of all, it would also be a whole heap of difficulty and trouble to those who are left holding the bag of having to react to it, and that is what would matter to me if I was in Trump’s position, with the mindset I believe him to have.