As to whether he will, it’s hard to say what his twisted narcissistic mind thinks would be the best course of action for him, but pardoning the rioters seems to me that it would be the absolute final nail in the coffin for any political future he might have.
His stranglehold over the Republican party has been due to a relatively fragile coalition of fringe CT nutjobs who believe and are inflamed by his rhetoric, and more ordinary everyday Repubs who aren’t really all that political, so they don’t pay much attention to trump’s worst behaviors, they just know they’d never vote for a Democrat.
Pardoning the rioters might get trump quickly back in the good graces of the fringe loonies who are feeling betrayed by trump’s latest video in which he denounced them; but it would make absolutely clear to establishment Republicans that he did and does support the events of January 6. Clear enough that they couldn’t continue to ignore his worst behaviors, even if they wanted to.
Not pardoning the rioters but making weasely, wishy-washy criticisms of them when he’s asked, while making ‘wink-wink’ vague comments in support of them and their beliefs will eventually get the CT fringsters back in line, because they can’t stay mad at their hero forever. In other words he would have to continue to walk that fine line between encouraging the fringsters and not being overtly horrifying to establishment Repubs, because he has no political future or leverage with either group alone. But I don’t know if he has the ability to get out of his toxic narcissistic head to understand that.