I remember in 1989, the Loma Prietta quake in California was predicted several days in advance by a gentleman from the USGS. He got in trouble for it afterword because he used the animal method. His boss’ told him to never do that again or he would be fired because it was unscientific.
The thing is, it worked. Oh, he was only able to give a general, “…within the next few days…” warning, nevertheless, it was in all the papers.
http://www.straightdope.com/columns/read/2830/can-animals-sense-earthquakes
Here’s a link to the article in question. It helps to have that in the thread to allow discussion.
Do you have any citation for your claim about the gentleman from the USGS?
I’d like to see a cite also. I was living there at the time, and don’t recall anything about that.
A previous thread on the topic: Can cats, dogs, etc. really sense earthquakes beforehand? - Factual Questions - Straight Dope Message Board
I think you’re talking about James Berkland.
From the SD Column
It’s hard to tell for sure, but it sounds like Cecil was aware of Mr. Berkland’s research — at least in regards to the animal behavior portion of it — but didn’t give it much credence.
The part about the lunar cycles is taken with varying degrees of credulity in the reports I’ve come across.
There was a Nature special called, “Can animals predict disaster.” which apparently features an interview with Berkland. At any rate, Mr Berkland is pictured on this Nature page which also displays a close up of a newspaper article presumably predicting the quake. (Anyone know where Gilroy is?)
Also from the Nature site:
Gilroy (garlic capital of the world) is about 2 hours south of SF.
I loves me some Garlic!
The dateline of the article featured on the Nature site is Gilroy… although I can see no actual date.
FWIW— Berkland was actually suspended for claiming credit for his prediction and filed a claim against the County for damaging his reputation.
link (intro to a pay to read archive hit.)
Two of my macaws who were sleeping in the same room with me went into preflight position at abour 4:30 am on the morning of the Northridge quake. They woke me up and I noticed their position and prepared for the quake. After about a minute it hit and the rest of the flock took off flying around their room.
Cecil does say, early on in the column that we’re commenting on:
A few years back, we lived on Saipan, an island in the western Pacific. (The Marianas Islands have their own little tectonic plate.) One night our parakeets woke us up screaming. My husband got up to investigate and was near the bird cage when the earthquake hit. It wasn’t major, but since my husband was right there, he was able to keep a framed print from crashing to the ground and breaking. The two birds reportedly squawked a bit before another felt earthquake hit, so these incidents sealed in my mind that whenever we lived in an earthquake zone, we would have birds to warn us.
I read the above book, about the 1906 San Francisco quake. The authors wrote several other disaster books as well.
There is an eyewitness account of a police officer, out on the beat early in the morning before the quake hit. He passed by a stable and heard all the horses stomping and neighing. He also spoke with a milkman who was having trouble controlling his horse that morning, and the guy said he didn’t know what had got into the animal. I don’t remember how long it was before the quake, not more than an hour, but certainly more than a minute before the event.
Circumstancial evidence, but there it is.
Here’s the thing: Even if this Berkland fellow did predict the quake, that still doesn’t answer the question. Were there other quakes he didn’t predict? How often did he predict a quake, and none came? Just how specific was his prediction? Did he, in fact, actually predict it, or just post-dict it? Answering those questions would be the first step in a scientific process. If the answers to those questions pan out, that’s the time to start worrying about how his method works.
A similar set of questions applies here: How often did this police officer see restless animals on days that didn’t have earthquakes? Did he keep records of those times? On other occasions where he saw animals acting funny, did he conclude a quake was coming soon? If not, why not?
From my own experience, I can guarantee that my mom’s cats would act strange a few minutes before a quake. I can also guarantee that they would act strange hours before a quake, and days before, and years before. If, on any given day, they didn’t act strange at all, that, I might take as a warning sign that something’s wrong.
I saw a guy light a cigarette, and suddenly, within months, there was an earthquake.
I’d always had trouble buying that “Butterfly Effect” theory, but I’m having second thoughts now!
I thought the column missed one very important point, that is an unstated premise of this myth - it divides ‘animals’ and ‘humans.’
I could buy one species, or a particular identifiable group of species, being able to predict an earthquake, but the myth seems to posit that all species of animals except humans know when an earthquake is coming, or at least most species of animals. I know Cecil in different parts talked about mammals (aren’t we?), or birds or bees, but Cecil never explicitly addressed this problem with the claim, which is essentially buying into the clearly false idea that we aren’t animals.
I suppose you could argue that point — as well as the idea that birds and spiders aren’t “animals” — but it’s not particularly relevant. Explaining the evolutionary, biological and genetic distinction (or lack thereof) between homo sapiens and every other living thing on the planet would eat up column inches he could better spend answering the actual question. Lest we forget, the column appears in printed format foremost.
There also seems to be a logical disconnect between the data collected (reports of lost animals) and the idea of animals responding to pre-quake stimuli. (Ignoring the Lunar connection in Berkland’s hypothesis.)
Most animals we observe are animals that we can prevent from running away or that were never in anyone’s posession. Likewise, many other factors would be likely to increase the number of lost pets or at least lost pet ads.
I guess I didn’t make my point well. I wasn’t implying spiders and birds aren’t animals, nor asking for differences between humans and every other species.
I’ll try again. I’m looking for the differences between humans and all other species together. There are plenty of abilities only one species has, but I can’t think of anything all species can do except one.
Is there any ability every animal species on earth has except humans? Then, is it reasonable to explore the question that ‘animals’ can predict earthquakes and ‘humans’ can’t?
Regarding the article illustration http://www.straightdope.com/images/art/2008/dope_081212_earthquake.gif
“QUA”? Silly dog. Ducks go “quack”. Dogs go “woof”. 
