I can think of one way that an “unbelieveably small” strike could succeed in degrading Syria’s ability to use chemical weapons, but it would require good intelligence that I don’t know that we have.
It would require tracing the chain of command as far down as we can go, and then start holding people personally responsible for not refusing the order. Even if America cannot kill Assad, it can kill his subordinates, so that their replacements are unwilling to sign their own death warrants by carrying out another attack.
If Obama thought we needed to strike, he should have done so as soon as he was “certain” (the Administration has assured us they have the correct intel). It should have been quick and unannounced. Instead, we’re having the equivalent of a Freshman Dorm Bull Session while the world looks on.
n.b.: I still don’t think we should strike, but if we are going to do so, we should not dither about it the way we are now.
Everyone in the world, including Assad, know that US has the ability to do that. It’s not like Assad needs a reminder.
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Intellectually perhaps. But Saddam, for instance, knew we COULD do whatever we wanted (after the first Gulf War). The disconnect is he didn’t think we WOULD do anything, which was what set up the second Gulf War.
It will certainly be a test for the Obama administration. But you are talking about politically. Militarily, we COULD do anything we want, and an ‘unbelievably small strike’ by the US is still bound to hurt and give notice that we could do it again anytime we wanted too. It will be the ease with which we do it that will really tell, not the size of the strike. It would be like getting into a fight with some old Asian guy where you throw punches at him and try and hit him and he gives you an ‘unbelievably small’ palm strike to the solar plexus knocking the wind out of you. It’s not the blow that really hurts, it’s the fact that he did it to you so easily and there was not much you could do about it.
John Kerry made this ordeal even messier earlier when he made an offhand remark about how Syria could avoid strikes by turning over all chemical weapons.
Syria and Russia immediately agreed.
His aid says that he was just being rhetorical/sarcastic.
So now the admin will somehow need to explain in a speech tomorrow why we still need to strike and how voluntary disarming is not sufficient.
It would be comical if it wasn’t for the fact that the country is being headed by these buffoons.
That is an unreasonably broad reading of the word “assassination”. If it is illegal, it is because the whole strike is illegal, not because we are attacking a particular enemy combatant rather than killing them wholesale.
What about the people of Syria? Don’t they deserve something out of all of this? What about a negotiated deal that requires effort to make a peace and let the political process play out?
Seems like the only ‘play’ US is interested in is the bombs and killings play.
Which only confirms my earlier claim – the goal is to destroy any resemblance to functioning society (another Iraq & Libya) and just let it bleed on the side of the road. And then, come back in a year or so and wonder what prevents these Arabs from forming a democracy.
Actually, it was a brilliant move. I hadn’t read about that, but it’s a master stroke from Russia to try and circumvent a US strike, and if they pull it off they are going to get a bunch of levels of benefit out of this, besides making us look stupid. Hell, if it doesn’t work and we strike anyway they will STILL get a lot of benefit out of this move. Man, those Russians…they are players, no doubt about it.
This will delay things until they fall off the radar when the next Kardashian gets engaged or pregnant.
Bob: No one has turned over anything yet. Let’s not forget how many times over the last 2 years when Syria “welcomed” a chance to negotiate with the rebels.
The incredibly small threat was enough to get the Syrians and Russians to throw a curve ball at us while Congress is getting ready to vote on air strikes.
It would be really cool if they could just kill Bashir al-Assad and maybe whomever was in the office with him. That would be unbelievably small, really well deserved, and would send the right message. I’d write a congratulatory letter.
Let’s see what happens. The strikes are facing near certain defeat in the House, there isn’t much reason for the Syrians to negotiate. The fact that they are open to turning over the weapons is a positive sign.