Fantastic, everybody must admit that. Lets monitor how it goes.
Early reporting:
U.S. And Russia Reach Agreement On Syria’s Chemical Weapons
September 14, 2013, 10:45 AM
The “Hope and Change” motto is now “I meant to do that!”
An encouraging development, certainly. My impression is that the threat of force was effectively used to accomplish a goal that the use of force would not have accomplished half as well.
Or as **BrainGlutton **'s wry statement supposes: Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.
Note that going to Congress for approval, while all but dictated by the overwhelming opposition to military action in Syria, allowed the space for the Russian offer to materialize. There are benefits to following the spirit of the law in the Constitution, it seems… who’da thunk it? Imagine had this been the case with Iraq…
Do you have a sliver of logic or oddball rationale where it could be possible that Obama’s objective was meant to achieve anything less than what it looks like will be achieved?
Certainly he meant the objective, but it took a lot of floundering to get there. E.g., Kerry’s suggestion that Assad give up his chem weapons included a clearly implied “As if!”
Yes indeed, masterful stroke by a President who knows what he’s doing and how to get what he wants. The Russians are lucky to have a guy like him.
Oh, and there’ll be no UNSC resolution out of this - that’s part of the deal - so Obama masterfully worked out a deal without teeth, unless he wants to strike on his own authority, without international approval. Russia will take control of the weapons Syria chooses to declare, and “destroy” them on Russian soil, so that’ll be good.
Also, no international war criminal status for Assad - maybe some of his generals, but Assad remains in power, probably more comfortably in power than he was when Obama was making noises about possibly, maybe attacking in small, almost unnoticeable ways a few days back.
Additionally, the fighting continues. Indeed, this is a huge win for peace and justice, and more importantly, Obama, who has ensured that his name will be forever linked to the outcome of this matter.
Wonder how many people died in Syria today?
Cite for Russia’s seizure of Syria’s stockpile of chemical weapons being part of the agreement, please?
"The senior officials said they expected a U.N. resolution in some form to pass within weeks of a Geneva agreement.
One possible course of action, they said, is the internationally verified transfer of Syria’s chemical stockpiles to Russia, where they eventually would be destroyed."
Oh my god. You mean, there’s a possibility that Russia might take Syria’s chemical weapons, under international verification, and destroy those weapons (again under international verification)? Oh the humanity!
So when Syria starts playing games, the remedy is to go back to the UNSC? Do what we say, or else we will ask again more firmly?
The deal should have included a UN authorization for force if the agreement was breached. Why would any nation have a problem with that if they think we are flying off the handle and Syria really, really wants to do the right thing?
Maybe, eventually. At the earliest, NONE of this starts for the next two months. Lotta killing going on in the meantime.
Essentially, this is “Ok, Syria, you tell us exactly how many CWs you have, and where they are right now, and then turn them over to Russia (who can totally be trusted) for destruction, while some guys from Senegal and France stand around and take pictures.”
I’m certain Assad is trembling… with laughter.
Thank you.
From the same cite:
The Kerry-Lavrov discussions hit snags Friday over ways to ensure all chemical stockpiles are identified, an official familiar with the talks said, but a second official said the two sides were “coming closer to agreement.”
Meeting in Washington with Kuwaiti Emir Sabah Ahmed al-Sabah, Obama said he had told the visiting leader that he hopes the U.S.-Russian discussions “bear fruit.”
“But I repeated what I’ve said publicly, which is that any agreement needs to be verifiable and enforceable,” Obama said.
Appears that this is a sticking point of the possible agreement but not part of the agreement itself, as it stands. But I’d posit that having these weapons in the hands of even a less-than-friendly power such as the Russians is preferable to their existence and usability in a hot war zone.
If they are not used again, lives are saved(well, from that particular method of death-dealing), the US saves face, and a valuable precedent regarding WMD usage is set, i.e; that it is perfectly cromulent for the US/UN/NATO whomever to come down like a ton of bricks on any country using WMD. Naturally, it won’t be as consistent as we like, but it’s a start, and a far better outlook than air strikes, IMHO.
I cannot find a way to agree that overwhelming opposition to military action allowed the space for the Russian offer to materialize. That is for two reasons:
One. I don’t see what happened as Putin’s offer. It may have been mutual between the two leaders, but I see no scenario where Obama was not in the driver’s seat the whole time.
Two. I don’t doubt for one second that Obama would give space to any viable diplomatic option before order the strike he said were necessary and justified.
And you are so right about if only Bush did not lie about his desire to launch war only as a last resort.
Well hey, if it works, then that’s a good thing - honestly. Yes, CWs are bad, m’kay? But the focus has completely shifted from punishment and possible regime change to end the war, to taking away a few tons of unstable, unreliable weapons. The war goes on, and nobody is even thinking about removal of Assad. He’s getting what HE wants - staying in power - in exchange for weapons that are far less effective at killing in a full-on war. Bombs and Bullets are better than CWs in about 90% of instances, I’d say, based on total casualties since March 2011 when this all got rolling.
But then, it does allow some folks to say “we’ve done something” when in reality, they’ve done very little.
Nobody got shot and results happened quickly. I’ll give Obama a decent grade on this, whether it’s luck or skill.
Could it have been handled better? No doubt. But a B+ is appropriate.
Sounds about right to me- I might give him a B or B-.
Yeah, so far so good…
But “So far” is, what?–a whole 15 hours now?
As for monitoring: There is a nice, specific timetable for doing lots of good things. But the only punishment mentioned in the agreement for not meeting that timetable is -gasp!-(play scary music)—passing a resolution at the UN.
We’re talking about a ruthless dictator who is fighting for his life. He knows that the UN will never pass any serious resolution against him, because Russia has veto powers at the Securtiy Council.
So—I predict:
1.According to the timetable, UN inspectors will arrive in Syria next week.
Not according to the timetable, they will be shot at repeatedly by snipers.
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The UN will spend 6 months debating how to protect the inspectors, which nations will send their soldiers to create a UN force, etc. Then another 6 months to debate whether that blue-helmeted force will be allowed to carry weapons, or just act as observers.
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Assad will build entire new bunkers , visible to US satelites, to hide his chemical weapons. But of course, the bunkers are only storage facilities for a baby food manufacturer, and they were not mentioned in the original UN resolution, so they are off limits to UN inspectors.
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Eventually,(2 years from now?) one small box holding 5 chemical artillery shells will be “discovered”, because Assad brought it out of the bunker for the purpose of letting the inspectors have something to do.
4a. The New York Times will report that some chemical weapons has been discovered.
4b. At 8:00 pm, CNN will show graphic powerpoint charts listing each artillery shell and it’s potential kill radius.
4c. At 9:00 pm, The world press will begin referring to Assad’s “cache” of chemical weapons
4d. By 10 pm the “cache” will be referred to as “Assad’s last remaining cache” of chemical weapons.
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The now-famouse “last remaining cache” of weapons will be displayed on TV as it is loaded onto a ship bound for Russia, to be dismantled by experts.
5a. The world press will be announce that the cache contained the only known chemical weapons left in Assad’s possession, and all of them were dismantled -
The NY Times will say how wonderful it is to see the world and the UN acting so decisively.
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All sides will declare that Assad has fullfilled the UN’s requriements, the problem is solved forever.
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Assad will decide not to use his remaining chemical weapons, at least for a few more months.
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Assad will instead attack Israel.
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Israel will respond with a few bombs on Damasus and Assad’s air bases. 10 Scud missile launchers will be destroyed, 100 Syrian soldiers will die, and one bomb falls on a private home, killing 5 children.
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The world will condemn Israel for being the agressor and bombing children of a poor, innocent nation which poses no threat because it no longer has any chemical weapons because of the great diplomacy of Obama.
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Israeli intelligence will release photos of Assad’s chemical weapons.
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The world will ignore the photos --which are obviously fake, because Obama was such a great Diplomat of Peace.
and then they will condemn Israel for using the photos to try to distract attention from its cruel and intentional bombing of those 5 children.
Maybe there have been behind-the-scenes conversations whereby the USA has pushed this compromise onto Russia. But I don’t think so. I just don’t see where we (speaking as an American) have leverage to make Russia do anything it doesn’t want to do.
But you could be right. If so, it’s* really *a masterstroke rather than just the well-positioned bluff plus background diplomacy that I currently see this as.
They are not turning them over to Russia. All production facilities must be destroyed by November.
From the same TPM link posted earlier: