I don’t really keep up with local opinion, but Coakley is running a pretty negative television campaign right now. It didn’t work out against Patrick when Healey tried it (she ran a very negative campaign).
I keep hearing that MA likes to balance out their overwhelming Dem politicians with a Republican or two…maybe this is the one. I also understand that the health care proposal is unpopular in MA since they are home to a lot of medical supply manufacturers who will have their products taxed under Obamacare. Add that on top of the rising costs and wait times to see a doctor in MA Commonwealth Care and I don’t see a reason why Brown can’t win.
I live in Mass and I’m not in touch with the politics here. But I’m * guessing * that most people have actually been paying very little attention to the election, assuming mostly that it was a done deal. So the perceived closeness of the election will probably turn out well for Coakley in that it will bring out all the voters who up til now would have been content to stay home and let someone else vote her into office.
As far as the candidates go, neither one has much presence or name recognition, either popular or not, so I doubt that’s driving Brown’s surge.
I can tell you that both parties are starting to drop some serious coin on TV ads – none of which have swayed me one way or another (Coakley: “Brown is a meanie”, Brown: “Coakley is saying mean things about me and that makes me sad.”)
I spoke to a well-known republican strategist a few days ago about this and he thought, at the time (When Brown was up by 2) that Coakley wins by 5. One current poll has him up 15 now. But I don’t know how much that changes things. I hope he pulls it out. Not only because he’s a Rep., but because I’m tired of seats belonging to one party. Tired of the sense of entitlement. and sick and tired of anything with the taint of Kennedy.
I hope your right. But I don’t think those states are as strongly Dem as MA. But if he does go, and Coakley loses, that’s an even more significant win for the Reps. And really, really bad news for everything Obama. But I don’t underestimate the speechifying of the silver-tongued one.
I’ll give you VA but NJ is the bluest of blue. Also, I think Obama’s run out of gas in the speechifying department. I just don’t think he has the passion or the mojo anymore.
Tons of cash flowing in for both of them, so I assume that the long weekend in Mass will be covered in flyers, ads, robo-calls, etc.
Today’s WSJ editorial page (yeah, I know, hush) has Dorothy Rabinowitz reminding us all of Coakley’s role in the Amirault witchunts. Depending on how much that article is shared and read, that might cost Coakley a couple of votes as well.
For those of you who don’t mind reading the far right WSJ editorial page…
The majority of WSJ readers probably are going to vote Republican anyway, but now that the editorial is written, it’s out there, and will be accessible and read by people who aren’t regular WSJ readers, which might include some people on the fence.
Yeah, but the Journal itself is read by more people than just the Right. I can see this editorial hitting a lot of mailboxes, and being passed around. It is more of a tool to be used by the Right.
From a minor pollster that has, in the past, trended to about a 25 point Republican bias. Take that into account, and the fact that they only have Brown up by 15 actually looks like a positive for Coakley, to the extent that it means anything at all.
That said, the reputable polls do currently look like it really could plausibly go either way. This is definitely not a race that either side wants to just let coast on its momentum.
My gut tells me that more Dems get out to vote and Coakley wins.
How do MA folks feel about the health care bill, considering their state already has their own deal going? Will the new bill help them in any way or affect their own health care plan?
(my highlights)
Was it necessary? Two ad hominen against your own quote?
It’s not like you’re quoting from Mein Kampf or The Little Red Book, you know.
It’d be devastating for the Dems to lose this seat. Not only for the obvious filibuster issues, but also because it could (and would) be used as a sign of Obama’s decline.
I agree with Magellna01 that the whole “Kennedy seat” stuff is undemocratic to say the least.