They only need to secure 50 votes; Pence will break the tie.
Whether it happens today, tomorrow, or next week, Kavanaugh is going to be on the Court bench. The GOP is wholly owned by the billionaire class and Kavanaugh is the guy that’s going to help them gut everything from civil liberties to basic labor and wage protections.
Drunk people don’t act in a way that is completely different from how they are at least inclined to act when sober. Someone who is violent, or racist, or an abuser or whatever when drunk has those tendencies when sober - although they might keep them suppressed. Alcohol reduces inhibitions, it doesn’t change your personality.
As you are not me, you can’t be certain what inclinations I have when I’m sober, so it makes sense that you can’t share my certainty. I, however, do know, and can be certain.
The vote this AM would be for cloture, right?
Because one Senator will be absent from the vote on Saturday, there will only be 99 votes, so there cannot be a tie.
As of last night, it looked like they had 47.
That’s correct. After the cloture vote, a minimum of 30 hours of debate before the vote to confirm him.
There are 51 Republicans. So, they have 51 votes. Or 50, if the absent Senatorthat Fear Itself was talking about is a Republican, but that’s still enough.
There has never been any sign that any Republican will break their their party. That isn’t how it works anymore.
Fair enough.
I recall the days of Joe Lieberman and have little patience for the guys who seem to help the other side more than your own team.
I don’t think they’ll schedule the confirmation vote without him. Looks like he is planning to fly right back to DC after his daughter’s wedding. That might push the vote to Sunday AM, but that’s probably not so big a deal for the Republicans, I don’t think.
Leland Keyser is gravely ill. The photos are heart wrenching. By putting her in this circus, Ford has made her suffering much worse. It’s too bad you don’t want to get all sides of the story.
The key point is that Ford did not contact Keyser before going public with her unsubstantiated claims.
Are we now supposed to check up on the health of everyone we know before saying or doing important things?
The story went public before Ford could do anything about it. She sent the letter with the expectation it would be held in confidence. It was leaked.
I hate it when people say this. Your inhibitions are part of your personality, so yes your personality is changed. And when you’re drunk you misread social cues so while sober you and drunk you would never get in a fight unless you thought you had no choice, sober you and drunk you aren’t equally capable of knowing where that is.
Keep saying “unsubstantiated”. It’s totally working.
Of course, the fact that she had discussed the incident years before is a form of substantiation. The fact that she came forward before Kavanaugh was even the nominee is a form of substantiation. The fact that she repeatedly invited an FBI investigation into the incident and the Republicans have repeatedly worked to block or hamstring one is a form of substantiation. Circumstantial, perhaps, but a lot more than Kavanaugh, who lied, bullied, blubbed and blustered under questioning, has.
Obviously if there is a no vote on cloture, that is bad, but the undecided Senators, or even no votes could vote for cloture under the guise that it is time to get the matter over with one way or the other.
However, I do believe that Murkowski said that she would announce her decision today.
I, too, would bet that they’ll all come home and vote with their party in the end. BUT they may do some protracted dithering first. We’ll find out shortly whether I’m right about the vote.
The guy is such a mediocre writer. Almost every sentence starts with “I”. Why does he have to come across as such an intellectual lightweight on top of being dishonest and partisan? Why??
Sure, but why should your belief system be a matter of interest to the rest of us? 
Thus, she has had five years to contact Leland Keyser and PJ Smythe to get their recollection of that party and did not do so. That is reckless and irresponsible behavior. I spend more effort on my average post here on SDMB.
Saving the above-average ones for a special occasion, I assume.