I know this sounds like a stupid question, and it probably is, but I just wanted to check in here,–not for a specific formula–to see if anyone has won, or has good things to say about them, and I say them because I’m guessing that there are several different schemes and the like floating around in the cyberworld.
Yes any system CAN win.
Sure. But does any system perform better than guessing?
Of course not.
There is no such thing as a true Random Number Generator. The Lottery with their numbered balls, stirred by air is honest but flawed. The balls cannot be identical enough to make the result truly random.
I used to play Keno in Oregon. They draw 20 out of 80 numbers every 4 minutes. They don’t really have a random number genertor, instead they have several programs attempting to emulate randomness, but they are just numbers set in a large file. These programs are changed on an unknown schedule. This is about as close as they get to random.
Source: My sister used to work in IT for the lottery.
Commercial lottery systems work by playing not just one set of numbers but a large set of them - they systematically pick and play various permutations of numbers. The cost of these tickets will then be split among the participants, who will get a share of the winnings. This means that your chances of winning something are higher than if you just play your own tickets by yourself. But of course playing the lottery still has a negative expectation value - and with these systems even more so, since you’re not just contributing to the price of the tickets but also paying a fee to the organizer of the system. So in short, it’s crap.
The 2022 movie “Jerry and Marge Go Large” is based on the true story of a retired couple from Michigan who did indeed win $26 million over a period of time playing a lottery called WinFall. What they did was apparently 100% legal, and took advantage of a statistical bias which they had observed in the game.
They generally have a few sets of balls and a few baskets and they “randomly” switch them around for each drawing. We all know that it’s not truly random if we want to get pedantic. This is irrelevant to the question in the OP which is can you use this to generate a winning system?
Jerry and Marge Selbee used a system that worked to win a lot of lottery money. The system wasn’t based on picking the right numbers though, they took advantage of a ‘rolldown’ process when no one won large lottery jackpots and the money was available to the winners who had picked less than all 6 numbers in the lottery. It was loophole in the lottery system that they took advantage of. See Jerry and Marge Go Large, a movie based on their system.
Some lotteries have been won by people who were able to purchase a large percentage of the possible number combinations. In one case, Florida IIRC, the big jackpot required only picking 5 numbers and a group managed to purchase almost all the number and win. They risked not getting to buy every combination because they were making a mess of the lottery system with that effort and stores stopped selling them all the tickets they wanted because they weren’t able to process other customers tickets. They also risked other people coming up with all 5 numbers and resulting in a loss from a divided payoff. Also not really a system to get the right numbers.
ETA: Ninja’d by @F.U.Shakespeare on Jerry and Marge.
Thank you @TriPolar for your additional information on the Selbees’ method.
If someone had a formula that worked, they wouldn’t post it.
They would use it.
There is one system for lotteries that have winning ties split the proceeds. Avoid picking numbers that others pick. That doesn’t improve your odds of winning; it improves your odds of a higher payout conditional on your winning. So it increases your (nonetheless still negative) expected value.
Dates are popular to pick. So choose higher random numbers, ones above 12.
If you tend to pick numbers in patterns (methinks we all do) try using Excel’s random number generator and skip numbers 1-12. Try this function to produce numbers from 1-70:
=ROUND((RAND()*70 +0.5),0)
Corrections welcome: I did this off the top of my head. I haven’t tried this, because I’ve never played the lottery.
Well ok, there are a few ways to play the lottery that give you a positive expected return, but they are pretty involved. Dark web link:
LOL, only if you consider wikipedia to be the dark web. The involved part is staying out of jail.
In theory, it is possible in some lotteries (namely those that apply parimutuel betting) to make a positive expected return by playing numbers not played by other players. In such lotteries, there are no fixed pre-determined prizes (such as $7 for three correct picks); rather, a predetermined percentage of the overall prize pool is allocated to each category of winnings, and this percentage is then split evenly among all the winners in that category. So by picking numbers that other players don’t tend to pick, you can’t increase your chances of winning, but you can increase the amount you get in case you win. This can affect your expected return.
I don’t know about American lotteries, but most European lotteries follow this system.
Bingo. I’m a horseplayer, and I know that there is no system at the track. I used to laugh at the classified ads in the Daily Racing Form that advertised systems. I never bought them, though I’ve seen a few. They’re typically arcane (“If the horse finished in the money two outings ago, but not after a layoff, at this distance in the slop, and has a Beyer of 78 or more on a fast track, consider for today”), and as useless as mammary glands on a male bovine.
The only people making money on systems are those selling systems. When it comes to racing, systems don’t work.
I was also surprised that anyone fell for these systems, but I recall one at least that was highly successful.
The organisers offered a selection of “winners” each week. There was no charge for participants but if they signed up, they promised to send 10% of their winnings to the organisers.
The scheme depended on choosing races with a small number of horses and having a large enough membership to send enough combinations of potential winners to guarantee a return.
The New York State lottery used to work that way. Don’t know if it still does. I ended up winning $400 from two fourth place tickets because the total jackpot had grown very large. I don’t know if any US lotteries still work that way.
Or, just =RANDBETWEEN(13, 70)
It would be cool if they sampled some quantum noise to get something truly random. To answer the OP, no.
In the UK, premium bonds are a type of lottery where “investors” buy a ticket (premium bond)
which lasts forever. Each month, ERNIE (the Electronic Random Number Indicator Equipment)
generates random numbers which are used to determine which bonds win a prize.
(It’s like investing some money, but instead of getting a certain percent interest, you get
the chance to win a lot more !)
The original ERNIE used thermal noise from gas neon diodes to get random numbers.
The second generation used thermal noise from transistors.
The cuurent version uses quantum technology to produce random numbers from light.
Very cool!