I heard the suggestion that we really shouldn’t want to be oil-self-sufficient. Or rather, it would be nice to have the capability of being self-sufficient, but we should not actually do so.
What we should do instead, is continue to import oil, thus using up the rest of the world’s supply first, before we start to use up our own. Then, as the rest of the world starts to run out of oil, we can crank up our own production. Then we could export oil at any price we name, and also rule the world by virtue of having a monopoly on oil.
The EIA is the best source for this type of information. A lot of different ways to look at this as there are normal seasonal variations in consumption. Here’s a couple of looks.
10 Year Seasonal Analysis Notice that March 2012 - March 2013 is either the lowest or near the bottom at all points along the curve.
Now certainly it is true that a portion of our decline has been related to the economy. Also, a portion of our decline has related to the higher prices over the past several years (consumption is not completely inelastic); however, a portion is also just people being more efficient. The vehicle fleet is becoming more efficient with increased fuel economy standards.
As far as forecasts, the IEA, which is the most reputable source has long-term (out to 2035) oil demand declining not only for the U.S. but essentially all OECD countries. However, growth in the non-OECD countries, particularly China, India, and the Middle East far outweighs the decline in the OECD causing a net increase in demand by about 12 million barrels per day by 2035. The United States and the OECD in general have declining coal and oil demand and increasing natural gas and renewables.