No, Trump hasn’t died as far as I know. Don’t get excited/depressed (delete as appropriate).
Hypothetical: Trump leaves office peacefully and without any prosecution of himself, his family or his business empire. He then resumes doing whatever it was he did for his businesses for a couple of years and, eventually, dies. However, it seems to me that much of the Trump business empire relies heavily on Donald himself: his personality, branding and self-promotion; his connections to all sorts of people; his unique ability to manage debt; etc. And all of these are skills and qualities that his offspring (IMHO) lack in part or as a whole.
My question therefore is: IYHO, what is likely to happen to all the Trump businesses in a post-Donald era? Are Don Jr, Eric and Ivanka likely to be able to keep it all running? Will they dump all the debt into a few entities, close them off and then shrink everything down to a few key manageable businesses? Will the people who did business with Donald still want to do business with the next generation? In short - and in this hypothetical - what do you think happens next?
I’ve put this in IMHO because it’s not about the politics and it’s highly speculative (and thus probably not GD material).
In my view it’s likely that the value of the businesses will drop dramatically without Donald. The kids will try (out of earnestness or hubris) to keep all the plates spinning but there will be a string of failures that will further reduce the overall value of the brand.
The resorts and hotels will probably keep their value and keep bringing money in, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Jared took a hand in managing some of that, but a lot of the peripheral businesses (like clothing and everything else Trump has slapped his name onto) will fall away. Ivanka’s product lines are also likely to be scaled back or sold off. In the end there will be enough for the three of them (I have no idea what Barron will do) to keep going but the brand will never be what it once was.
Many experts have stated that Trump is not a very good businessman, with all his ventures being less profitable than simply putting it in a bank and drawing interest. With Trump gone, and somebody competent as CEO, his empire might well become more profitable.
I think a few different things will happen. Despite continuing to use only the ‘best’ lawyers, there will be serious legal scrutiny of the inheritance, to make sure that any, shall we say, financial irregularities aren’t included. One thing people have discussed in other threads is that Trump’s taxes may show that he’s been skirting many issues that may or may not be legal, but slip by because they’d take more man-hours to pursue than it’s worth. Once he’s dead, and the politics of it are less virulent, I figure this would be the perfect chance to go over it with a microscope.
I also suspect that no matter how ironclad the will is, the personalities in the Trump family are going to litigate the hell out of it, during which even more dirt will come up on all parties. After which the Trump brand will not be worthless, but it will be devalued. As the result of this, plus all the legal expenses, I figure any borderline properties will be sold off/consolidated, the solid cash earners will be put in the hands of more or less competent managers, and the winners of the legal battles will use the remaining wealth and income to pursue careers in politics and verbal excess.
Ivanka will come into her own once her dad is out of the way and saying stupid shit. She actually is smart and at least aware what decency is supposed to mean and could be something along the vein of a Kim Kardashian.
My WAG is that if they collapse or sell off the everything under the Trump brand, the kids may be able to find consulting jobs. It wouldn’t surprise me if there’s some large companies out there that would pay them a few million/yr to do some consulting work or sit on a board. In either case, either actually doing the work or just holding the title so the business can list them as a board member/consultant.
Especially if it can be spun to suggest that they were just puppets and even though dad sucks, they still have a lot of business experience and have something to bring to the table.
This. Trump dies. Each of the children believes that there is more wealth than there actually is, and that one or more of the other children has hidden and / or stolen what the others should rightfully share. There is particular friction between subsets of half-siblings; illegitimate children come out of the woodwork based on the same belief, and need to be verified / denied via DNA testing. Each child sues each others, and the estate, and after a decade or so a much-diminished prize is distributed among equally the kids.
I hadn’t even considered sibling infighting. What I thought was more likely was that one or more of Donald’s less savoury associates might offer to “help” Don Jr or Eric with their businesses, resulting in them being forced to allow the businesses to be used for money laundering or to have the whole house of cards fall.
I’ve not seen anything from either of the elder boys to suggest they’re any great shakes as businessmen in their own right, and both have shown themselves to be spectacularly naive at times. Ivanka, well… she does seem to have the brains of the lot (unless you count Tiffany’s decision to stay well away as a sign of superior intelligence) so maybe she’ll actually have some success. Or not. We’ll see. And Barron remains a wild card. Who knows what he’ll be like after college?
ETA: And what of Melania? I’m guessing she’s unlikely to inherit the businesses but that’d be a twist. I doubt she’d run them herself but she could well appoint someone outside the family if she ends up with the power to do so.
To be fair, even among us normals, when a parent dies things tend to play out like that. I’ve had a few friends get into huge blowout fights (sometimes involving lawyers and courts) over money they think is there and they think they are owned (which isn’t there and/or they aren’t owed) resulting in them really never speaking to each other again.
How close are Melania and Barron with the rest of the family? I assume he’s left a significant chunk of change to her/them in his will. But if she/they’d be happy to leave, I’d imagine the rest of the family could buy out whatever she owns after the dust settles. If for no other reason, to make sure they don’t have access to the Trump name.
A book was published last month that suggests she’s smarter than many give her credit for. According to reviews of the book, the reason she and Barron delayed moving to Washington was because she was renegotiating the prenuptial agreement to put Barron on an equal footing with the other children.
As for the Trump fortune, how much of the value is related to the brand name? Do people pay to stay at a Trump hotel or buy a condo in a Trump building because it’s a good deal or because of the brand? How do his developments compare to those of other developers?
Trump’s only real skill is scamming, and he’s taught his children how to do that. They would otherwise probably be able to continue doing that, but opportunistic in-fighting–and, who knows, likely criminal exposure–will probably eventually force them to start other scams independently.
What makes you think there’s going to be anything of value to inherit? Are all the loans the businesses have with whoever manages to loan them money payable only by DJT and disappear on his death? Quite unlikely; they’re likely tied to the enterprises that run the properties that were mortgaged for the loans. I thought the general notion was that his net worth was negative if you take into account how much debt his businesses had. I suspect the entire organization declares bankruptcy soon after DJT’s death, as soon as they clandestinely move what remaining liquid assets there are out of the companies.
I have to assume that no matter how far in the red he may be on paper, there’s a significant amount of money in off shore accounts or being held by other individuals or corporations with no official relationship with the Trump name or at least a ‘legal’ one (think money laundering set up).
There might not be billions, but a few hundred million divided among his survivors isn’t nothing.