Of course, we all know about the veto threats, and clearly Our Leader spent some time last night getting America ready for the idea of ignoring the Security Council in order to protect America from the dreadful threat of international drone aircraft armed with nuclear anthrax. Yet there can be little doubt that it would be much better for the Bushistas if they could actually win that vote, even if France, Russia, or China vetoes. One hastens to note that none of these have actually explicitly said they would veto.
As it stands now for: US, UK of course. Spain
Against: France, China (possible abstention) Russia (probably), Germany, Syria
Bulgaria, legendary breeding ground for KGB thugs, for. Already beaming with joy over its recent advances in trade status as regards America. Bought and paid for, FOB.
Pakistan(?) probably against, but not a solid bet. Buyable and not subject to the rigors of public opinion, not being saddled by the democratic structures we are so eager to bestow upon Iraq.
Mexico - polls say the people are solidly opposed. But as Porfirio Diaz once remarked, “Pity poor Mexico! So far from God and so close to the USA.” Could be done.
Chile - doable.
Angola, Cameroon, Guinea - One of those ironies of history, where very small nations suddenly have enormous influence, and are enormously influenced. National basket cases, especially Angola, a playground for brutal politics and exotic diseases. Man in the street likely niether knows nor cares about Iraq. Desperately in need of foreign aid.
Now theres the thing: it would be hard to fault the leadership of these for falling in line with the USA even if that is a distasteful prospect. I would dearly love to believe that I am a citizen of a great and magnanimous nation, one that offers aid for purely humanitarian motives, and far too noble to use such as a threat against the helpless and hungry. I harbor no such illusions. They are eminently buyable, and I cannot blame them. (One has to wonder if this might not have some bearing on Our Leaders remarkable conversion into an anti-Aids activist.)
So it could be done. Barely. If America gets all the buyable nations, we will go ahead with the vote, if we know the outcome in advance. Then GeeDubya can say “The UN was behind us, but France and/or (Germany, Russia, China) backstabbed our noble cause.” I think Putin would rather nail his pecker to a tree than deal himself out of the post-war oil goodies, probably abstain as will China.
And so to war.