One small sectarian hair in the butter needs to be noted. The Iraqi defense minister in charge of the all of the Iraqi security forces is a Sunni and the raid was in a Shi’ite area. When we support the security forces in operations like this we will be seen by the Shia as aiding the Sunnis. This sectarian bitterness is beyond our ability to do a damned thing to ease and we will be everyone’s enemy in short order.
The road from Basra and Kuwait on the way north at the onset of the war was relatively easy, for a war that is. The road south to withdraw might not be all that easy.
In view of GW’s unblemished record of failure in previous projects I was uneasy at his first election. I’m now quite afraid of the consequences of having an incompetent setting national policy and goals.
Again, this was my first initial thought. However, on reflection I think it DOES matter. For one thing the Iraqi’s are either unwilling or incapable of forming a government. So, us waiting on them to do so seems to me to be a mistake. Ok, we gave them a few months to get their shit together…and by the looks of things we are no further along the road to a fully formed Iraq government than we were at the elections. At some point we need to just admit that this thing isn’t going to work at all…and I think we are either rapidly approaching that point or have already crossed it.
As to whats best for American…well, I’m unsure. Since we have lost what little support we had world wide for this stupid invasion we have been increasingly carrying all the water. Even the Brits are looking squirelly at this point. In addition, the war has become increasingly unpopular here in the states as well. At somepoint we really WILL start seeing the kinds of protests we saw in the late 60’s and early 70’s…and at that point this thing will be completely out of control with politicians trying to jump on the bandwagon. Perhaps it IS in our best interests to look long and hard at this latest series of events, at the ‘request’ for us to withdrawl…and we should consider doing so. In an orderly manner instead of a fiasco like when we fled from Vietnam.
I know what you are getting at John (or I think I do) as far as whats best for the US, and to a certain degree I’m sympathetic to that…but maybe its time to look at a different way. Fuck it…let our Euro brethren give it their best shot at smoothing things over and diplomacy. Good guy bad guy them. Hell, they couldn’t fuck it up and worse than we have (well, ok…they probably could at that but you never know).
XT: I think a pretty good case can be made that getting the hell out as fast as we can is in the best interest of the US. In fact, my position isn’t all that different. I’m just advocating that we don’t do anything rash. Start the clock ticking now, and start bringing the troops home. If we need to position them near Iraq for some time “just in case”, fine. We can argue about what the best timetable is, but I’m convinced we need some timetable. I’m less concerned about the rate of removal than that we start the process. Can we agree on that? We’re not going to bring all the troops home in 1 day, so whether it’s 6 months or 12 months isn’t so important. (Not to belittle the fact that more soldiers will likely die the longer it takes to pull out).
We needed to start the planned when Murtha sounded off, or even before, as I think you and I agreed in a previous thread. Withdrawal is going to be exceedingly dicey and needs to be meticulously planned and carried out. In the very last stages we probably will need the protection of the Iraqi army for the last few out the door.
Certainly…I agree. I’m not proposing we pull out tomorrow…in fact I said as much earlier. Only that we seriously consider beginning our withdrawl. I certainly agree we need a timetable. For myself I think we should immediately inform the Iraqi’s that plans are begun to begin the withdrawl. We should then give them a realistic time table for withdrawl. Also, I’d like to see our forces postured into a more defensive stance…increasingly leave the day to day security up to the Iraqi’s while we pull back. That will give us all (and especially the Iraqi’s) a good idea of how it will pan out in the end. Realistically I’d be surprised if we could even get the first troops out within 2-3 months…and have the whole force out (including heavy equipment) by years end.
We need to start now though to make our withdrawl orderly…AND to give the Iraqi’s time to spin up (as much as they are able) to fill the void we’ll be leaving. I’m not hopeful that Iraq will hold together once we are gone. The militia problem is as bad or worse than the Sunni insurgency…and Iraq is still awash with foreign terrorist wanabe’s and ‘freedom fighters’. Sectarian divisions and violence and fundamentalist religion…its an explosive mix that, once we bolt, will probably…well, explode.
My two bits: the “Shia parties” will invite us elsewhere the minute they can form a “stable government” with a “legitimate” (whatever the Hell that means under these circumstances) entity. They are willing to let us keep on dying to fight the “terrorists” but not willing to let us interfere with legitimate neighborhood militias, or “death squads”, depending. A civil war between Shia and Sunni can only have one outcome, assuming everyone else stays out. I suspect that the Shia leadership will mostly be concerned with manuevering the US into guaranteeing non-intervention from other state actors while the whomp they living tar out of the Sunni insurgency. Then there will be peace. Of a sort.
We broke it, and can’t fix it. If I believed that we could, I would believe in trying to. But I don’t believe that, so I say we get the Hell out of Baghdodge at the earliest excuse, however flimsy. A whole bunch of people are going to die, but fewer of them will be ours. That sucks, realpolitik is for the morally bankrupt, but the facts are stark and staring us in the face.
I don’t think anyone in this thread has given any indication of that; in fact, I think the overwhelming sentiment thus far is that there is no solution. Nice attempt to get the partisan bickering going, though.
I just loved the cartoon that showed a jet airliner labled “Iraq” headed nose straight down toward the ground with GW at the controls and a guy labled “Press” or maybe it was “Media” beside him.
The caption was GW saying to the “Medai” something like, “You should report that the toilets are working perfectly.”
What do you suggest we do in the ~3 year span between now and then?
I think that was the point the other poster was trying to make. Bush’s comments the other day notwithstanding, I don’t think we’ll have many troops in Iraq by then.
What’s in our best (material) interest is for those fat Iraqi oil fields to start feeding the world market, driving down prices and weakening OPECs power.
We’re not going to pull out if the probability of Iraq lapsing into a civil war or some other non oil-producing state. Preferrably one that favors US oil companies…