[QUOTE=Proudfeet]
I assume you’re kidding here. Statistics isn’t a complete mystery to you, is it?
You’re saying that if there is a population of 10,000 yellow marbles and 1 blue marble in a given bag, and if someone randomly drew a marble out of the bag, you coudn’t guess what the color of that marble was much more likely to have been?
If (and I don’t know) the incidence of white-on-black rape is stasticially low and IF there’s no evidence one way or the other, then the likelihood of her telling the truth is low, just as the liklyhood of the marble-draw-er above’s claim to have drawn the one blue marble out of the 10,000 yellow marbles is unlikely.
Should it be investigated anyway? Of course. We should always investigate all claims of crimes of violence however unlikely. That said, your “Population-based stats have no bearing on the veracity of an individual claim.” comment was just insane.
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Are you fucking stupid? If someone in your example reached into the bucket and pulled out a blue marble, do you tell them they are full of shit? If a man tells you he won the powerball, do you tell him there is no way it happened because it is too unlikely? Leaving aside the fact that the majority of rapes are not committed on the based on race, so using that as a means of distinction is illogical. It’s like saying you can’t be raped in Friday the 13th because historically speaking, less rapes have occurred that day. How many times do you think a AA with Nigerian ancestorry has raped a white women with Polish-German background in a duplex house located within a cul-de-sac on a Tuesday afternoon? Sorry, ma’am couldn’t have happened that way, too unlikely. Race is not causation in the overwhelming majority of rape cases. It has nothing to do with why they happened anymore than the hairstyle of the accuser, or the type of milk the accused drinks. It’s a non-issue,
[QUOTE=Rick]
Standard practice for photo line ups is to show 5-8 non suspects for each suspect to make sure that a victim is making a correct and valid ID.
This line up violated every ethical standard for photo line ups published by the FBI or any state or local police agency, and you don’t have a problem with it? :rolleyes:
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No, I don’t have too much of a problem with it. NIfong, wrongfully assumed she was telling the truth. Yes, there were obvious problems with lineup but let’s look at the situation form the other side. Let’s assume he did what you said there were roughly 40 “suspects”. You want her to look through 240-360 pictures of twenty something white young men searching for the 3 she accused. I’m sorry but that is a hard thing to do just using pictures. Not impossible, but, in my opinion unnecessary. If she recognized them, she would have probably been able to pick them out anyway. The obvious problem was that she was made the whole thing up. Probably picked 3 people she recognized from the party. The outcome would have probably been the same in that case. Had she not been able to pick them out, it wouldn’t really prove that the attack hadn’t happened.